Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
122 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

Showers and thunderstorms that will develop this afternoon will be
exiting our eastern counties around 00Z. Will carry a PoP in these
areas into mid evening just in case this trend is too fast. The upper
trough and cold front will shift quickly east overnight, with a
decent and north flow may gust at 15-20 mph at times. Low clouds will
envelop the area behind the front with modest cold advection. Lows
should be in the middle to upper 40s.

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

A long awaited dry and warmer trend in the weather is foreseen
beginning Sunday but lasting into next week. For Sunday and Monday
specifically, a surface through mid level ridge axis will shift east
into the Southeast U.S. Low level flow will become southerly and
temperatures at 8h will warm into the 8-10C range Sunday and into the
13-16C range Monday. This will bring highs in the upper 60s to lower
70s Sunday to the upper 70s to lower 80s on Monday. Patchy fog will
be possible Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

High temperatures will continue a warming trend through mid to late
week. Highs should be in the lower 80s for most areas, possibly
nearing 85 Tuesday and Wednesday in northwest Alabama.

The medium range models are showing a strong upper ridge in the Gulf
of Mexico through the lower Atlantic coastal areas on Wednesday into
Thursday. Then, model differences appear with the Canadian and ECMWF
keeping the upper lows in the Great Lakes and TX/Mexican plateaus
unphased. This would bring a deeper eastern U.S. trough in the
northern stream southeast, along with a late week cold front. This
appears to be more favored. The GFS loosely phases the lows into a
stronger trough and cold front Thursday night into Friday which
appears less certain given the strength of the Gulf of Mexico ridge
this week. In either case, low PoPs will be mentioned Thursday into
Friday before drying takes place by Friday night into Saturday (Day
8). Lows by Saturday morning may drop back into the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

Ceilings in the 020-030agl range (MVFR) may lift or scattered into
the 030-035agl range (VFR). This is not a certainty, so have opted to
keep the layer as a ceiling for now. Isolated to scattered SHRA and
possibly TSRA are expected to develop after 20Z in northwest into
north central AL. However, due to uncertainty on TSRA, have opted for
VCSH at this time from 21-23Z at KMSL and 22-01Z at KHSV. A frontal
passage will shift the wind from southwest to northwest this evening
with low ceilings below 010agl (IFR) expected to move in. Clearing of
these clouds is expected late Sunday morning by 15-17Z with a return
to VFR conditions.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...17

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
134 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-250945-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
134 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. A few of these storms could become strong to severe in
intensity. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

A strong storm system will approach the Tennessee Valley late this
week. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through
Friday, depending on the timing of this system and its associated
cold front.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
possible this afternoon and evening.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

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