Ice Storm Warning 1, NWS Huntsville, AL

840 
WWUS44 KHUN 152040
WSWHUN

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
240 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

ALZ001>007-016-160615-
/O.CON.KHUN.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Cullman-
Including the cities of Florence, Muscle Shoals, Sheffield, 
Tuscumbia, Russellville, Red Bay, Moulton, Town Creek, Athens, 
Huntsville, Decatur, and Cullman
240 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing and Wind Chill temperatures. Ice
  accumulations up to one half inch. Snow and sleet accumulations
  of up to one inch, especially in northwest portions of Alabama.
  Wind Chill temperatures will fall into the single digits this
  evening and below zero in some portions of northwest and north
  central Alabama overnight.  

* WHERE...Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin AL, Lawrence, Limestone, 
  Madison, Morgan and Cullman counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible, especially by late this
  morning and through much of the day. These hazardous travels
  conditions will impact the evening and morning commute. Wind
  chill temperatures will make for dangerous conditions if out 
  and about tonight. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages will be likely due to the
  expected ice accumulations, which in some rural areas could last
  for a few days. The combination of bitter cold temperatures
  tonight through Wednesday will make conditions particularly
  hazardous for those that do lose power. Residents should be
  prepared and have an emergency supply kit ready in event of a
  long duration power outage. Travel conditions will be very slow
  to improve on Tuesday into Wednesday, even after the
  precipitation ends. Dress accordingly and be prepared for
  hazardous temperatures this evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages.

&&

$$

ALZ008>010-TNZ076-096-097-160615-
/O.CON.KHUN.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
Including the cities of Albertville, Boaz, Guntersville, Arab, 
Scottsboro, Fort Payne, Rainsville, Lynchburg, Fayetteville, 
Winchester, Sewanee, Decherd, Estill Springs, and Cowan
240 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and light snow expected.
  Snow and sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice
  accumulations up to one quarter of an inch. Also, Wind Chill
  temperatures will fall into the single digits later tonight
  across northeastern Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee. 

* WHERE...Lincoln, Moore, and Franklin counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. Travel will be hazardous. These hazardous travels
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commute. Wind
  chill temperatures will make for dangerous conditions if out 
  and about tonight. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages will be possible due to the 
  potential ice accumulations, which in some rural areas could 
  last for a few days. The combination of bitter cold 
  temperatures tonight into Tuesday will make conditions 
  particularly hazardous for those that do lose power. Residents 
  should be prepared and have an emergency supply kit ready in 
  event of a long duration power outage. Travel conditions will 
  be very slow to improve on Tuesday into Wednesday, even after 
  the precipitation ends.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.


&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/hun

413 
WWUS44 KHUN 160051
WSWHUN

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
651 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

ALZ001>007-016-160900-
/O.CAN.KHUN.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KHUN.WC.Y.0001.210216T0700Z-210216T1500Z/
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Cullman-
Including the cities of Florence, Muscle Shoals, Sheffield, 
Tuscumbia, Russellville, Red Bay, Moulton, Town Creek, Athens, 
Huntsville, Decatur, and Cullman
651 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY...
...ICE STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 8 
  below zero.

* WHERE...Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin, Lawrence, Limestone, 
  Madison, Morgan and Cullman counties in Alabama.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia if 
  precautions are not taken.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Although freezing rain and sleet has ended,
  roads will remain very slick and hazardous. In addition, the
  extremely cold wind chills will make venturing outside
  hazardous. Avoid venturing outside and avoid travel if at all 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

ALZ008>010-160200-
/O.CAN.KHUN.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-
Including the cities of Albertville, Boaz, Guntersville, Arab, 
Scottsboro, Fort Payne, and Rainsville
651 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Some brief freezing rain or drizzle is possible this evening as
rainfall diminishes, and cold air begins rushing into northeast
Alabama. However, the main risk for wintry precipitation has
passed.

Any lingering water on area roadways will freeze this evening, so
unnecessary travel should be avoided. In addition, wind chills
will fall into the single digits overnight. Use extreme caution 
if you must venture outdoors or travel.

$$

TNZ076-096-160900-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WC.Y.0001.210216T0700Z-210216T1500Z/
/O.CON.KHUN.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Moore-Lincoln-
Including the cities of Lynchburg and Fayetteville
651 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
TUESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy mixed 
  precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch 
  and ice accumulations of a light glaze. For the Wind Chill 
  Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low 
  as 5 below zero.

* WHERE...Moore and Lincoln counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 6 AM CST Tuesday. 
  For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 1 AM to 9 AM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Avoid travel if at
  all possible. Hazardous conditions will impact the morning 
  commute. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia if 
  precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

TNZ097-160900-
/O.CON.KHUN.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Franklin TN-
Including the cities of Winchester, Sewanee, Decherd, 
Estill Springs, and Cowan
651 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow 
  accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a 
  light glaze.

* WHERE...Franklin county in Tennessee.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Avoid travel if at
  all possible. Hazardous conditions will impact the morning 
  commute. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/hun

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1108 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

.UPDATE...
For 06Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 958 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

A weak mid-level wave preceding the primary shortwave trough of
interest (now located across the Upper Red River Valley of OK/TX)
will continue to advance northeastward across the region this
evening. Lift related to this disturbance has generated a broad swath
of light-occasionally moderate precipitation, primarily focused
across northwest/north central AL and in the form of freezing rain
and sleet. Given the progressive nature of the disturbance, it
appears reasonable to believe that the southwestern edge of the
broader axis of freezing rain/sleet will exit our southern Middle TN
zones btwn 6-9Z. In spite of the general light nature of the
precipitation and its progressive nature, impacts will still be felt
across the region, mainly in the form of slick roads due to a light
glaze of ice and some sleet. This is covered well by the current
Winter Storm Warning, and no changes are planned to the product at
this point. Otherwise, we made very minor adjustments to the wind and
low temperature grids, with an impressive temperature gradient
expected to remain in place across the region overnight (lows ranging
from the l-m 20s in northwest AL to the mid 30s in northeast AL).

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

This front will edge slightly more to the northwest during the
morning hours on Monday. However, locations near and west of this
same line from Winchester southwest to Vinemont, AL look to remain
near or below 33 degrees. Models continue to show heavy precipitation
developing near and behind the front early Monday morning as a low
forms further southeast it as it extends into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This low continues to be forecast to move northeast into
Georgia, but more quickly on Monday. Where the cold air remains
behind the front will be a key to where the heaviest icing and
snowfall totals end up. For now, expecting the axis of heaviest icing
to occur in southeastern Franklin county, AL northeast into
Limestone county. Expect .15 to .35 inches of ice accumulation
overall in that swath from Sunday night into Monday evening before
ending. There will be a sharp gradient in ice accumulation as you go
into northeastern Alabama. At this point due to the location of the
frontal boundary over northeastern Alabama, most areas there will see
closer to a few hundreths to around 1/10 of an inch of icing and a
few hundreths of an inch of snowfall/sleet accumulations.

However, these conditions will hold off in northeastern Alabama until
3 PM, so the start time for the winter storm warning for those
counties has been delayed until then and continues through 6 AM on
Tuesday. If this front shifts further southeast with future updates,
the axes of heavier ice/snow could shift further east.

Models do move this out of the area more quickly, but freezing rain
or snow could hang on until around midnight on Tuesday. Temperatures
drop quickly Monday night into the 20s to upper teens, before
bottoming out in the lower teens to lower 20s by daybreak on Tuesday.
Thus, very hazardous icing will continue overnight. Highs don't look
to climb above the upper 20s to around 32 degrees in most areas on
Tuesday, despite some clearing and sunshine. Therefore, these
hazardous icing conditions are not expected to improve on Tuesday.

Another cold night is expected on Tuesday night as more cloud cover
moves back into the region. Lows in the teens to lower 20s again
will not allow conditions to improve much.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

The next system to watch is another low pressure system coming out of
the western Gulf of Mexico, taking almost an identical track to the
system on Monday. The main difference with this system is that we are
forecast to get much warmer on Wednesday out ahead of the Low than we
were out ahead of the Low on Monday. There's still much uncertainty
going into the next system that will move through overnight Wednesday
night into Thursday in regards to precipitation type. Precipitation
type will greatly depend on what temperatures get up to on Wednesday,
and I'm concerned the models are too warm with the highs on
Wednesday. Went ahead and undercut the models by a couple degrees to
reflect the problem models have had with this cold air. With that, we
may see precipitation start in NW Alabama and southern Middle
Tennessee Wednesday evening and overnight Wednesday night as
freezing rain, sleet, or snow, with temperatures hugging 32-34
degrees. Amounts should generally be light, under an inch of snow or
just a glazing of ice. This should all change over to rain Thursday
morning as strong southerly flow out ahead of the approaching Low
from the Gulf helps to warm us up into the 40s.

Now as the cold front brings cold air back in on the back side of
this system, ensembles suggest that there is a decent chance we get a
changeover from rain to snow Thursday night into Friday morning.
Probably won't get more than a dusting, and with ground temperatures
above freezing, not expecting much to stick, apart from our higher
elevations on Sand Mountain and the Cumberland Plateau. Maybe Monte
Sano as well. These locations might see an inch.

Once this system moves off to the northeast, the cold air finally
gets pushed off to the north and east as well going into the weekend,
with high pressure building over the Southeast. We'll still have cold
air in place for Friday, with highs generally in the 30s, but as we
go into Saturday and Sunday, it looks like we should get dramatically
warmer over the weekend, with highs back in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

No changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning. Poor aviation
weather conditions will persist thru the upcoming TAF period,
featuring IFR-LIFR cigs/vsby and multiple chances for wintry
precipitation at the terminals. A weak disturbance aloft will
continue to bring an extended period of lgt FZRA to the MSL/HSV
terminals early in the period, and current AWWs will likely be
extended at their expirations. As the main storm system of interest
shifts northeastward into the Mid-South region tomorrow, a band of
heavier precipitation will begin to overspread the terminals from
W-to-E late tomorrow morning. This will predominately occur as a
mixture of SN/PL/FZRA, and some of the precip could be locally heavy
resulting in LIFR cigs/vsby. Conditions will improve from W-to-E
during the afternoon, as the axis of heavier precip shifts rapidly
east-northeastward. Sfc winds will oscillate between NNE-NNW, with
sustained speeds of 5-10 knots and occasional gusts up to 15 knots.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for
     ALZ008>010.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Tuesday for ALZ001>007-016.

TN...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Tuesday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...KTW
LONG TERM...McCoy
AVIATION...70/DD

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1008 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

ALZ001>007-016-TNZ076-096-097-151915-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
1008 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Alabama,
northwest Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
not anticipated at this time.

ALZ008>010-151915-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-
1008 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Alabama.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
not anticipated at this time.