Areal Flood Warning 22, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1154 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

.UPDATE...
For 18Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 947 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

MCS which has produced excessive rainfall in many locations
continues to shift into central AL, GA and eastern TN. Trailing
stratiform rain may linger into the afternoon, but have backed off of
late day and early evening PoPs. The cold front has pushed through
Winchester, Huntsville and Russellville, dropping temperatures into
the upper 40s to lower 50s rather quickly in our far northwest areas.
This trend will continue through the day. Wind gusts of 20-30kt will
persist and have increased those in the forecast as well.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

A cool and dry pattern will feature during the short-term forecast
period as surface high pressure becomes established across the
region. The airmass change will be rather drastic with PW values
going from near maximum observed values today to near minimum
observed values by Friday morning in the 0.1-0.2 inch range. The dry
airmass will radiate efficiently tonight and again Thursday night
into Friday morning. A widespread frost will be possible Thursday
morning with lows down in the low 30s with clear skies and light
winds. A frost advisory will be necessary for Thursday morning.
Temperatures will be cool during the day on Thursday with highs only
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

A colder night is forecast Thursday night into Friday morning with
high pressure centered just to the northwest of the area. Lows will
drop down into the mid to upper 20s. Even the warmest guidance
available suggest that temperatures will be below freezing Friday
morning. A freeze watch/warning will be needed for Friday morning in
later forecast issuances. Highs on Friday will continue to be below
climatological normals in the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

The surface high pressure will shift to the east Friday night with
one more night of strong radiational cooling. Temperatures Saturday
morning will start in the upper 20s to low 30s but a moderating
trends is forecast throughout the long-term forecast period.

Upper level heights will slowly increase throughout the long-term
period as the upper pattern remains somewhat stagnant. A ridge to the
west is forecast to slowly expand eastward with a trough off the
Eastern Seaboard and a trough across the West Coast. With this, dry
conditions will continue. Easter should be a rather pleasant day with
a cool start to the day with temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s
but quickly warming into the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows will climb
back into the mid 40s to low 50s early next week with highs back in
the mid to upper 70s. As the calendar turns to April these blasts of
cold air will be less severe and short-lived.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

Ceilings ~015agl (MVFR) should exit the KHSV by 20Z. Ceilings of
030-040agl (VFR) will persist at KHSV and KMSL through 02Z-04Z before
clearing. North to north winds of 13-15kt will gust around 25kt at
times through 02Z then diminish to around 10-12kt. Winds will
increase again by 14Z/01 with gusts again at 20-25kt.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...MA
LONG TERM...MA
AVIATION...17

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
321 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-312330-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
321 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Widespread heavy rainfall is expected today across the forecast area.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts will
lead to flash flooding and continued rises along area rivers and
streams. A flash flood watch continues until 7 PM this evening.

Additionally, strong to severe storms will be possible this morning
as a cold front approaches from the west. The main threat with these
storms will be damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Unseasonably cold morning temperatures are forecast Thursday through
Saturday, with frost possible each morning. The coldest morning will
be Friday when a hard freeze is expected with lows in the mid 20s in
southern Tennessee and upper 20s to around 30 degrees in north
Alabama.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
736 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

ALZ016-311315-
Cullman AL-
736 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CULLMAN COUNTY UNTIL 815 AM
CDT...

At 735 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms near Smith Dam, or 10 miles north of Sumiton, moving
east at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cullman, Hanceville, Good Hope, Holly Pond, Dodge City, Baldwin,
Garden City, Colony, Phelan and Walter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong gusty winds will be capable of knocking down small tree limbs
along with other small unsecured items. Seek safe shelter until this
storm has passed.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 8701 3390 8710 3392 8708 3399 8715
      3399 8711 3421 8711 3420 8655 3412 8660
      3412 8663 3409 8668 3409 8669 3405 8668
      3406 8671 3403 8670 3395 8679 3396 8682
      3391 8692 3387 8693 3386 8699
TIME...MOT...LOC 1235Z 272DEG 52KT 3391 8706

McCoy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
931 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE DECHERD           35.21N 86.08W
03/31/2021                   FRANKLIN           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER COVERING NORTH 2ND STREET AND MILL
            STREET. ROADS IMPASSIBLE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
933 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W WINCHESTER          35.18N 86.19W
03/31/2021                   FRANKLIN           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER COVERING HIGHWAY 50 AT OWLS HOLLOW
            ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
935 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 NE WOODVILLE          34.68N 86.19W
03/31/2021                   JACKSON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            APPROXIMATELY 6 INCHES OF WATER COVERING
            COUNTY ROAD 30 IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS,
            INCLUDING COUNTY ROAD 119.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
938 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W HOLLYWOOD           34.72N 86.03W
03/31/2021                   JACKSON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            APPROXIMATELY 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER
            COVERING COUNTY ROAD 105 NEAR COUNTY ROAD
            21.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 PM CDT WED MAR 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1232 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE STEVENSON         34.87N 85.82W
03/31/2021                   JACKSON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OLD MOUNT CARMEL ROAD HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO
            FLASH FLOODING.

&&