Special Weather Statement, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1203 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Storms ahead of the front moving a little faster than in previous
package by around a 1.5 hours. Will continue this trend and expect
IFR conditions to develop up north in the wake of the front and
extending down to near CXO. Storms wane after 12z and then CIGS
improve and storms start redeveloping during peak heating late
afternoon across the IAH- GLS area.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1011 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight and Tuesday]...
Update sent to raise rain chances along the front as it sags south
then begins to break up as it gets into the Houston area or
perhaps just before. Watching the area around Galveston Bay and
nearshore waters for the potential for rapid strengthening on
storms but not seeing it yet though instability there is high.

Some potential through 4 am for clustering of storms mainly north
and west then shifts down toward the Metro and coastal areas after
4 am.

After the heavy rains in the central/eastern portions of Harris
county (2-5" this afternoon/early evening) these areas don't need
any more rain. The good news is the models have continued to trend
lighter on rain amounts.
45

.LONG TERM...[Wednesday through Monday]

By Wednesday morning, a weak upper level ridge will begin to
redevelop over Texas but 500 heights only reach about 591 DM.
Moisture still looks to be trapped beneath the expanding ridge and
feel differential heating will be enough to trigger a few showers
and thunderstorms. The situation looks similar on Thursday with
moisture trapped beneath the ridge and daytime heating will again
foster a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Heat index values
will be on the rise and HI values should range between 100-105
degrees. MaxT values should remain on the warm side with MaxT
values in the lower to middle 90's.

The upper level ridge retreats west on Friday as an inverted upper
trough over the eastern gulf treks west. In addition, a short wave
trough over the northern plains will dig to the SE. Southeast
Texas will lie between the 3 systems but with a decrease in
moisture, not sure that rain chances look all that high on Friday.
Rain chances will increase again on Saturday and Sunday as
additional short wave energy embedded in the jetstream helps carve
out a deeper trough over the central US. 500 heights fall to
around 588 DM and PW values increase to around 2.10 inches. The
combination of lower heights, daytime heating and high moisture
content should set the stage for more showers and thunderstorms
next weekend. SE TX will lie between an upper level ridge over the
NW US and another ridge building over FL. SE TX will lie in the
weakness so diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible into early next week. MaxT values will trend slightly
cooler with the lower heights, additional cloud cover and rain
chances. 43

.MARINE...

The pressure gradient will relax tonight as a weak front moves
into SE TX. Will allow the SCA to expire over the Bays and
nearshore waters but will extend the SCA offshore for seas through
00z. A SCEC will be required over the coastal waters through early
Tuesday as seas remain slightly elevated. Wind and seas will be
higher in and near thunderstorms tonight into early Tuesday.  A
light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through
the end of the week with high pressure over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and lower pressures over the central plains.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  74  88  74  95  77 /  70  30  10  20   0
Houston (IAH)          76  91  76  94  78 /  70  40  20  30  10
Galveston (GLS)        80  90  82  92  84 /  70  50  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...Batiste

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