Special Weather Statement, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

.AVIATION...

SHRA and possible TSRA development can be expected tonight along and
ahead of a cold front that will be moving through the area. Ahead of
the front, look for lowering ceilings (IFR/LIFR) and lowering S to SE
winds. Behind the front, winds will shift to the N and become gusty
(15-25G30 knots) while ceilings gradually lift to MVFR and eventually
VFR. The elevated/gusty N winds can be expected to weaken inland locations
in the mid to late afternoon hours. VFR tomorrow night and on into Monday
morning with light N to NNE winds.  42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/

SHORT TERM [Through Sunday Night]...
Scattered showers are beginning to develop from the College
Station area into the Arklatex. Wouldn't doubt if we see a few
tstms develop across northern parts of the CWA in the next several
hours. This is all in advance of a cold front that'll be moving
into the area later tonight and off the coast Sunday morning.
We'll probably thin band of precip fill in along the boundary as
it approaches the I-10 corridor overnight. In the meantime, would
anticipate things cloud back up, and sea fog edge into the bays
and coastal areas.

After the front passes, north winds will increase to 15-25 mph
with some gusts to or above 30 mph looking like a good
possibility west of I-45 and along the coast. Precip should mostly
end with the front and as cooler air deepens, but some guidance
still hinting at the possibility of some sct areas of -ra ahead of
the H85 front into late morning & early afternoon across southern
parts.

Things clear out areawide Sun afternoon and night as high pressure
builds into the region. Pleasant wx prevails into Monday. 47

LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...
Cooler and drier conditions remain the story on Monday with the cold
frontal boundary situated well offshore and northwesterlies
providing a welcomed supply of drier air to SE TX. With area-wide
dew points dipping into the 40s by the afternoon, high temperatures
in the 70s, and overnight lows near 60, it should be a generally
pleasant day all-around.

As we continue to march into spring, this period of pleasant weather
will be fairly short-lived. The aforementioned frontal boundary will
migrate back onshore as a surface warm front overnight on Monday,
bringing with it increased onshore winds and thereby a quick return
to warmer and humid conditions. Some spotty showers/sprinkles may
accompany the arrival of the warm front, though any precipitation
that does occur should be neither prolonged nor intense. This
pattern shift will also prove favorable for the development of
patchy sea fog around the bays and barrier islands, though elevated
winds may inhibit the development of dense fog.

By Tuesday evening, a surface cold front associated with a deep low
over Central Ontario will extend into the Central Plains, pushing
southward during the overnight hours and eventually arriving in SE
TX by early Wednesday afternoon. The convective parameter space
ahead of the fropa appears somewhat favorable for thunderstorm
development, with MLCAPE values in the vicinity of 1000 J/kg and
EBWD of around 30-40kts. However, model soundings also indicate a
stout capping inversion around 900mb that should keep thunder out of
most of the northern half of the area. With the boundary expected to
reach areas the Houston metro by mid-afternoon, we continue to
expect most thunderstorm activity to be confined to the I-10
corridor and areas south.

Cooler and drier conditions will arrive once again by Wednesday
night upon the exit of the surface boundary, with lows dipping into
the 40s to around 50 on Thursday night. Surface high pressure will
exit eastward by late Friday, paving the way for increasing moisture
and warmer conditions by the middle of next weekend.

Cady

MARINE...
Sea fog will remain an issue until a cold front pushes off the
coast around sunrise Sunday. Winds will shift to the north and
increase to 20-25kt with some gusts above 30 kt a possibility.
SCA's will be required. High pressure moves to the east Sunday
night, and with troffiness near the Bay of Campeche, the pressure
gradient will remain fairly tight. Long fetch of ne/e winds will
drive water levels above normal into the early part of the week.
Another fairly strong front is forecast to push off the coast
during the day Wed, followed by another stretch of moderate to
strong e/se winds to end the work week. Elevated winds/seas and
possibly water levels can once again be anticipated. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      58  70  46  75  54 /  30  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              64  73  50  74  58 /  50  20   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)            67  72  58  71  64 /  60  60  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
918 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

TXZ163-280300-
Houston TX-
918 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY UNTIL
1000 PM CDT...

At 917 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles west of Grapeland, or 17 miles northwest of Crockett, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grapeland and Weches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3158 9526 3157 9521 3158 9517 3156 9514
      3134 9568 3136 9566 3138 9569 3142 9571
      3145 9571 3146 9572 3146 9575 3147 9574
      3147 9572 3149 9573 3149 9574 3151 9574
      3153 9565 3154 9565 3159 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 245DEG 35KT 3145 9571