Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
554 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

A line of strong storms accompanying a cold front will be pushing
through LBX and GLS within the next hour or so with conditions
improving at all the other terminals in wake of the front. VFR
conditions with breezy northwesterly winds will prevail overnight,
but MVFR CIGs of around 2000ft creep back in from the northwest
by sunrise that will continue through the early afternoon. The
clouds will scatter out through the afternoon with winds becoming
light by sunset.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 427 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Thursday Afternoon]...
Line of storms with primarily a wind threat from Groveton to
Coldspring to Conroe to Tomball to Eagle Lake then becomes more
scattered to the southwest should continue to march steadily
southeast and into the coastal waters early this evening.
This line should push through bringing a quick 0.5 to 1.5" of rain
in heavy downpours and dramatically lower visibility. After the
front with these storms pushes through skies should clear quickly
this evening. Wrap around cloud deck should push back south across
the northern areas around midnight and reach the Houston areas by
sunrise and linger into the afternoon. Temperatures tomorrow
should struggle to get into the mid to upper 50s.
45

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...

As the surface cold front and associated weak surface low departs
tomorrow, a period of cool, clear, and dry weather is anticipated
through the remainder of the week end into the early part of the
weekend as broad surface high pressure becomes the dominant synoptic
feature across the central CONUS. In general, afternoon highs will
remain in the mid to upper 50s through Saturday with overnight lows
in the upper 30s to low 40s. Light north to northeasterly winds
should remain near or below 10 miles per hour.

Though there continues to be a great deal of uncertainty surrounding
its development, the main story in the extended period continues to
be the formation of a coastal low on Sunday which could result in
the first instance of wintry precipitation in the greater Houston
area in approximately two years. As an upper trough dips into the
Four Corners region by Late Saturday, its associated jet streak will
provide sufficient upper-level divergence to support deepening low
pressure over the southwestern Gulf, with global guidance indicating
the formation of a closed low on Sunday. As has been the case in
recent months, the GFS deterministic solution remains more
progressive than the EC solution, though the 18Z run has started to
come into better agreement with the slower EC. Given the track
record of the EC in similar events recently, have generally sided
with its solution for this forecast package.

While the precipitation type forecast remains quite messy for Sunday
as the developing surface low pushes towards the central Gulf, there
have been consistent indications over the past 48 hours that support
the possibility of a mixed phase precipitation event during the
overnight hours across the northern/northwestern zones. With 850mb
temps remaining in the vicinity of -2 to -3 degC, total PWs rising
to the vicinity of 1 inch, and forecast soundings indicating a well-
saturated profile, have decided to include rain and snow showers in
the forecast between 00Z and 12Z Monday (Sunday night CST). While
there's still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this
situation, the possibility of wintry precipitation during this time
is on the increase.

As the coastal low tracks further eastward, clearer and drier
conditions are anticipated by Monday afternoon which should persist
into mid-week.

Cady

.MARINE...
SCA hoisted for the marine waters tonight and through 18z for the
moderate to strong offshore flow in the wake of the front. Tides
lower overnight and could need a short low water advisory late
Thursday morning into the early afternoon with the low tide cycle
but as of now tide levels shouldn't quite get there. Stay tuned.

Winds and seas relaxing Thursday as high pressure builds in then
Friday transitions as high pressure departs and winds start
veering to back onshore by late Friday/early Saturday...then
strengthens Saturday night. Seas build and will looking for SCA
conditions returning along with elevated tide levels Sunday and
Sunday night as the cold front sweeps in as coastal low tracks
northeast from South Texas coastal waters.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  42  54  38  53  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          45  56  40  55  37 /  70   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        49  56  45  54  44 /  90   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
441 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021

TXZ178-179-199-200-062330-
San Jacinto TX-Northern Liberty TX-Polk TX-Montgomery TX-
441 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO...NORTHERN LIBERTY AND SOUTHEASTERN POLK
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CST...

At 439 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Alabama-Coushatta Reservation to near
Splendora. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Livingston, Shepherd, Splendora, Daisetta, Hardin,
Goodrich, North Cleveland, Alabama-Coushatta Reservation, eastern
West Livingston, Leggett, Tarkington Prairie, Segno, Moss Hill,
Romayor and Rye.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
localized urban and small stream flooding. Do not drive your vehicle
through flooded roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for
southeastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3049 9473 3011 9460 3026 9522 3084 9487
      3078 9460 3049 9454
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 250DEG 25KT 3073 9473 3029 9516

Cady

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
543 PM CST WED JAN 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     HAIL             3 SSW IOWA COLONY       29.40N 95.43W
01/06/2021  E1.00 INCH       BRAZORIA           TX   PUBLIC

&&

BGK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
543 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021

TXZ200-213-214-236>238-300-313-336>338-436>438-070030-
Inland Brazoria TX-Coastal Matagorda TX-
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula TX-Northern Liberty TX-
Inland Matagorda TX-Chambers TX-Inland Galveston TX-
Matagorda Islands TX-Coastal Galveston TX-Brazoria Islands TX-
Southern Liberty TX-Coastal Harris TX-Inland Harris TX-
Coastal Brazoria TX-
543 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GALVESTON...BRAZORIA...
CHAMBERS...CENTRAL MATAGORDA...EASTERN LIBERTY AND SOUTHEASTERN
HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CST...

At 543 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Woodville to near Hardin to near Mont
Belvieu to Alvin to near Bay City. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Pasadena, southeastern Pearland, League City, Baytown,
Galveston Causeway, Galveston Island West End, Texas City,
Friendswood, La Porte, Deer Park, Lake Jackson, Alvin, Angleton,
Dickinson, Bay City, La Marque, Santa Fe, Freeport, Seabrook and
Clute.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for
southeastern Texas.

LAT...LON 2945 9435 2874 9530 2858 9565 2901 9610
      2947 9530 3038 9469 3011 9460 3011 9444
      2989 9444 2989 9436 2956 9435 2955 9439
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 310DEG 36KT 3073 9442 3012 9475 2988 9486 2944
9526 2902 9599

Cady

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
605 PM CST WED JAN 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E IOWA COLONY         29.44N 95.38W
01/06/2021                   BRAZORIA           TX   PUBLIC

            TREES ON ROAD.

&&

BGK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
611 PM CST WED JAN 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             2 ENE DICKINSON         29.46N 95.04W
01/06/2021  M1.00 INCH       GALVESTON          TX   PUBLIC

&&

BGK

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