Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

408 
WWUS54 KHGX 270049
SVSHGX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
749 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

TXC373-455-270100-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-210827T0100Z/
Trinity TX-Polk TX-
749 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN TRINITY AND CENTRAL POLK COUNTIES...

At 749 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Seven Oaks, or
11 miles northeast of Livingston, moving west at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Seven Oaks, northwestern West Livingston, Leggett and Moscow. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

If on or near the northern portion of Lake Livingston, get away from 
the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning 
can strike out to 15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can 
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move 
to safe shelter now!  Do not be caught on the water in a 
thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3093 9472 3084 9468 3071 9506 3094 9512
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 077DEG 25KT 3086 9484 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

530 
WWUS54 KHGX 270059
SVSHGX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
759 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

TXC373-455-270109-
/O.EXP.KHGX.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-210827T0100Z/
Trinity TX-Polk TX-
759 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN TRINITY AND CENTRAL
POLK COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However 
gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3093 9472 3084 9468 3071 9506 3094 9512
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 077DEG 25KT 3085 9489 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
656 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Scattered convection currently moving into the CWA from the E/NE
will be running into some rain-cooled air across portions of the
area this evening. And as the sun finally sets (in the next hour
or so), this should be end of the more organized development for
the next several hours tonight. However, the break will be brief
as we look for scattered showers (and maybe an isolated thunder-
storm) to get going early tomorrow morning as an inverted trough
moves ashore. Activity should strengthen and move inland through
the afternoon/early evening tomorrow. So, outside the convection,
conditions should be mostly VFR. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...

A surface trough has been the main focus for thunderstorms to
initiate through the morning and early afternoon hours. Now that
daytime heating has been added to the mix (convective temperatures
in the low 90s), thunderstorm coverage has become a bit more
widespread. The 12z run of the CAMs haven't exactly been in
agreement on the timing of today's initiation with some showing
later initiation like the HRW FV3. Speaking of the CAMs, there's
quite a bit of discrepancy on the coverage as well and none of them
have a particularly good handle on ongoing conditions. That being
said, there is good agreement in another round of rain showers
moving ashore overnight/early Friday as an inverted trough moves
ashore. This will be associated with a surge of increased moisture
as well with PW values increasing to 2.2"-2.4". Resultingly, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible in any of the stronger storms. PoPs
will remain higher along the coast and gradually increase further
inland towards the afternoon hours of Friday as daytime heating
factors in. Convective temperatures will be a tad lower tomorrow
(upper 80s). Since rainfall will be focused along the coast for much
of the day tomorrow, WPC has outlined our southeastern counties in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

Temperatures will become less of a hot topic going into the weekend
as increasing moisture and cloud cover will bring a slight cooldown.
High temperatures this afternoon were mainly in the mid 90s, but
these will be about 3-4 degrees cooler tomorrow with highs in the
low 90s. It's nice to write an AFD without mentioning the heat index
(minus this one time) after an extended period of near Heat Advisory
conditions.

Batiste

LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast over
the weekend as disturbances continue to move across the area. We
then begin to watch how close current Tropical Depression Nine
gets to our area as we head on into a late Sunday through Monday
time period. Based on the current National Hurricane Center forecast
that has a landfall in/around the eastern parts of Louisiana, the
center and most significant hazardous weather with this system is
expected to be well off to our east. We still anticipate gusty
north winds along with possible rounds of showers and thunderstorms
as outer rain bands attempt to make it into our area. The higher
rainfall totals (maybe averaging around 1 to 3 inches?) should end
up in/around our eastern counties with probably much lower numbers
(less than half an inch) ending up across our far west and northwest
counties. Look for gradually lowering and more diurnally driven rain
chances along with warming temperatures as we head on into Wednesday
and Thursday and start a new month. 42

MARINE...

Mainly southeast to east winds can be expected through Saturday night.
As Tropical Depression Nine strengthens and works it way toward the
central and northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night, expect
winds to strengthen and shift to the north and northwest (around 15
to 20 knots and gusty for much of the waters). Also looks for building
seas (around 7 to 10 feet anticipated at this time), and Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed. If the system edges further to the
west, winds and waves will be higher. If it edges further to the east,
winds and waves will be lower. Mariners should continue to closely
monitor the forecast of this system. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  91  75  91  75 /  20  50  10  50  10
Houston (IAH)              77  92  76  89  76 /  40  60  20  70  20
Galveston (GLS)            80  90  81  89  80 /  70  70  50  70  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
724 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

TXZ179-270100-
Polk TX-
724 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Polk County
through 800 PM CDT...

At 724 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chester, moving southwest at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Livingston, Seven Oaks, Alabama-Coushatta Reservation, Leggett and
Moscow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3101 9466 3079 9461 3059 9486 3089 9508
      3106 9457 3104 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 063DEG 26KT 3090 9465

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH