River Flood Warning 87, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

581 
WGUS84 KHGX 050456
FLSHGX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  San Bernard River near Boling affecting Wharton, Fort Bend and 
  Brazoria Counties.

TXC039-157-481-050600-
/O.CAN.KHGX.FL.W.0087.000000T0000Z-210805T0456Z/
/BOLT2.1.ER.210804T1930Z.210804T2345Z.210805T0400Z.NO/
1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...The Flood Warning for the San Bernard River near Boling has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the San Bernard River near Boling.
* At 11:46 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 17.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 4.7 feet Monday 
  evening.


&&

LAT...LON 2940 9592 2930 9584 2913 9566 2913 9577
      2930 9595 2940 9605

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Some isolated to
scattered showers will persist through sunset along with light to
moderate southeasterly flow. Light and variable flow picks up
overnight, but southeasterly flow returns tomorrow. Some isolated
showers and thunderstorms will pop up near LBX and GLS around
sunrise with coverage expanding inland through the day.
Precipitation will make its way to IAH/CXO by 21z, then
dissipating as the storms interact with some drier air.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 343 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

The stalled frontal boundary continues to push slowly further
offshore this afternoon, with showers and storms tapering off over
the past several hours as this has occurred. That being said, fairly
robust moisture remains situated roughly over the southern half of
the area (i.e., south of the I-10 corridor), with satellite-derived
PW values ranging from as low as 1.2 in near Crockett to
approximately 2.2 in around Matagorda Bay. As the boundary continues
its slow departure overnight, HiRes models indicate the development
of another round of showers/storms which may stretch into tomorrow
morning focused along the coast and near Matagorda Bay. While most
activity should remain situated offshore, HREF members are in fairly
good agreement in showing some activity making inland over the
southwestern zones. As a result, have maintained 20-30% PoPs in
these locations.

A synoptic pattern shift arrives on Thursday as a longwave trough
becomes the dominant feature over the central CONUS. With the base
of the trough axis pushing into central TX by tomorrow afternoon and
SE TX by the evening, another round of showers and storms is
possible during the day though development north of I-10 will be
stifled by relatively lower moisture availability (PWs look unlikely
to recover to much higher than 1.5-1.6in). PoPs will remain highest
over the southwestern zones, around 40-50%.

Overall, temperatures remain near to slightly below seasonal normals
through tomorrow with highs reaching the upper 80s along the coast
to lower 90s inland. Lows remain near normal, in the upper 70s to
near 80 close to the coast.

Cady

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday Night]...

Friday looks to be the last "wet" day of the week as a trough moves
off to the east. Not everyone will get rain, but scattered showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop across a large part of
the area. Heading into the weekend and into the first half of next
week, high pressure (both at the surface and aloft) is expected to
strengthen across the area. Lowering precipitable water values
(finally under two inches for a majority of the area) in combination
with a generally subsident airmass will probably allow for only
isolated to widely scattered mainly daytime shower and/or thunderstorm
development. The main weather story for a majority of the long term
period will likely be a return of the heat and humidity. Daytime high
temperatures for inland locations will get back into a mid to upper
90 range while it stays closer to around 90 at the coast. With the
dew points persisting in the 70s, heat index values will have some
potential to get back into that "close to" Heat Advisory range. 42

.MARINE...

A stalled front near the coast will continue to kick up showers and
thunderstorms through the rest of the work week. Seas are expected
to remain 1 to 2 feet outside of convection, but expect locally higher
heights and gusty conditions in and around these showers and storms.
Onshore winds will resume by the weekend and will slowly increase, possibly
reaching caution levels. This strengthening flow will also bring seas
back up to a 3 to 4 foot range. Decreasing rain chances can be expected
over the weekend and on into the start of next week.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  75  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  10  30   0
Houston (IAH)          75  93  76  93  76 /  10  20  10  50   0
Galveston (GLS)        81  90  81  90  82 /  20  30  20  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&