River Flood Warning 59, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

934 
WGUS84 KHGX 302051
FLSHGX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
351 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  San Bernard River near Sweeny affecting Brazoria County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  San Bernard River Near East Bernard affecting Wharton, Fort Bend, 
  Austin and Colorado Counties.

  Trinity River at Riverside affecting Walker, San Jacinto, Polk 
  and Trinity Counties.

  Trinity River at Liberty affecting Liberty County.

  Trinity River near Moss Bluff affecting Chambers and Liberty 
  Counties.

For the Trinity River...including Crockett, Riverside, Goodrich, 
Romayor, Liberty, Moss Bluff...Moderate flooding is forecast.
For the San Bernard River...including East Bernard, Sweeny, Boling...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to 
rising water and take all precautions to protect their property. Do 
not drive or walk into flooded areas the depth and water velocity 
could be too great for you to cross safely. Motorists should avoid 
any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and 
equipment should be removed from the flood plain immediately. Stay 
tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further 
updates.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this evening at 1100 PM CDT.

&&


TXC015-089-157-481-310900-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-210602T0200Z/
/EBBT2.1.ER.210530T1210Z.210530T2000Z.210601T1400Z.UU/
351 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Tuesday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the San Bernard River Near East Bernard.
* Until Tuesday evening.
* At 3:00 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 19.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 3:00 PM CDT Sunday was 19.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to around 19.3 feet late 
  tonight through early tomorrow morning then begin a gradual fall 
  to below flood stage around Tuesday evening and continue to fall 
  to around 14.2 feet Friday afternoon.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding begins in the 
  vicinity of the gage with minor roads along the river inundated.  
  Backwater flooding up Britt Branch and Bratcher Slough begins.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 18.9 
  feet on 05/29/2014.


&&

LAT...LON 2970 9625 2970 9605 2940 9592 2940 9605
      2952 9611

$$

TXC039-310400-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0058.000000T0000Z-210531T0353Z/
/OCNT2.1.ER.210529T1803Z.210530T0530Z.210530T2153Z.NO/
351 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the San Bernard River near Sweeny.
* Until this evening.
* At 2:45 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 7.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 2:45 PM CDT Sunday was 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage early 
  this evening and continue falling to around 5.1 feet around 
  Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 7.5 feet, Lazy G RV Boat Ramp takes on water.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 7.4 
  feet on 12/14/2018.


&&

LAT...LON 2913 9566 2902 9554 2888 9543 2888 9553
      2902 9565 2913 9577

$$

TXC373-407-455-471-310900-
/O.CON.KHGX.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/RVRT2.1.ER.210519T0850Z.210527T2200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
351 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River at Riverside.
* Until further notice.
* At 3:30 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 135.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 133.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 3:30 PM CDT Sunday was 135.4 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 134.3 feet Friday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 135.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding continues as 
  significant backwater up Thomas Lake floods the lowest areas in 
  the Green Rich Shore Subdivision in Walker County with the boat 
  ramp completely inundated. The lowest lying areas in the Deep 
  River Plantation Subdivision and FM 980 northwest of Riverside are 
  threatened.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 135.1 
  feet on 10/30/2009.

&&


             Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location     Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed          

Trinity River
Riverside    133.5 135.1 Sun 3 pm CDT 134.9 134.7 134.5        





&&

LAT...LON 3097 9584 3096 9562 3093 9528 3082 9528
      3087 9562 3088 9584

$$

TXC291-310900-
/O.CON.KHGX.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LBYT2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.210530T1315Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
351 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River at Liberty.
* Until further notice.
* At 3:15 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 28.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 3:15 PM CDT Sunday was 29.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 26.8 feet Friday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 29.0 feet, Major lowland flooding begins as homes in 
  several subdivisions above Liberty begin flooding. Extensive 
  flooding over much of Liberty County can be expected with each 
  incremental rise in the river.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 28.9 
  feet on 06/19/1973.

&&


             Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location     Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed          

Trinity River
Liberty      26.0  28.9  Sun 3 pm CDT 28.9  28.9  28.9         





&&

LAT...LON 3027 9475 2996 9470 2996 9487 3027 9489

$$

TXC071-291-310900-
/O.CON.KHGX.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MBFT2.1.ER.210515T1400Z.210530T2000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
351 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River near Moss Bluff.
* Until further notice.
* At 3:30 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 3:30 PM CDT Sunday was 14.3 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood 
  stage at 14.3 feet through Friday morning.
* Impact...At 15.2 feet, Moderate lowland flooding begins in the 
  vicinity of the gage.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.3 
  feet on 02/10/1992.

&&


             Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location     Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed          

Trinity River
Moss Bluff   12.2  14.3  Sun 3 pm CDT 14.3  14.3  14.3         





&&

LAT...LON 2996 9470 2979 9466 2979 9479 2996 9487

$$

523 
WGUS84 KHGX 310123
FLSHGX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
823 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  San Bernard River Near East Bernard affecting Wharton, Fort Bend, 
  Austin and Colorado Counties.

For the San Bernard River...including East Bernard, Sweeny, Boling...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to 
rising water and take all precautions to protect their property. Do 
not drive or walk into flooded areas the depth and water velocity 
could be too great for you to cross safely. Motorists should avoid 
any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and 
equipment should be removed from the flood plain immediately. Stay 
tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further 
updates.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Monday morning at 830 AM CDT.

&&


TXC015-089-157-481-311330-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-210601T0600Z/
/EBBT2.1.ER.210530T1210Z.210530T2200Z.210531T1800Z.UU/
823 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Tuesday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the San Bernard River Near East Bernard.
* Until late Monday night.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 19.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:00 PM CDT Sunday was 19.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage early 
  tomorrow afternoon and continue falling to 14.6 feet Friday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding begins in the 
  vicinity of the gage with minor roads along the river inundated.  
  Backwater flooding up Britt Branch and Bratcher Slough begins.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 18.9 
  feet on 05/29/2014.


&&

LAT...LON 2970 9625 2970 9605 2940 9592 2940 9605
      2952 9611

$$

398 
WGUS84 KHGX 311413
FLSHGX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
913 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  San Bernard River Near East Bernard affecting Wharton, Fort Bend, 
  Austin and Colorado Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Trinity River at Riverside affecting Walker, San Jacinto, Polk 
  and Trinity Counties.

  Trinity River near Moss Bluff affecting Chambers and Liberty 
  Counties.

For the Trinity River...including Crockett, Riverside, Goodrich, 
Romayor, Liberty, Moss Bluff...Major flooding is forecast.
For the San Bernard River...including East Bernard, Sweeny, Boling...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to 
rising water and take all precautions to protect their property. Do 
not drive or walk into flooded areas the depth and water velocity 
could be too great for you to cross safely. Motorists should avoid 
any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and 
equipment should be removed from the flood plain immediately. Stay 
tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further 
updates.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this evening at 915 PM CDT.

&&


TXC015-089-157-481-010215-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-210601T1100Z/
/EBBT2.1.ER.210530T1210Z.210530T2200Z.210531T2300Z.UU/
913 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the San Bernard River Near East Bernard.
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At 8:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 18.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:00 AM CDT Monday was 19.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late 
  this afternoon or early this evening and continue falling to 13.8 
  feet by Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding begins in the 
  vicinity of the gage with minor roads along the river inundated.  
  Backwater flooding up Britt Branch and Bratcher Slough begins.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 18.0 
  feet on 07/07/2007.


&&

LAT...LON 2970 9625 2970 9605 2940 9592 2940 9605
      2952 9611

$$

TXC373-407-455-471-010215-
/O.CON.KHGX.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/RVRT2.1.ER.210519T0850Z.210527T2200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River at Riverside.
* Until further notice.
* At 8:30 AM CDT Monday the stage was 134.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 133.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:30 AM CDT Monday was 135.2 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 134.1 feet by late 
  Friday morning or early Saturday evening and remain around that 
  level through Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 135.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding continues as 
  significant backwater up Thomas Lake floods the lowest areas in 
  the Green Rich Shore Subdivision in Walker County with the boat 
  ramp completely inundated. The lowest lying areas in the Deep 
  River Plantation Subdivision and FM 980 northwest of Riverside are 
  threatened.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 134.8 
  feet on 11/25/2004.

&&


             Fld   Observed           Forecasts (7 am CDT)     
Location     Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Tue   Wed   Thu          

Trinity River
Riverside    133.5 134.8 Mon 8 am CDT 134.6 134.3 134.2        





&&

LAT...LON 3097 9584 3096 9562 3093 9528 3082 9528
      3087 9562 3088 9584

$$

TXC071-291-010215-
/O.CON.KHGX.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MBFT2.1.ER.210515T1400Z.210531T1145Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River near Moss Bluff.
* Until further notice.
* At 8:30 AM CDT Monday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:30 AM CDT Monday was 14.3 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood 
  stage at 14.2 feet to 14.3 feet through Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 15.2 feet, Moderate lowland flooding begins in the 
  vicinity of the gage.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.3 
  feet on 02/10/1992.

&&


             Fld   Observed           Forecasts (7 am CDT)     
Location     Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Tue   Wed   Thu          

Trinity River
Moss Bluff   12.2  14.3  Mon 8 am CDT 14.3  14.3  14.3         





&&

LAT...LON 2996 9470 2979 9466 2979 9479 2996 9487

$$

341 
WGUS84 KHGX 312022
FLSHGX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
322 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Trinity River at Liberty affecting Liberty County.

  San Bernard River Near East Bernard affecting Wharton, Fort Bend, 
  Austin and Colorado Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Trinity River at Riverside affecting Walker, San Jacinto, Polk 
  and Trinity Counties.

  Trinity River near Moss Bluff affecting Chambers and Liberty 
  Counties.

For the Trinity River...including Crockett, Riverside, Goodrich, 
Romayor, Liberty, Moss Bluff...Major flooding is forecast.
For the San Bernard River...including East Bernard, Sweeny, Boling...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to 
rising water and take all precautions to protect their property. Do 
not drive or walk into flooded areas the depth and water velocity 
could be too great for you to cross safely. Motorists should avoid 
any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and 
equipment should be removed from the flood plain immediately. Stay 
tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further 
updates.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 315 AM CDT.

&&


TXC015-089-157-481-010830-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-210601T1500Z/
/EBBT2.1.ER.210530T1210Z.210530T2200Z.210601T0300Z.UU/
322 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the San Bernard River Near East Bernard.
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At 3:00 PM CDT Monday the stage was 17.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 3:00 PM CDT Monday was 19.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this 
  evening or overnight and continue falling to 13.6 feet by late 
  Saturday morning or early Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding begins in the 
  vicinity of the gage with minor roads along the river inundated.  
  Backwater flooding up Britt Branch and Bratcher Slough begins.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.4 
  feet on 05/20/2015.


&&

LAT...LON 2970 9625 2970 9605 2940 9592 2940 9605
      2952 9611

$$

TXC373-407-455-471-010830-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-210604T1200Z/
/RVRT2.1.ER.210519T0850Z.210527T2200Z.210604T0000Z.NO/
322 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Friday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River at Riverside.
* Until Friday morning.
* At 2:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 134.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 133.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 2:30 PM CDT Monday was 135.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to slowly fall to below flood 
  stage Thursday evening and continue falling to 132.4 feet early 
  Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 135.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding continues as 
  significant backwater up Thomas Lake floods the lowest areas in 
  the Green Rich Shore Subdivision in Walker County with the boat 
  ramp completely inundated. The lowest lying areas in the Deep 
  River Plantation Subdivision and FM 980 northwest of Riverside are 
  threatened.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 134.8 
  feet on 11/25/2004.

&&


             Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location     Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Tue   Wed   Thu          

Trinity River
Riverside    133.5 134.8 Mon 2 pm CDT 134.4 134.1 133.7        





&&

LAT...LON 3097 9584 3096 9562 3093 9528 3082 9528
      3087 9562 3088 9584

$$

TXC291-010830-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-210606T0300Z/
/LBYT2.3.ER.000000T0000Z.210531T0730Z.210605T1500Z.NO/
322 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Saturday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River at Liberty.
* Until Saturday evening.
* At 2:15 PM CDT Monday the stage was 28.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 2:15 PM CDT Monday was 29.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 29.0 feet 
  late this afternoon or early this evening. It will then fall below 
  flood stage late Saturday morning or early Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 29.0 feet, Major lowland flooding begins as homes in 
  several subdivisions above Liberty begin flooding. Extensive 
  flooding over much of Liberty County can be expected with each 
  incremental rise in the river.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 29.0 
  feet on 03/15/2016.

&&


             Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location     Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Tue   Wed   Thu          

Trinity River
Liberty      26.0  28.9  Mon 2 pm CDT 28.9  28.7  27.9         





&&

LAT...LON 3027 9475 2996 9470 2996 9487 3027 9489

$$

TXC071-291-010830-
/O.CON.KHGX.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MBFT2.1.ER.210515T1400Z.210531T1145Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
322 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River near Moss Bluff.
* Until further notice.
* At 2:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 2:30 PM CDT Monday was 14.3 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood 
  stage at 14.3 feet through Wednesday afternoon then slowly fall to 
  around 14.1 feet late Friday night or early Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 15.2 feet, Moderate lowland flooding begins in the 
  vicinity of the gage.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.3 
  feet on 02/10/1992.

&&


             Fld   Observed           Forecasts (1 pm CDT)     
Location     Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Tue   Wed   Thu          

Trinity River
Moss Bluff   12.2  14.3  Mon 2 pm CDT 14.3  14.3  14.3         





&&

LAT...LON 2996 9470 2979 9466 2979 9479 2996 9487

$$

125 
WGUS84 KHGX 010213
FLSHGX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
913 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  San Bernard River Near East Bernard affecting Wharton, Fort Bend, 
  Austin and Colorado Counties.

TXC015-089-157-481-010315-
/O.CAN.KHGX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-210601T0213Z/
/EBBT2.1.ER.210530T1210Z.210530T2200Z.210601T0300Z.UU/
913 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...The Flood Warning for the San Bernard River Near East Bernard has 
been cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the San Bernard River Near East Bernard.
* At 9:00 PM CDT Monday the stage was 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 13.5 feet Saturday 
  evening.


&&

LAT...LON 2970 9625 2970 9605 2940 9592 2940 9605
      2952 9611

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Latest radar imagery shows the development of a few slow-moving
showers, most noticeably a cluster in the vicinity of IAH. Have
opted for VCSH language at potentially impacted sites
(IAH/LBX/GLS) for the time being which will need to be watched
closely over the next couple of hours. As for cigs, we're
currently seeing a mix of VFR/MVFR decks across the region, with
MVFR cigs expected to prevail through mid-morning. Thereafter,
cigs should lift to VFR levels for the remainder of the TAF
period. Winds will remain out of the east today, increasing to
around 10 knots during the afternoon and becoming light and
variable overnight tonight.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Monday Night]...

A quieter period of weather is on the cards to close out Memorial
Day weekend. Upper ridging continues to build over the Southern
Plains, though deepening pressures over western/central TX as a
longwave trough digs into Baja California will work to increase
onshore flow today. Given the favorable moisture transport and
availability (total PWs of 1.75-2.0in) and lengthy southeasterly
fetch, could see some streamer shower activity this morning and
afternoon. HREF members remain in fairly good agreement in
depicting a broken line of showers/storms offshore around sunrise,
with activity pushing westward as we head into the afternoon. That
being said, forecast soundings remain dry aloft given
northwesterly flow at 500mb which should once again work against
any widespread/intense precipitation. Furthermore, favorable jet
dynamics remain well to our northwest. As a result, have
maintained slight chance PoPs for today with the bulk of the
activity over the southwestern zones.

Otherwise, should be a reasonably pleasant day today with highs in
the lower to mid 80s, overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s,
and partly cloudy skies. Slightly warmer and more humid conditions
arrive on Monday as the elevated onshore flow increases both
moisture transport and WAA with highs approaching the mid to
upper 80s. While upper ridging will momentarily remain dominant
and precipitation is not expected, this pattern will set the stage
for a fairly wet period beginning on Tuesday as the
aforementioned upper trough axis advances eastward (more on that
below).

Cady

LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...

Rain chances gradually increase throughout the day on Tuesday from
northwest to southeast as thunderstorms develop in central TX and
drift into the region. Sufficient low-level transport of dewpoints
in the low 70s will aid in the destabilization of the atmosphere on
Tuesday afternoon, so parcels may be able to tap into the abundant
CAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg especially for our northern locations
including the Brazos Valley. This is the reasoning behind SPC's
marginal risk of severe weather for Tuesday with an isolated threat
of large hail and strong winds. Coverage of any strong to severe
thunderstorms will be rather sparse, so it is tough to nail down a
particular location this far out. That being said, the "greatest"
probability for experiencing these storms will be generally north of
Montgomery County.

The shower/thunderstorm chances do not go away for quite awhile...so
what's the deal? Well, this particular wet pattern is brought to you
by an upper-level trough in the southwestern CONUS. In the mid-
levels, a cutoff low emerges within this trough which will allow for
multiple rounds of shortwaves to be sent into our region. While this
is occuring in the mid and upper-levels, persistent onshore flow at
the surface through southerly/southeasterly winds will keep PW
values steadily above 1.5" and instability in the 1500-2500 J/kg
range. PVA from these rounds of shortwaves will have plenty of
moisture and instability to work with. Quick Meteorology 101 lesson!
Thunderstorms require moisture, instability, and lift. These three
ingredients will be present throughout the forecast period. As a
result, PoPs will persist throughout the entire week. PW values
increase to near 2" at different points in the week depending on
which model you look at, so some days (especially towards the end of
the week) could feature locally heavy rainfall. Jet dynamics become
increasingly favorable for upper-level divergence going into the
weekend, so unfortunately the daily rain chances are likely to
continue.

The first day of June is this upcoming Tuesday, so let's talk
temperatures! Our normal high temperature in early June is 90
degrees for the Houston metro area. Now don't panic...we're not
expecting any 90s, at least not yet. High temperatures next week
will start out in the mid 80s and gradually increase to the upper
80s by the end of the week. Even though afternoon temperatures won't
reach the 90s, it will feel like the 90s due to the humidity. Some
areas will be lucky and receive afternoon rainfall that provides a
temporary relief from the heat. With heat index values expected to
reach the low-to-mid 90s next week, this is a good time to freshen
up on heat safety tips.

Batiste

MARINE...

Deepening pressures over western/central TX and the eastward
propagation of high pressure over the Central CONUS will allow for
the development of moderate onshore winds today. Wind speeds
should reach caution criteria over the nearshore and offshore
waters, though seas should remain relatively low. Winds will
decrease by mid-week as the surface gradient weakens, though
precipitation chances will be on the increase by mid-week as a
series of upper-level disturbances traverse the area.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      83  68  86  70  86 /  10  10  10  10  50
Houston (IAH)              83  69  85  71  85 /  10  10  10   0  40
Galveston (GLS)            82  75  83  77  83 /  20   0  10   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&