Flash Flood Watch 7, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

212 
WGUS64 KHGX 070327
FFAHGX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1027 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

TXZ235-236-335-336-436-071900-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.A.0007.210707T0500Z-210709T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-
Matagorda Islands-
Including the cities of Edna, Bay City, Ganado, and Palacios
1027 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Texas and southeast Texas, including the 
  following areas, in south central Texas, Coastal Jackson and 
  Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas, Coastal Matagorda, Inland 
  Matagorda and Matagorda Islands.

* Through Friday morning

* A coastal low will develop over South Texas early Wednesday 
  morning and track slowly northward throughout the rest of the 
  week. Several rounds of heavy rainfall are expected around 
  Matagorda Bay through Thursday night and into Friday morning. This 
  region has already received 4-6 inches of rain Monday night 
  through Tuesday evening, so soils are adequately saturated. During 
  the watch period for these counties, additional amounts of 5 to 8 
  inches are expected with locally higher amounts. Isolated spots 
  along the Tres Palacios in western Matagorda County are already 
  above flood stage with more rainfall expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

525 
WGUS64 KHGX 070745
FFAHGX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
245 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.A slow moving upper level low pressure system will continue to draw 
in abundant moisture to the region fueling the development of slow 
moving thunderstorms capable of heavy rain today through Thursday.  
These storms will easily be capable of rainfall rates of 2" to 3" 
inches per hour. .

TXZ237-238-337-338-437>439-072045-
/O.EXA.KHGX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210709T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-
Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island-Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Galveston, Lake Jackson, Alvin, Surfside 
Beach, Friendswood, Pearland, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, 
Angleton, League City, Freeport, and La Marque
245 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in League City has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of southeast Texas, 
  including the following areas, Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria 
  Islands, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston, Galveston Island, 
  Inland Brazoria and Inland Galveston.

* Through Friday morning

* Heavy rains will be possible today as bands and clusters of 
  showers and thunderstorms spread into the coastal counties. 
  Previous heavy rains yesterday have further moistened the soils 
  and with additional heavy rainfall possible today the threat for 
  flash flooding will be increasing. These storms will easily be 
  capable of rainfall rates of 2" to 3" inches per hour. Isolated 
  rainfall totals in the watch area could exceed 6 inches. Some 
  river and creeks have already risen and the additional runoff will 
  likely lead to additional flooding near these creeks, rivers and 
  bayous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

TXZ235-236-335-336-436-072045-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210709T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-
Matagorda Islands-
Including the cities of Edna, Bay City, Ganado, and Palacios
245 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Texas and southeast Texas, including the 
  following areas, in south central Texas, Coastal Jackson and 
  Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas, Coastal Matagorda, Inland 
  Matagorda and Matagorda Islands.

* Through Friday morning

* Heavy rains will be possible today as bands and clusters of 
  showers and thunderstorms spread into the coastal counties. 
  Previous heavy rains yesterday have further moistened the soils 
  and with additional heavy rainfall possible today the threat for 
  flash flooding will be increasing. These storms will easily be 
  capable of rainfall rates of 2" to 3" inches per hour. Isolated 
  rainfall totals in the watch area could exceed 6 inches. Some 
  river and creeks have already risen and the additional runoff will 
  likely lead to additional flooding near these creeks, rivers and 
  bayous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Kp

932 
WGUS64 KHGX 071830
FFAHGX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
130 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

TXZ235>238-335>338-436>439-080230-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210709T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-
Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-
Matagorda Islands-Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island-Bolivar
Peninsula-
Including the cities of Galveston, Lake Jackson, Alvin, Surfside 
Beach, Pearland, Edna, Ganado, Friendswood, Clute, Texas City, 
Dickinson, Angleton, Bay City, Palacios, League City, Freeport, and 
La Marque
130 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Texas and southeast Texas, including the 
  following areas, in south central Texas, Coastal Jackson and 
  Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas, Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria 
  Islands, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston, Coastal Matagorda, 
  Galveston Island, Inland Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Inland 
  Matagorda and Matagorda Islands.

* Through Friday morning

* A slow moving upper level low pressure system will continue to draw
  in abundant moisture in to the region fueling the development of 
  slow moving thunderstorms capable of heavy rain through Thursday 
  night. These storms will easily be capable of rainfall rates of 2" 
  to 3" inches per hour.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

860 
WGUS64 KHGX 080836
FFAHGX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
336 AM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.An upper level low pressure system over South Texas will continue 
to draw in abundant moisture to the region fueling the development 
of slow moving showers and a few thunderstorms capable of heavy rain 
today through Friday.  These storms will easily be capable of 
rainfall rates of 2" to 3" inches per hour. .

TXZ235>238-335>338-436>439-081645-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210710T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-
Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-
Matagorda Islands-Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island-Bolivar
Peninsula-
Including the cities of Galveston, Lake Jackson, Alvin, Surfside 
Beach, Pearland, Edna, Ganado, Friendswood, Clute, Texas City, 
Dickinson, Angleton, Bay City, Palacios, League City, Freeport, and 
La Marque
336 AM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of south central Texas and southeast Texas, including the 
  following areas, in south central Texas, Coastal Jackson and 
  Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas, Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria 
  Islands, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston, Coastal Matagorda, 
  Galveston Island, Inland Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Inland 
  Matagorda and Matagorda Islands.

* Through Friday evening

* An upper level low pressure system over South Texas will pull 
  extremely moist air into the region fueling the development of 
  slow moving multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable 
  of periods of heavy rain through Friday afternoon. These storms 
  will easily be capable of rainfall rates of 2" to 3" inches per 
  hour. Heavy rainfall yesterday in the watch area has increased the 
  threat of flooding both roadways and drainages such as creeks, 
  streams, bayous, and rivers. Many of the rivers and streams are 
  already swollen and this will further aggravate these conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Kp

776 
WGUS64 KHGX 081653
FFAHGX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1153 AM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

TXZ226-227-090100-
/O.EXA.KHGX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210710T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wharton-Fort Bend-
Including the cities of Rosenberg, First Colony, Wharton, El Campo, 
Mission Bend, Missouri City, Pecan Grove, and Sugar Land
1153 AM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in League City has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of southeast Texas, 
  including the following areas, Fort Bend and Wharton.

* Through Friday evening

* An upper level low pressure system over South Texas will continue 
  to draw in abundant moisture to the region fueling the development 
  of slow moving showers and a few thunderstorms capable of heavy rain 
  today through Friday. The period of heaviest rain is expected late 
  tonight into early Friday. These storms will easily be capable of 
  rainfall rates of 2" to 3" inches per hour.

* An upper level low pressure system over South Texas will pull   
  extremely moist air into the region fueling the development of 
  slow moving multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable 
  of periods of heavy rain through Friday afternoon. These storms 
  will easily be capable of rainfall rates of 2" to 3" inches per 
  hour. Additional rainfall in these areas will average between 3 
  and 6 inches by Friday evening with isolated amounts near 10 
  inches possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

TXZ235>238-335>338-436>439-090100-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210710T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-
Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-
Matagorda Islands-Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island-Bolivar
Peninsula-
Including the cities of Galveston, Lake Jackson, Alvin, Surfside 
Beach, Pearland, Edna, Ganado, Friendswood, Clute, Texas City, 
Dickinson, Angleton, Bay City, Palacios, League City, Freeport, and 
La Marque
1153 AM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Texas and southeast Texas, including the 
  following areas, in south central Texas, Coastal Jackson and 
  Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas, Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria 
  Islands, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston, Coastal Matagorda, 
  Galveston Island, Inland Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Inland 
  Matagorda and Matagorda Islands.

* Through Friday evening

* An upper level low pressure system over South Texas will continue 
  to draw in abundant moisture to the region fueling the development 
  of slow moving showers and a few thunderstorms capable of heavy rain 
  today through Friday. The period of heaviest rain is expected from 
  mid evening into early Friday.These storms will easily be capable 
  of rainfall rates of 2" to 3" inches per hour.

* An upper level low pressure system over South Texas will pull  
  extremely moist air into the region fueling the development of 
  slow moving multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable 
  of periods of heavy rain through Friday afternoon. These storms 
  will easily be capable of rainfall rates of 2" to 3" inches per 
  hour. An additional 4 to 8 inches of rain will be possible by 
  Friday evening with isolated amounts between 10 and 12 inches. 
  Heavy rainfall yesterday in the watch area has increased the 
  threat of flooding both roadways and drainages such as creeks, 
  streams, bayous, and rivers. Many of the rivers and streams are 
  already swollen and this will further aggravate these conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

102 
WGUS64 KHGX 090239
FFAHGX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
939 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.Heavy rain is expected to redevelop late tonight. The latest model 
guidance suggests some of this rain could spread farther north into 
portions of Colorado, Austin, and Waller counties, so they are added 
to the watch.

TXZ210>212-091300-
/O.EXA.KHGX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210710T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Colorado-Austin-Waller-
Including the cities of Columbus, Prairie View, Brookshire, Sealy, 
Hempstead, Eagle Lake, Waller, Bellville, and Weimar
939 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in League City has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of southeast Texas, 
  including the following areas, Austin, Colorado and Waller.

* Through Friday evening

* Rain across Southeast Texas has lightened some this evening, 
  providing a brief respite to the water-logged area, particularly 
  around Matagorda Bay. However, there is high confidence that 
  another round of heavy rains will redevelop late tonight. Hi-res 
  model guidance suggest some potential that some of this heavy rain 
  will occur farther inland, and increases the threat of flooding 
  rains into southern Colorado, Austin, and Waller counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

TXZ226-227-235>238-335>338-436>439-091300-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210710T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-
Inland Galveston-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-
Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands-Brazoria Islands-Galveston
Island-Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Pearland, Texas City, Dickinson, Bay City, 
Wharton, Missouri City, Pecan Grove, Palacios, League City, La 
Marque, Lake Jackson, Surfside Beach, Freeport, First Colony, Clute, 
Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Galveston, Alvin, Rosenberg, Friendswood, 
Edna, Ganado, El Campo, and Angleton
939 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Texas and southeast Texas, including the 
  following areas, in south central Texas, Coastal Jackson and 
  Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas, Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria 
  Islands, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston, Coastal Matagorda, 
  Fort Bend, Galveston Island, Inland Brazoria, Inland Galveston, 
  Inland Matagorda, Matagorda Islands and Wharton.

* Through Friday evening

* Rain across Southeast Texas has lightened some this evening, 
  providing a brief respite to the water-logged area, particularly 
  around Matagorda Bay. However, there is high confidence that 
  another round of heavy rains will redevelop late tonight. The main 
  threat area remains in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay, but 
  localized potential for flooding rains will exist anywhere west 
  and southwest of the Houston metro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

019 
WGUS64 KHGX 091023
FFAHGX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
523 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

TXZ210>212-226-227-235>238-335>338-436>439-100000-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210710T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Colorado-Austin-Waller-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-Inland
Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Coastal Jackson-Coastal
Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands-
Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island-Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Brookshire, Pearland, Texas City, Dickinson, 
Bellville, Bay City, Columbus, Hempstead, Wharton, Missouri City, 
Pecan Grove, Palacios, League City, La Marque, Lake Jackson, 
Surfside Beach, Freeport, First Colony, Clute, Eagle Lake, Alvin, 
Waller, Sugar Land, Galveston, Prairie View, Sealy, Rosenberg, 
Friendswood, Edna, Ganado, El Campo, Mission Bend, Angleton, and 
Weimar
523 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Texas and southeast Texas, including the 
  following areas, in south central Texas, Coastal Jackson and 
  Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas, Austin, Bolivar Peninsula, 
  Brazoria Islands, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston, Coastal 
  Matagorda, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston Island, Inland Brazoria, 
  Inland Galveston, Inland Matagorda, Matagorda Islands, Waller and 
  Wharton.

* Through this evening

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms have returned this morning 
  with again the heaviest rainfall occurring across Jackson, 
  Matagorda, Brazoria, and Wharton Counties. Flash flood guidance is 
  very low in these areas as days of heavy rainfall has left the 
  ground saturated and rivers swollen. An additional three to six 
  inches of rain is expected in these areas through the early 
  afternoon today with locally higher amounts possible. Locally 
  heavy rainfall is also possible along the coast and further north 
  than previous days, so the watch continues up through Waller and 
  Austin counties. Precipitation coverage will decrease in the 
  evening with drier conditions expected through the weekend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

617 
WGUS64 KHGX 092010
FFAHGX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
310 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

TXZ210>212-226-227-235>238-335>338-436>439-092115-
/O.CAN.KHGX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210710T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Colorado-Austin-Waller-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-Inland
Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Coastal Jackson-Coastal
Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands-
Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island-Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Brookshire, Pearland, Texas City, Dickinson, 
Bellville, Bay City, Columbus, Hempstead, Wharton, Missouri City, 
Pecan Grove, Palacios, League City, La Marque, Lake Jackson, 
Surfside Beach, Freeport, First Colony, Clute, Eagle Lake, Alvin, 
Waller, Sugar Land, Galveston, Prairie View, Sealy, Rosenberg, 
Friendswood, Edna, Ganado, El Campo, Mission Bend, Angleton, and 
Weimar
310 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Texas and 
southeast Texas, including the following areas, in south central 
Texas, Coastal Jackson and Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas, 
Austin, Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria Islands, Coastal Brazoria, 
Coastal Galveston, Coastal Matagorda, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston 
Island, Inland Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Inland Matagorda, 
Matagorda Islands, Waller and Wharton has been cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. Although organized heavy rainfall is 
no longer expected, scattered showers will likely persist into the 
evening. Some roads may remain water covered and a few roads in 
Jackson county may remain impassable this evening. Flash flooding is 
no longer expected to pose a threat. Use caution if driving near the 
San Bernard River, the Lavaca River, the Navidad River and the Tres 
palacios River. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1255 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Shower/storm coverage is much more sparse this afternoon with the
moisture axis now offshore. As we head into the mid-afternoon
hours and hit the convective temperature, isolated to scattered
showers/storms will redevelop mainly south and west of the Houston
metro area. Atmosphere should be more stable thanks to this
morning's rain, so expecting coverage to be isolated to widely
scattered. Cloud ceilings will vary between VFR and MVFR
throughout the day. After sunset, ceilings will trend more towards
MVFR with low-level moisture becoming trapped under the nocturnal
inversion. Southeasterly winds become light and variable shortly
after sunset as the pressure gradient weakens. For our inland
sites (HOU/SGR and northward), there is another potential for
patchy fog beginning around 09z early Wednesday and persisting
until the late morning hours. Northern sites (CLL, UTS, CXO) will
likely experience IFR cloud ceilings in this time frame. Ceilings
will lift as mixing and southerly winds pick up in the 7-10 knot
range. Showers will get another early start tomorrow moving in
from south to north. Introduced VCSH for the southern sites around
08z-09z, 12z for the central sites, and 15z for the northern
sites. Expecting tomorrow's shower/storm coverage to be more
widespread than today's.

Batiste

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 517 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday Night]...
Starting off the morning with an active radar. Speed convergence
and coastal troughing helping to focus storms into southwest
counties early this morning and 2+". May have an MCV forming in
SW Matagorda county as well which could further enhance rain rates
there. Expecting storms to continue to shift inland this morning
with continued redevelopment in the coastal waters and immediate
coastal areas until the coastal speed convergence diminishes and
the focus starts shifting inland. CAPE by 10am should be reaching
the 1300-1700j/kg range and storm motions around 10 knots/PW
1.8-2.0" so heavy downpours look likely. Rainfall rates of 2"/hour
are likely and approaching 3" occasionally until late afternoon
and by then storms should slightly drier air aloft and a little
more wind in the profile storms may speed up and lessen the
accumulations. Temperatures today will be moderated by the precip
and cloud cover through early afternoon. If storms move further
inland then could get some more sun and temperatures over the
south could be too low by a few degrees but 85-87 should be the
top. Northeastern counties will probably be the "driest". Storms
should taper off in the early evening hours with active storms
still hanging out offshore on the tail end of the speed max
passing through the coastal/waters areas with the 250mb shear axis
stalled out over the CWA from SW to NE. Wednesday morning starts
over the water again then shifts into the coastal counties
especially the southwestern counties then following the typical
summer pattern focus inland in the afternoon.

Well to the east of the region TS Elsa moving NNW/N and trying to
reorganize after it's Cuba interaction. No significant track
changes as it continue northward aiming for impacts all along the
western Florida peninsula today and early Wednesday.

45

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Rain chances will begin to diminish slightly on Thursday as upper-
level low pressure over Southern TX shifts to the west/southwest
while upper ridging builds into the central CONUS. That being said,
conditions for diurnally driven showers and storms will remain
favorable through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. A
tightening surface pressure gradient will enhance moisture transport
to the region, generally keeping PW values at or above 2.0 in
through Saturday. This, combined with convective temperatures in the
mid-80s and the daily inland propagation of the sea breeze boundary
should prove favorable for the development of scattered showers and
storms mainly during the daytime hours. As we've seen over the past
couple of days, any stronger storms that do develop may produce
brief periods of localized heavy rain. Despite this, widespread
flooding impacts are not anticipated at this time.

Global model solutions begin to diverge a bit towards the end of the
weekend and into the beginning of next week. The general evolution
of the synoptic pattern should surround the approach of a mid/upper
shortwave trough by late Sunday/early Monday. This feature remains
more amplified in the GFS compared to the EC, placing the northern
half of the CWA within the favorable right entry region of an
associated weak upper jet streak. The resultant enhancement in
divergence aloft may be conducive for more widespread/heavier
rainfall through Tuesday, though current model QPFs do not indicate
the potential for any flash flooding.

Daily high temperatures should generally remain below normal given
continued broken to overcast cloud cover and scattered
precipitation. Temperatures may trend closer to normal values by
early next week depending on the extent to which scattered rainfall
continues, though in general highs should remain confined to near 90
across most inland areas. Overnight lows should remain in the
mid/upper 70s inland and around 80 near the coast.

Cady

.MARINE...

Relatively calm conditions continue to persist offshore, with winds
generally remaining around 10 knots and seas remaining light.
Despite this, mariners should remain cognizant of the possibility of
showers and thunderstorms as the wet pattern of the last few days
continues through mid-week. While rainfall coverage should be fairly
scattered, there is a potential for some stronger storms to develop
which may produce heavy downpours and gusty winds. By the end of the
week and into the weekend, onshore flow is expected to strengthen to
around 15-20 knots with seas also building to around 5 feet. This
will likely require cautions and/or advisories across the nearshore
and offshore waters. Rainfall chances begin to diminish slightly
during this time.

Cady

.CLIMATE...
Huntsville was the big rainfall winner yesterday of the ASOS
sites with 2.54" that puts their July total at 2.95" and that will
help them recover from the June deficit. A few of the Harris
county gages and surrounding sites popped with 2+" as well for
yesterday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  72  86  72  89  74 /  30  50  10  60  20
Houston (IAH)          74  82  74  89  76 /  60  70  30  70  40
Galveston (GLS)        78  83  79  88  80 /  70  70  30  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...Batiste