Alert archive / New Hampshire / Winter Storm Watches in 2021

Winter Storm Watch 4, NWS Gray, ME

February 14, 20218 counties in New Hampshire; 4 counties in Maine

NWS Gray, ME issued this winter storm watch at Feb 14, 2021, 2:30 AM EST for 8 counties in New Hampshire; 4 counties in Maine. It took effect at Feb 15, 2021, 11:00 PM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 14, 2021, 2:30 AM EST (07:30 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 15, 2021, 11:00 PM EST
Expired
Feb 15, 2021, 5:32 AM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS Gray, ME

Counties Cumberland County, ME, Franklin County, ME, Oxford County, ME, Somerset County, ME, Belknap County, NH, Carroll County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Coos County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Sullivan County, NH

The radar

The Portland,ME radar (KGYX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Gray, ME (KGYX), launched 00:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 80 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Gray, ME at 00:00Z on 2021-02-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Gray, ME at 00:00Z on 2021-02-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -32 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2044 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
68 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-32 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
164 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

212 
WWUS41 KGYX 140730
WSWGYX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
230 AM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT 
AND TUESDAY...

.Low pressure will lift north and east from the Gulf of Mexico on 
Monday...passing over or just south of southern New England on 
Tuesday.  This will result in snow overspreading the region late 
Monday night and continuing through Tuesday before tapering off 
Tuesday evening.  The potential exists for over six inches of snow.  
Sleet and freezing rain may also mix with the snow on Tuesday over 
portions of the area.

MEZ007>009-NHZ001>004-142000-
/O.NEW.KGYX.WS.A.0004.210216T0400Z-210217T0400Z/
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Northern Coos-
Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-
Including the cities of Lancaster, Albany, Jackson, Upton,
Thornton, Wilsons Mills, Woodstock, Phillips, Crawford Notch,
Sugar Hill, Millsfield, Bingham, Littleton, Berlin, Jackman,
Colebrook, Avon, Seboomook, Pittston Farm, Lincoln, Conway,
Roxbury, Moosehead, Errol, Oquossoc, Kingfield, North Conway,
Davis, Long Pond, Coburn Gore, Chatham, Middle Dam, South Arm,
Rangeley, Byron, Andover, Milan, Bethlehem, New Portland, York
Pond, Dummer, Waterville Valley, and Brassua
230 AM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Snow accumulation of greater than 6 
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Northern portions of west central and western Maine. 
  Portions of northern New Hampshire.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to low visibility and 
  snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the 
  Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

MEZ012>014-033-NHZ005>009-142000-
/O.NEW.KGYX.WS.A.0004.210216T0400Z-210217T0400Z/
Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior
Cumberland Highlands-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-
Merrimack-Belknap-
Including the cities of Rumford, Bridgton, Moultonborough, Unity,
Jay, Wilton, Bridgewater, Athens, Bryant Pond, Lyme, Fryeburg,
Chesterville, Rumney, Norway, Temple, Cornish, Bethel, Grantham,
Pittsfield, Wolfeboro, Claremont, Ossipee, Naples, Meredith,
Boscawen, Farmington, Oxford, Hooksett, Cornville, Brookfield,
Dunbarton, Milton, Hanover, Newry, Laconia, Locke Mills,
Wakefield, Skowhegan, Plymouth, Newport, Canterbury, New Sharon,
Ashland, Tuftonboro, Lempster, Goshen, Madison, Charlestown, New
Vineyard, Concord, Lebanon, Holderness, Ellsworth, Croydon,
Gilford, Harrison, Loudon, Palmyra, and Embden
230 AM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Snow accumulation of greater than 6 
  inches is possible.  There is the potential for snow to mix with 
  sleet and freezing rain on Tuesday.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and western Maine. Portions of 
  central  New Hampshire.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to low visibility and 
  snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the 
  Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

ARNOTT
4 follow-up statements
675 
WWUS41 KGYX 142022
WSWGYX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
322 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT 
AND TUESDAY...

.Low pressure will lift north and east from the Gulf of Mexico on 
Monday...passing over or just south of southern New England on 
Tuesday.  This will result in snow overspreading the region late 
Monday night and continuing through Tuesday before tapering off 
Tuesday evening.  The potential exists for over six inches of snow.  
Sleet and freezing rain may also mix with the snow on Tuesday over 
portions of the area.

NHZ011-015-150430-
/O.EXA.KGYX.WS.A.0004.210216T0400Z-210217T0400Z/
Cheshire-Western And Central Hillsborough-
Including the cities of Sharon, Milford, Peterborough, Gilsum,
Sullivan, Surry, Marlow, Hollis, Weare, Goffstown, Amherst, Mont
Vernon, Jaffrey, and Keene
322 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Snow accumulation of greater than 6 
  inches is possible.  There is the potential for snow to mix with 
  sleet and freezing rain on Tuesday.

* WHERE...Western and Central Hillsborough and Cheshire Counties.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions due to snow covered 
  roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning 
  and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

MEZ007>009-NHZ001>004-150430-
/O.CON.KGYX.WS.A.0004.210216T0400Z-210217T0400Z/
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Northern Coos-
Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-
Including the cities of Lancaster, Albany, Jackson, Upton,
Thornton, Wilsons Mills, Woodstock, Phillips, Crawford Notch,
Sugar Hill, Millsfield, Bingham, Littleton, Berlin, Jackman,
Colebrook, Avon, Seboomook, Pittston Farm, Lincoln, Conway,
Roxbury, Moosehead, Errol, Oquossoc, Kingfield, North Conway,
Davis, Long Pond, Coburn Gore, Chatham, Middle Dam, South Arm,
Rangeley, Byron, Andover, Milan, Bethlehem, New Portland, York
Pond, Dummer, Waterville Valley, and Brassua
322 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Snow accumulation of greater than 6 
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of west central and western Maine. Portions of 
  northern New Hampshire.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to low visibility and 
  snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the 
  Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

MEZ012>014-033-NHZ005>009-150430-
/O.CON.KGYX.WS.A.0004.210216T0400Z-210217T0400Z/
Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior
Cumberland Highlands-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-
Merrimack-Belknap-
Including the cities of Rumford, Bridgton, Moultonborough, Unity,
Jay, Wilton, Bridgewater, Athens, Bryant Pond, Lyme, Fryeburg,
Chesterville, Rumney, Norway, Temple, Cornish, Bethel, Grantham,
Pittsfield, Wolfeboro, Claremont, Ossipee, Naples, Meredith,
Boscawen, Farmington, Oxford, Hooksett, Cornville, Brookfield,
Dunbarton, Milton, Hanover, Newry, Laconia, Locke Mills,
Wakefield, Skowhegan, Plymouth, Newport, Canterbury, New Sharon,
Ashland, Tuftonboro, Lempster, Goshen, Madison, Charlestown, New
Vineyard, Concord, Lebanon, Holderness, Ellsworth, Croydon,
Gilford, Harrison, Loudon, Palmyra, and Embden
322 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Snow accumulation of greater than 6 
  inches is possible.  There is the potential for snow to mix with 
  sleet and freezing rain on Tuesday.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and western Maine. Portions of 
  central and northern New Hampshire.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to low visibility and 
  snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the 
  Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

Cempa
689 
WWUS41 KGYX 150352
WSWGYX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
1052 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPIATION LIKELY LATER MONDAY NIGHT 
AND TUESDAY...

.Low pressure will lift north and east from the Gulf of Mexico on 
Monday...passing over or just south of southern New England on 
Tuesday.  This will result in snow overspreading the region late 
Monday night and continuing through Tuesday before tapering off 
Tuesday evening. In addition, significant mixed precipitation is 
also a good possibility, especially across southern New Hampshire 
and southernmost Maine.

MEZ007>009-NHZ001>004-151200-
/O.CON.KGYX.WS.A.0004.210216T0400Z-210217T0400Z/
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Northern Coos-
Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-
Including the cities of Lancaster, Albany, Jackson, Upton,
Thornton, Wilsons Mills, Woodstock, Phillips, Crawford Notch,
Sugar Hill, Millsfield, Bingham, Littleton, Berlin, Jackman,
Colebrook, Avon, Seboomook, Pittston Farm, Lincoln, Conway,
Roxbury, Moosehead, Errol, Oquossoc, Kingfield, North Conway,
Davis, Long Pond, Coburn Gore, Chatham, Middle Dam, South Arm,
Rangeley, Byron, Andover, Milan, Bethlehem, New Portland, York
Pond, Dummer, Waterville Valley, and Brassua
1052 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Snow accumulation of greater than 6 
  inches possible, likely mixing with sleet.

* WHERE...Northern New Hampshire as well as the western Maine 
  Mountains and foothills.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to low visibility and 
  snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the 
  Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

MEZ012>014-033-NHZ005>009-011-015-151200-
/O.CON.KGYX.WS.A.0004.210216T0400Z-210217T0400Z/
Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior
Cumberland Highlands-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-
Merrimack-Belknap-Cheshire-Western And Central Hillsborough-
Including the cities of Rumford, Bridgton, Moultonborough, Unity,
Jay, Wilton, Bridgewater, Athens, Bryant Pond, Lyme, Fryeburg,
Chesterville, Goffstown, Rumney, Norway, Temple, Jaffrey,
Cornish, Bethel, Grantham, Peterborough, Pittsfield, Wolfeboro,
Claremont, Ossipee, Naples, Meredith, Weare, Boscawen,
Farmington, Oxford, Hooksett, Cornville, Brookfield, Dunbarton,
Milton, Hanover, Surry, Newry, Laconia, Locke Mills, Wakefield,
Skowhegan, Hollis, Plymouth, Newport, Canterbury, New Sharon,
Ashland, Mont Vernon, Tuftonboro, Lempster, Keene, Goshen,
Marlow, Madison, Charlestown, New Vineyard, Concord, Sullivan,
Gilsum, Lebanon, Holderness, Ellsworth, Sharon, Croydon, Milford,
Gilford, Amherst, Harrison, Loudon, Palmyra, and Embden
1052 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet 
  accumulations between 2 to 8 inches and ice accumulations around 
  one quarter of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern and central New Hampshire as well as 
  interior western Maine.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to low visibility and 
  snow and ice covered roads. The hazardous conditions could impact 
  the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

MLE
508 
WWUS41 KGYX 150859
WSWGYX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
359 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND 
TUESDAY...

.Low pressure will lift north and east from the Gulf of Mexico
today...passing over or just south of southern New England on 
Tuesday. This will result in snow overspreading the region late 
tonight. This snow will then mix with and change to sleet and 
freezing rain along the coast and into the foothills...with mostly
snow in the mountains. Some uncertainty remains with the exact 
location of the heaviest snow and ice. 

MEZ007>009-NHZ001>004-152000-
/O.UPG.KGYX.WS.A.0004.210216T0400Z-210217T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KGYX.WS.W.0004.210216T0400Z-210217T0400Z/
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Northern Coos-
Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-
Including the cities of Upton, Wilsons Mills, Andover, Byron, 
Middle Dam, Roxbury, South Arm, Coburn Gore, Davis, Oquossoc, 
Rangeley, Avon, Kingfield, Phillips, New Portland, Brassua, 
Long Pond, Moosehead, Pittston Farm, Seboomook, Bingham, Jackman,
Errol, Millsfield, Colebrook, Berlin, Dummer, Milan, York Pond, 
Lancaster, Bethlehem, Lincoln, Littleton, Sugar Hill, Thornton, 
Waterville Valley, Woodstock, Jackson, North Conway, Albany, 
Conway, Chatham, and Crawford Notch
359 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and sleet expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 5 to 8 inches and sleet accumulations of around 1/2 of an 
  inch expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Hampshire and west central 
  and western Maine.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

For a more precise forecast for your specific location...go to
www.weather.gov/gray..

&&

$$

NHZ007>009-011-015-152000-
/O.UPG.KGYX.WS.A.0004.210216T0400Z-210217T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KGYX.WW.Y.0007.210216T0400Z-210217T0000Z/
Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Cheshire-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
Including the cities of Claremont, Cornish, Unity, Croydon, 
Goshen, Grantham, Lempster, Newport, Charlestown, Boscawen, 
Canterbury, Concord, Dunbarton, Loudon, Hooksett, Laconia, 
Gilford, Meredith, Gilsum, Keene, Marlow, Sullivan, Surry, 
Jaffrey, Amherst, Milford, Mont Vernon, Goffstown, Peterborough, 
Sharon, Hollis, and Weare
359 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 4 inches, sleet accumulations of around 3/4 of an inch 
  and ice accumulations of around three tenths of an inch 
  expected.

* WHERE...Sullivan, Merrimack, Belknap, Cheshire and Western and 
  Central Hillsborough Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Isolated power outages possible due to the weighted
  branches. Travel will be hazardous. The hazardous conditions
  will impact the morning and evening commutes.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For a more precise forecast for your specific location...go to
www.weather.gov/gray..

&&

$$

MEZ018-023-NHZ010-152000-
/O.NEW.KGYX.WW.Y.0007.210216T0400Z-210217T0000Z/
Interior York-Coastal York-Strafford-
Including the cities of Hollis, Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford, 
Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington, Berwick, Biddeford, Saco, 
Old Orchard Beach, Kittery, Barrington, Rochester, Dover, 
Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, and Madbury
359 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 4 inches, sleet accumulations of around 1/2 of an inch 
  and ice accumulations of around one quarter of an inch 
  expected.

* WHERE...In New Hampshire, Strafford County. In Maine, Interior 
  York and Coastal York Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For a more precise forecast for your specific location...go to
www.weather.gov/gray..

&&

$$

MEZ019>022-024>028-152000-
/O.NEW.KGYX.WW.Y.0007.210216T0400Z-210217T0000Z/
Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Including the cities of New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham, 
Gorham, Greene, Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn,
Livermore Falls, Augusta, Sidney, Windsor, Vassalboro, 
Waterville, China, Palermo, Brooks, Jackson, Knox, Liberty, 
Montville, Morrill, Waldo, Winterport, Unity, Portland, 
Cape Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick, 
Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin, 
Whitefield, Dresden, Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, 
Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset, Waldoboro, Owls Head, 
Rockland, Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport, Thomaston, Belfast, 
Northport, Searsmont, and Lincolnville
359 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 3 to 5 inches, sleet accumulations of around 1/2 of an inch 
  and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an inch expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Maine.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For a more precise forecast for your specific location...go to
www.weather.gov/gray..

&&

$$

NHZ012>014-152000-
/O.NEW.KGYX.WW.Y.0007.210216T0400Z-210217T0000Z/
Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-
Including the cities of Manchester, Pelham, Nashua, Salem, 
Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry, Hampstead, Exeter, 
Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton, Hampton Falls, 
North Hampton, and Seabrook
359 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to two inches, sleet accumulations of around 1/2 of an 
  inch and ice accumulations of around one quarter of an inch 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Hillsborough, Interior Rockingham and Coastal 
  Rockingham Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Isolated power outages possible due to the weighted
  branches. Travel will be hazardous. The hazardous conditions
  will impact the morning and evening commutes.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For a more precise forecast for your specific location...go to
www.weather.gov/gray..

&&

$$

MEZ012>014-033-NHZ005-006-152000-
/O.CON.KGYX.WS.A.0004.210216T0400Z-210217T0400Z/
Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-
Interior Cumberland Highlands-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-
Including the cities of Bethel, Bryant Pond, Hanover, 
Locke Mills, Milton, Newry, Rumford, Norway, Fryeburg, Oxford, 
Farmington, New Sharon, New Vineyard, Temple, Wilton, 
Chesterville, Jay, Athens, Cornville, Skowhegan, Palmyra, 
Pittsfield, Embden, Madison, Bridgton, Harrison, Naples, Lebanon,
Lyme, Ashland, Ellsworth, Holderness, Plymouth, Rumney, 
Wakefield, Bridgewater, Brookfield, Ossipee, Tuftonboro, 
Wolfeboro, and Moultonborough
359 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Snow accumulation of
  up to 6 inches is possible along with sleet and freezing rain.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Hampshire and south central 
  and western Maine.

* WHEN...From this evening through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

ARNOTT
535 
WWUS41 KGYX 151032
WSWGYX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
532 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.Low pressure will lift north and east from the Gulf of Mexico
today...passing over or just south of southern New England on
Tuesday. This will result in snow overspreading the region late
tonight. This snow will then mix with and change to sleet and
freezing rain along the coast and into the foothills...with
mostly snow in the mountains. Some uncertainty remains with the
exact location of the heaviest snow and ice.

MEZ012>014-033-NHZ005-006-151845-
/O.UPG.KGYX.WS.A.0004.210216T0400Z-210217T0400Z/
/O.EXA.KGYX.WS.W.0004.210216T0400Z-210217T0400Z/
Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-
Interior Cumberland Highlands-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-
Including the cities of Bethel, Bryant Pond, Hanover, 
Locke Mills, Milton, Newry, Rumford, Norway, Fryeburg, Oxford, 
Farmington, New Sharon, New Vineyard, Temple, Wilton, 
Chesterville, Jay, Athens, Cornville, Skowhegan, Palmyra, 
Pittsfield, Embden, Madison, Bridgton, Harrison, Naples, Lebanon,
Lyme, Ashland, Ellsworth, Holderness, Plymouth, Rumney, 
Wakefield, Bridgewater, Brookfield, Ossipee, Tuftonboro, 
Wolfeboro, and Moultonborough
532 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 6 inches, sleet accumulations of around 
  3/4 of an inch and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an 
  inch expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Hampshire and south central 
  and western Maine.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

For a more precise forecast for your specific location...go to
www.weather.gov/gray..

&&

$$

MEZ007>009-NHZ001>004-151845-
/O.CON.KGYX.WS.W.0004.210216T0400Z-210217T0400Z/
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Northern Coos-
Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-
Including the cities of Upton, Wilsons Mills, Andover, Byron, 
Middle Dam, Roxbury, South Arm, Coburn Gore, Davis, Oquossoc, 
Rangeley, Avon, Kingfield, Phillips, New Portland, Brassua, 
Long Pond, Moosehead, Pittston Farm, Seboomook, Bingham, Jackman,
Errol, Millsfield, Colebrook, Berlin, Dummer, Milan, York Pond, 
Lancaster, Bethlehem, Lincoln, Littleton, Sugar Hill, Thornton, 
Waterville Valley, Woodstock, Jackson, North Conway, Albany, 
Conway, Chatham, and Crawford Notch
532 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and sleet expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 5 to 9 inches and sleet accumulations of around 1/2 of an 
  inch expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Hampshire and west central 
  and western Maine.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

For a more precise forecast for your specific location...go to
www.weather.gov/gray..

&&

$$

MEZ018-023-NHZ007>011-015-151845-
/O.CON.KGYX.WW.Y.0007.210216T0400Z-210217T0000Z/
Interior York-Coastal York-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-
Cheshire-Western And Central Hillsborough-
Including the cities of Hollis, Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford, 
Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington, Berwick, Biddeford, Saco, 
Old Orchard Beach, Kittery, Claremont, Cornish, Unity, Croydon, 
Goshen, Grantham, Lempster, Newport, Charlestown, Boscawen, 
Canterbury, Concord, Dunbarton, Loudon, Hooksett, Laconia, 
Gilford, Meredith, Barrington, Rochester, Dover, Rollinsford, 
Somersworth, Durham, Madbury, Gilsum, Keene, Marlow, Sullivan, 
Surry, Jaffrey, Amherst, Milford, Mont Vernon, Goffstown, 
Peterborough, Sharon, and Weare
532 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 4 inches, sleet accumulations of around 1/2 of an inch 
  and ice accumulations of around one quarter of an inch 
  expected.

* WHERE...In New Hampshire, Strafford County. In Maine, Interior 
  York and Coastal York Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For a more precise forecast for your specific location...go to
www.weather.gov/gray..

&&

$$

MEZ019>022-024>028-151845-
/O.CON.KGYX.WW.Y.0007.210216T0400Z-210217T0000Z/
Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Including the cities of New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham, 
Gorham, Greene, Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn,
Livermore Falls, Augusta, Sidney, Windsor, Vassalboro, 
Waterville, China, Palermo, Brooks, Jackson, Knox, Liberty, 
Montville, Morrill, Waldo, Winterport, Unity, Portland, 
Cape Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick, 
Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin, 
Whitefield, Dresden, Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, 
Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset, Waldoboro, Owls Head, 
Rockland, Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport, Thomaston, Belfast, 
Northport, Searsmont, and Lincolnville
532 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 3 to 5 inches, sleet accumulations of around 1/2 of an inch 
  and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an inch expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Maine.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For a more precise forecast for your specific location...go to
www.weather.gov/gray..

&&

$$

NHZ012>014-151845-
/O.CON.KGYX.WW.Y.0007.210216T0400Z-210217T0000Z/
Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-
Including the cities of Manchester, Pelham, Nashua, Salem, 
Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry, Hampstead, Exeter, 
Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton, Hampton Falls, 
North Hampton, and Seabrook
532 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to two inches, sleet accumulations of around 1/2 of an 
  inch and ice accumulations of around one quarter of an inch 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Hillsborough, Interior Rockingham and Coastal 
  Rockingham Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Isolated power outages possible due to the weighted
  branches. Travel will be hazardous. The hazardous conditions
  will impact the morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For a more precise forecast for your specific location...go to
www.weather.gov/gray..

&&

$$

ARNOTT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gray, ME wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Feb 13, 10:32 PM EST, 3 hours 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 13, 10:32 PM EST, 3 hours 58 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1032 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system brings the chance for some light snow
or even patchy freezing drizzle Sunday morning. That will begin
what should be an active weather week...with another round of
light snow possible late Monday before a more substantial system
brings snow and possibly some mixed precipitation to the region
Tuesday. Another storm system is expected by the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM Update...We continue to be dry this evening as we're
in between two areas of relatively weak forcing for ascent.
Much of the night will be cloudy and dry with light winds.
However, it's possible that we'll see some very light snow or
flurries Sunday morning, with perhaps a few pockets of freezing
drizzle. Not big changes to the forecast at this hour except for
adjust temperatures a little bit.

630 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast other than
to lower PoPs a bit for tonight - more in line with the latest
HRRR guidance. Otherwise, just a few minor adjustments to
temperatures.

Previously...

Impacts: Very light snow possible early Sunday morning, especially
for NH and far western portions of western ME. Could make for slick
travel.

It's quiet out there at this hour as mid and high clouds continue to
stream overhead. Conditions should remain quiet through the late
evening as well with clouds thickening and lowering as we head into
tonight.

Low pressure will slide off the mid-Atlantic coast tonight and a
shortwave will move across New England. These two features will
provide just enough forcing to generate a coating of snow before
sunrise, primarily in NH and portions of far western ME. Even a few
tenths will be enough to make roads slick for travelers on Sunday
morning, especially with temperatures in the single digits and
teens and road temperatures expected to be near or below
freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Impacts: Very light snow continues into Sunday morning with slick
roads expected. Will continue assessing the potential for freezing
drizzle for late Sunday morning as the precipitation comes to an
end.

With the low pressure continuing to move east and the shortwave
pulling off to the north, forcing for ascent will quickly wane late
Sunday morning, but probably not before most of the region picks up
another tenth or two of snowfall.

Do want to mention the possibility of light freezing drizzle Sunday
morning as well. A look at forecast soundings around the area shows
a nearly saturated layer from the surface to between 700 and 800 mb,
some weak upward vertical motion and a deep dry layer collocated
with the DGZ above the saturated layer and inversion. Not confident
enough to put it in the grids with this package as temperatures in
the lower levels may still be just cold enough for snow to develop
instead. Even light freezing drizzle could be impactful, especially
on already lightly snow-covered roads, so will mention in the HWO
now and let subsequent shifts continue to assess.

Highs will range from the mid 20s north to the lower 30s south; some
locations in southern NH may make a push to get above freezing. Any
precipitation should be coming to an end by early afternoon, but
clouds will persist over southern and western areas into the evening.
Quiet conditions return Sunday night with partly to mostly cloudy
skies and lows ranging from the positive single digits north to the
upper teens south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An active week is in store as we deal with two winter systems,
one on Tuesday and another at the end of the week. This is
mainly the result of strong ridging over the Atlantic
colliding with remnant polar vortex cross Ontario and srn
Quebec. This will great strong temp/gradient across New
England, so any waves that pass thru at 500 MB will be able to
produce strong thermal advection. An temps fluctuate a bit
around these systems, although not too badly as low levels will
mostly stay cooler, thanks to NW-NE flow.

Monday could start off with some sun, but clouds will thicken as
we see some weak mid-level FG and tightening of the temp
gradient. Could see some SHSN or maybe some very light snow
associated with this FG, but mostly looks light, and may have a
tough time since it will likely falling from somewhere between
5-10k ft, and initially airmass near the sfc will be dry. Highs
Monday will be in the mid 20s to low 30s. May see a little
break before we start to see precip moving in from the coastal
low, likely after midnight and closer to daybreak in central ME.
P-type is one of the bigger questions, although it will all
start as snow. Models have not instilled a lot of confidence
regarding progression poleward of the warmer mid level, and the
12Z Euro has come in cooler, which would mean more snow. Still
I think there's a possibility of seeing some PL or FZRA mixing
in on Tuesday across SE NH and the ME coast, but not confident
on how much or how that will affect snow amts. Overall QPF still
coming around 0.75." I don't think anywhere will rise above
freezing but some coastal areas and the MHT-ASH corridor could
see temps of 30-32, with 20s elsewhere. Precip should wind down
late afternoon to early evening, with colder air moving in and
upslope SHSN Tue night.

The 500 MB trough tamps down the ridging on Wed, and some cooler
air will work in with high mainly in the 20s on Wed. Expect
mountain clouds and mainly sunny skies S of the mtns.

The next system approaches Thu and should impact the area Thu
night into Friday. This wave is a little weaker, with not as
cold air to the N than the Tuesday system, and should see the
ridge, and the surge of warm air aloft to have a snow to mix to
rain event in the srn areas. Of course this is day 6, so
confidence is low attm.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions expected at all terminals through this
evening. Ceilings will begin to lower after midnight but should
stay above MVFR levels until around 12Z. Chances for snow begin
to ramp up between 06Z and 12Z, but at this time, the only
places where confidence was high enough for me to put snow in
the TAF was at HIE and LEB. Do think that MHT/CON/PSM/PWM have
decent chances as well, but could also be FZDZ...and even if it
does snow, it will likely be brief and very light or could just
be flurries. Will let future TAF packages assess the possibility
at those sites with additional data this evening.

Long Term...Monday could start as mainly VFR, but should see
MVFR cigs become predominant during the afternoon, with possible
IFR vis in spotty -SN. Tuesday will likely be stuck in IFR or
lower all day in mostly SN, although there is some potential
for PL or FZRA at KMHT/KPSM/KPWM/KCON. Tue evening will start
to see improvement with VFR returning by late Tue night. VFR is
expected Wed-Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Seas will remain rather calm through the short
term. Winds will become more northeasterly tonight as low
pressure passes to the southeast of the waters, gusting to 15-20
kt at times. Winds then turn more northerly late Sunday into
Sunday night but remain well below SCA criteria.

Long Term...SCA will likely be needed late Mon night into Wed,
and initially E flow develops ahead of coastal storm, then
shifts to NW behind the storm Tue night and Wed.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We are in the midst of what is likely to be the longest
continuous freeze of the season. While the most intense of the
cold air is likely to remain well to our west, the sustained
period of subfreezing temperatures is likely to be the longest
observed in this region since the Great New Year's Cold Snap of
2017-2018.

The first subfreezing day in our current stretch was on February
7 and is ongoing. Current forecasts project subfreezing
temperatures will last deep into next week, likely approaching
or exceeding 10 straight days at or below freezing.

At Portland, a stretch of 7+ days at or below 32 has occurred
118 times in 80 years of records. This averages out to about 3
times every two years. The last stretch of 7+ days at 32 or
colder occurred from December 15 thru 21, 2020. This stretch of
subfreezing temperatures is likely to be the longest since the
stretch of 15 days observed from December 25, 2017 thru January
8, 2018. The longest stretch of subfreezing days was 23 days and
occurred twice, from January 25 thru February 16, 2007 and from
December 8 thru December 30, 1989. Temperature records at
Portland began in 1940.

At Concord, a stretch of 7+ days at or below 32 has occurred 228
times in 133 years of records. This averages out to about 5
times every 3 years. The last stretch of 7+ days at 32 or colder
occurred from January 28 thru February 3, 2019. This stretch of
subfreezing temperatures is likely to be the longest since the
stretch of 15 days observed from December 25, 2017 thru January
8, 2018. The longest stretch of subfreezing days was 37 days
from December 22, 1976 thru January 27, 1977. Temperature
records at Concord began in 1868.

At Augusta, a stretch of 7+ days at or below 32 has occurred 173
times in 73 years of records. This averages out to more than
twice per year. The last stretch of 7+ days at 32 or colder
occurred from December 15 thru 21, 2020. This stretch of
subfreezing temperatures is expected to be the longest since the
stretch of 15 days observed from December 25, 2017 thru January
8, 2018. The longest stretch of subfreezing days was 33 days and
occurred twice, from January 20 thru February 21, 2015 and from
January 4 thru February 5, 1955. Temperature records at Augusta
began in 1948.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Ekster/Watson
SHORT TERM...Watson
LONG TERM...Cempa
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 13, 4:02 PM EST, 10 hours 28 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
402 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

MEZ018>028-033-NHZ007>015-142115-
Interior York-Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-
Interior Waldo-Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-
Knox-Coastal Waldo-Interior Cumberland Highlands-Sullivan-Merrimack-
Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-
Coastal Rockingham-Western And Central Hillsborough-
402 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire, central New
Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
There is a chance for some spotty freezing drizzle Sunday morning,
which could make roads slippery.

A widespread snow event is expected beginning late Monday night and
continuing through Tuesday. There will be some potential for sleet or
freezing rain to mix in with snow along the coast. The potential
exists for six or more inches of snow.

Another weather system will impact the region to end the week with
the potential for snow or a wintry mix.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ007>009-012>014-NHZ001>006-142115-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-
Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-
402 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine, west
central Maine, western Maine and northern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A widespread snow event is expected beginning late Monday night and
continuing through Tuesday. There will be some potential for sleet or
freezing rain to mix in with snow along the coast. The potential
exists for six or more inches of snow.

Another weather system will impact the region to end the week with
the potential for snow or a wintry mix.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ150>154-142115-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
402 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is some potential for a few gale force wind gusts in the outer
waters Tuesday and Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Nearby

Winter Storm Watches in New Hampshire, 2021Winter Storm Watches in Maine, 2021Every winter storm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.