Special Weather Statement, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
336 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are across the region this
afternoon and will wane as the sunsets. High pressure will build
in with clear skies tomorrow. A front will approach the region
overnight Saturday and cross the area on Sunday morning bringing
widespread rain and thunder.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across the region
this afternoon as upper level trough keeps freezing levels low.
Most of these storms are Pulse type, quick to intensify and
quick to pass. With the low freezing levels have had reports of
hail and expect some very isolated wind damage with the
strongest cores collapsing. Convective initiation is very much
tied to the diurnal heating and thus expect the reverse later
this evening with coverage rapidly decreasing after sunset. HRRR
has done a good job with the timing and general coverage of the
convection and have leaned on it for the PoP for the next
several hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Overnight after storms decrease we'll see clear skies.
Satellite reveals a broad area of dry air to our west and expect
temperatures to fall rapidly as a result. Lows will drop the low
50s with some northern valleys in the 40s. While it's generally
dry, midday dew points are in the 50s and expect fog to form in
the CT river valley, and possibly up into the northern
Androscoggin.

For Saturday expect clear skies with high pressure. A robust
seabreeze will likely push inland as far as Sebago lake and keep
temperatures cooler along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will be passing well north of the area as it travels
through central Quebec Sunday morning, with a warm front associated
with the system approaching the area at this time. Widespread shower
ahead of the front will be ongoing Sunday morning. The rain will
mostly end across western New Hampshire by the early afternoon as
the region tries to break into the warm sector behind the warm
front. The warm air is notoriously stubborn to actually make it in
with these type of set ups, but if and where it does make will stand
the best chance of seeing a few stronger thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon as the cold front approaches. Areas farther east into
Maine will likely hold onto the showers for more of the afternoon
hours, thus minimizing the risk of storms across these areas.

The front will most likely be clearing the coastline by Monday
morning, with our trough dominated pattern continuing for the
foreseeable future. Next week will continue to be characterized by
temperatures generally near to below normal, with frontal passages
roughly every other day and broad surface high pressure in between.

High pressure looks to be in control for Monday, with seasonable
highs and mainly sunny skies. A cold front will approach later
Tuesday, likely brining a round of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. The front will likely clear the area on Wednesday,
yielding clearing and improving conditions during the daytime
on Wednesday as weak high pressure builds into the area for
Wednesday night and Thursday. Another front will likely approach
the area by late next week, but it's too early to tell and
there is significant model divergence on where and when the low
will track through, so at this time I'm keeping an increased
chance of POP's for the end of the time period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
across the region and may briefly impact CON MHT PSM through the
next few hours. Showers will end after sunset with valley fog in
the CT river impacting HIE and LEB overnight. Sunny skies and
VFR will continue through the day on Saturday.

Long Term...
Widespread showers will bring restrictions Sunday morning,
lasting through most of the afternoon across eastern terminals,
while western terminals see a period of VFR/MVFR conditions Sunday
starting late morning before scattered thunderstorms develop in the
late afternoon hours. VFR conditions return Monday, with
another chance of showers and storms returning Tuesday
afternoon. VFR conditions likely return later on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term... Few scattered thunderstorms will move over Casco
Bay and the midcoast for the next few hours. Otherwise calm
winds and seas will hold through the start of the weekend.

Long Term...
A front will cross the region on Sunday morning with rain, and
thunderstorms. Winds will go NW behind the front.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides will bring water levels just to minor
flood stage across New Hampshire and southwest Maine. With calm
seas and little wave action have opted for a Coastal Flood
statement to highlight the elevated water levels.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Curtis
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Clair/Legro
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
306 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

MEZ023-024-NHZ014-240715-
Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Coastal Rockingham-
306 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Maine and southern
New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Astronomical tides peak tonight and given that recent tides have
managed to rise a little higher than predicted some minor flooding is
possible in the low lying areas from Portland south to the Seacoast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-025>028-033-NHZ001>013-015-240715-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-Interior Cumberland Highlands-
Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-
Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-
Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
306 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire,
central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New
Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ150>154-240715-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
306 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     HAIL             BRUNSWICK               43.92N 69.97W
07/23/2021  E0.25 INCH       CUMBERLAND         ME   PUBLIC

            0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

&&

NB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MADISON                 43.90N 71.15W
07/23/2021                   CARROLL            NH   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE BRANCHES DOWN DUE TO THUNDERSTORM
            WINDS.

&&

NB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
334 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

MEZ020-232000-
Androscoggin-
334 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ANDROSCOGGIN
COUNTY...

At 333 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lewiston,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lewiston, Turner, Lisbon, Greene, Durham, Sabattus, Minot and Wales.

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 77 and 88.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4408 7002 4404 7003 4396 7019 4414 7033
      4422 7016 4408 7001
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 325DEG 14KT 4414 7021

Kimble

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
335 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

NHZ001-002-232000-
Northern Coos-Southern Coos-
335 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL COOS COUNTY...

At 335 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Dixville, or 8
miles southeast of Colebrook, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Colebrook, Errol, Dixville, Columbia, Dummer and Stark.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4483 7148 4490 7134 4475 7107 4462 7135
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 322DEG 17KT 4482 7136

Kimble

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
341 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

MEZ027-232015-
Knox-
341 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY...

At 341 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles west of
Rockport, or 8 miles west of Camden, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rockland, Camden, Rockport, Thomaston, Hope, Appleton, Union and
Washington.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4427 6935 4432 6922 4417 6902 4407 6926
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 324DEG 11KT 4423 6924

Kimble

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
400 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

MEZ012-020-021-232030-
Southern Oxford-Androscoggin-Kennebec-
400 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL OXFORD AND
NORTHEASTERN ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTIES...

At 400 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Canton, or 12
miles north of Turner, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Turner, Canton, Leeds, Livermore, Buckfield, Hebron, Hartford, Sumner
and Peru.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4445 7045 4450 7029 4429 7007 4421 7040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 336DEG 16KT 4443 7035

MSC