Special Weather Statement, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
545 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west with showers and storms
possible this evening. Some storms could be strong to severe,
especially over northern and western areas. The cold front
gradually pushes east out over the waters late Tuesday, then
high pressure returns for a cooler and quiet end to the week.
The heat and humidity begins to build once again this upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
545PM UPDATE...
Forecast thinking hasn't changed a whole lot. Line of storms
with a few supercells ahead of it will roll into the forecast
area from the west over the next few hours, although it is not
expected to last long after it arrives. Meanwhile, fog has moved
in on the Midcoast and a Dense Fog Advisory will be issued.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
Moderately unstable and well-sheared air mass in place across
the forecast area as of this Monday afternoon. The atmosphere is
ripe for severe thunderstorms. However, timing is an issue
because the best forcing for ascent remains well to our west in
the vicinity of the storms in western NY. This puts into
question what our storm coverage will be over the next 8 hours
or so. For the time being, strongest storms are likely to remain
just north of our border with Canada as well as over upstate NY
and Vermont. Cannot rule out isolated storms through 22z but
the vast majority of the forecast area will remain quiet.

As the evening begins, better lift will enter the forecast area
from the west and should allow a few strong to severe storms to
enter the watch area across northern and western NH. It'll
likely be even later for areas farther south and east. By then,
heating will be done and the boundary layer should begin to
stabilize somewhat. So if the convection currently to our west
doesn't organize greatly and have a well-balanced cold pool with
it, the storms entering the CT River Valley south of the watch
area will likely weaken and eventually dissipate as they
potentially reach central NH. However, a few storms there could
be severe upon entering the forecast area.

For southeastern NH and our Maine zones south of the mountains,
the chances for thunder or much rain for that matter doesn't
look good. Storms should fall apart for the most part before
entering these areas although a few rumbles will be possible b
prior to 06z or so.

To summarize, the best chances for severe weather will be in the
current severe thunderstorm watch area northeastward to the
western ME mountains. The next best chance will be to the south
of the watch area along the CT River. Damaging winds will be the
main threat although heavy downpours and localized flooding will
be possible if and where storms train across western zones. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, fog and/or low clouds will move inland early on this
evening, mainly northeast of Portland and perhaps into portions
of central ME. It could be locally dense on the Midcoast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Tuesday in the wake of a
cold front that should have moved just offshore around 12z. The
question remains how much anafrontal precipitation will occur
during the day? The solutions continue to vary with the 12z
ECMWF leading the pack with a good dose of rainfall Tuesday
afternoon. Did not go that heavy handed at this time and stayed
closer to the GFS solution for now.

Skies clear out Tuesday night as high pressure moves in.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build to our southwest Wednesday
with cooler and much drier air funneling into northern New
England on northwest winds. High pressure will crest over the
area Wednesday night before settling offshore through the end of
the work week. This will bring fair weather, comfortable
humidity levels and temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s
with cooler conditions along the coast Thursday and Friday.
Going into the weekend a long wave trough at 500 mb deepens to
our west as heights rise along the west coast of North America.
This will set up deep southwest flow allowing for temperatures
and humidity to rise Saturday into Sunday. With the increasing
heat and humidity will come the threat for showers and
thunderstorms with the best chances for precipitation holding
off until Sunday.

A cold front will be well offshore Wednesday morning with breezy
northwest winds ushering in cooler and drier air. Downsloping winds
will allow coastal areas to be the warm spot with highs into the mid
70s there to upper 60s across the north. With mostly sunny skies and
dewpoints in the 40s it will be a nice late June day. High
pressure crests over the region Wednesday night. Clear skies
and light winds will maximize what radiational cooling we can
achieve on one of the shortest nights of the year with lows
dropping to near 40F in the north to near 50F across the south.

High pressure shifts offshore Thursday and will maintain fair
weather into Friday. Persistent southerly flow around the western
edge of the high will keep coastal areas cooler than the interior
and will lead to a steady rise in humidity, although dewpoints
will not reach the 60s until Friday night. Heat and humidity
builds Saturday into Sunday as a long wave trough deepens to our
west. A frontal system will become established within the
eastern side of the trough and will slowly advance eastward.
This frontal system looks to remain to our west through the
weekend with Saturday looking to have better chances of being
dry than Sunday. Have steadily increased PoPs from 20-40 percent
Saturday to 40-60 percent Sunday. Ensembles show high
probabilities of PWATs exceeding 1.5 inches and instability
greater than 500 J/kg Sunday afternoon so this looks to be a
time to watch for strong thunderstorms and heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR prevails over the majority of the region this
afternoon with the only exception being a marine fog and/or
stratus bank nipping the coast mainly northeast of PWM. These
lower conditions will move farther inland on the Midcoast this
evening with lowering cigs and vsbys. The question is does PWM
and PSM get into the action. For the time being latest satellite
imagery shows the low clouds remaining just east and northeast
of PWM and much farther away from PSM. Will go conservative on
both of those TAFS. Late this evening and tonight, a cold front
approaches from the west with showers and decaying storms.
On Tuesday, conditions may become MVFR everywhere in light rain
or showers.

Long Term...VFR likely Wednesday through Friday. Increasing
moisture Friday night through the weekend will bring chances for
reduced visibility in overnight fog and scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...South winds will increase this evening ahead of an
approaching cold front which will also elevate seas to 4-6 ft.
A SCA is currently in effect for the outer waters. Gusts up to
30 kts may develop over all waters when a stronger jet moves
overhead later this evening. Winds decrease to below SCA levels
as low pressure enters the Gulf of Maine early Tuesday, but
waves may prolong SCA conditions. Low pressure shifts east
toward the Bay of Fundy by the end of Tuesday with an offshore
wind in its wake.

Long Term...Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA
thresholds as high pressure crosses the waters Wednesday into
Thursday and remains just to the east of the waters into
Saturday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

NEAR TERM UPDATE...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Schroeter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
550 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

MEZ022-024>028-222200-
Interior Waldo-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-
Coastal Waldo-
550 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine and
southwest Maine.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ150>154-222200-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
550 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Locally dense fog is possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>021-023-033-NHZ004-006>015-222200-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Coastal York-
Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Carroll-Southern Carroll-
Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-
Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
550 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire,
central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New
Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible this evening. Some storms could be
strong to severe with damaging winds and hail as the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NHZ001>003-005-222200-
Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Southern Grafton-
550 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
701 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

NHZ002-003-212330-
Northern Grafton-Southern Coos-
701 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL GRAFTON
COUNTY...

At 700 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Lyndonville Village to Wells River
Village. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Littleton, Bethlehem, Lincoln, Haverhill, Franconia, Woodstock,
Lisbon, Bath, Dalton, Benton, Easton, Monroe, Landaff, Lyman and
Sugar Hill.

This includes Interstate 93 between mile markers 116 and 131.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4407 7205 4408 7203 4409 7205 4410 7203
      4411 7206 4413 7203 4419 7206 4424 7205
      4428 7207 4430 7203 4432 7203 4435 7191
      4434 7185 4436 7181 4438 7182 4440 7179
      4440 7174 4443 7168 4401 7177 4404 7208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 245DEG 31KT 4450 7200 4414 7208

DS

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