Small Craft Advisory 81, NWS Gray, ME

536 
WHUS71 KGYX 071949
MWWGYX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
249 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

ANZ151-153-154-072100-
/O.CAN.KGYX.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-211208T0600Z/
Penobscot Bay-Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
249 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and seas gradually subside tonight.

$$

ANZ150-152-080600-
/O.CON.KGYX.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-211208T0600Z/
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out
25 NM-
249 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 3 to 6 ft.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, 
  ME out 25 NM and Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port 
  Clyde, ME out 25 NM.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

578 
WHUS71 KGYX 080324
MWWGYX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
1024 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

ANZ150-152-080430-
/O.CAN.KGYX.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-211208T0600Z/
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out
25 NM-
1024 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...



$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
443 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty west winds this morning diminish today under partly to
mostly cloudy skies as a cooler airmass settles over the region.
A storm system passing well offshore is expected to produce a
light and fluffy snowfall across the coastal plain Wednesday
into that night, with some losers and winners in terms of
snowfall totals. Warm southwest flow returns by the weekend
bringing a significant warming trend and increasing chances for
rain and some mountain snow as a frontal boundary gradually
passes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold air advection will continue through the day behind an
exiting cold front with a cooler day. This will lead to the bulk
of the day seeing steady or falling temps. The exception will
be a few hours during peak heating where clouds are absent
across southern NH and ME. Flow over the western mountains will
support some localized snow showers, with a few spilling over
the crests and into the foothills. This will be focused during
the morning hours where the pressure gradient is still pretty
packed, but become less prominent in the afternoon as this
slackens. Another limiting factor will be decreasing moisture in
the low levels.

Mixing will allow winds to pick up a little amid the advancing
cold air, but low level winds will also be decreasing over the
region, and expect surface winds and gusts to be greatest during
mid morning.

Dry conditions continue tonight as high pressure moves
overhead. The lighter winds behind the arrival of a cooler air
mass make it an enticing night for radiational cooling, however
light return flow around the high will increase overall mid and
upper cloud cover from the day. Regardless, nighttime lows will
dip into the mid to lower 20s, with single digits back in the
mtn valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Passing low pressure outside the Gulf of Maine to bring
light,fluffy snow accums over the region Wed/Wed night.

A series of weak disturbances will be channeled into the
Northeast on Wednesday by an advancing upper trough. An exiting
downstream jet will provide a favorable environment for
cyclogenesis in the open Atlantic as the upper trough begins to
tilt over New England Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The bulk of greater QPF has trended to remain offshore. However
the aforementioned disturbances will combine for more
widespread snow showers to fall across the CWA Wed afternoon. In
the wake of the low and with a upper trough overhead, a
inverted sfc trough could enhance some of this snowfall,
especially along the ME/NH coast.

Of higher confidence is precip type and general duration of the
event. Lesser so is QPF and resultant snow totals. Some medium
range higher res guidance tries to resolve some heavier swaths
of QPF along or just off the coast. This in combination with the
chance for higher snow ratios w/ deep DGZ could result in
localized higher amounts. Will continue ramping up PoPs, but
keep a broad QPF approach before more confidence arrives on snow
ratios and localized higher precip totals.

The low pulls NE late Wed night, with snow tapering to showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm, blocky pattern develops by this weekend as an active
Pacific jet helps to shake up the storm track over the CONUS.
After active troughing through much of this week... a ridge
eventually builds over the eastern CONUS leading to above
average temperatures for the weekend and beyond. The slow
eastward march of a cold front brings clouds and widespread
rains to the region for the weekend but warmth looks to return
fairly quickly for next week.

Starting off Thursday... low pressure pulls away with snow
coming to an end, first along the coast and then in the
mountains as NW-NWerly flow eases and high pressure builds in.
Sunshine allows temperatures to warm into the 30s outside of the
mountains in spite of a cooler airmass settling in overhead. A
dry airmass also mixes in, which leaves plenty of room for
cooling Thursday night especially with high pressure nearly
overhead. Lows are currently forecast to be in the single digits
across the western Maine mountains, teens to low-20s elsewhere.

Looking to the synoptic scale... a strong Pacific jet pushing
into the PACNW amplifies the CONUS wave pattern as a whole,
carving out a longwave trough over the Rockies by Friday. The
plunging trough lifts downwind steering flow northward, which
finally rids New England of persistent cyclonic flow. The
transition from cool troughing to warm ridging is marked by the
passage of a warm front on Friday. This wave is a bit tricky for
a couple reasons; first, cool and dry high pressure in place
could set up a classic cold air dam scenario on Friday with
surface temperatures... especially north and east... lagging
behind warming aloft. Meaning, the transition from snow to rain
could be muddied by a period of mixed precipitation. Second,
this is ultimately conditional since ensembles and even the
deterministics are uncertain on the coverage and occurrence of
precipitation over the region since best forcing may be
displaced north and west... closer to favorable jet dynamics.
Ultimately have a 50/50 chance of precip on Friday, focused
across the north.

Behind this wave, temperatures warm significantly for the
weekend with highs on Saturday mostly in the 50s, pushing 60
degrees in some spots. Ensemble guidance is pointing to
widespread rain shower activity developing across the region in
a broad baroclinic zone comprising the warm sector Saturday,
culminating in the passage of a rainy cold front pushed along by
the long wave trough tracking eastward across the CONUS. Given
strengthening high pressure over the northern Atlantic basin...
it stands to reason that there is uncertainty in how progressive
the trough will be over the weekend. While deterministic models
have the front crossing out to the waters by Sunday morning,
which is reflecting in likely to categorical PoPs over the
region Saturday night ... I'm not sold on the timing, so have
kept low-end PoPs through Sunday night in case the front slows
up. Any cool down from the passing trough will be short lived
with a strong signal for southern ridging to build back up the
East Coast early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR with some gusty west winds this morning,
becoming lighter in the afternoon. A few snow showers will be
possible at HIE in the morning. Clouds thicken tonight, but
remain VFR.

-SN will move over the region through the day Wed with ceilings
 falling MVFR/IFR w/ similar vis restrictions. The lower of
 these may be focused towards coastal TAF sites. NE winds increase
 through the afternoon with gusts close to 15 kt.

Long Term...Flight restrictions lift on Thursday with
diminishing northwest winds. A period of restrictions is
possible as a wave moves across the area on Friday, then more
widespread and prolonged restrictions are expected this weekend
with the gradual passage of a rainy cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gale conditions will slacken this morning, with SCA
likely needed for both waves and winds through the afternoon and
evening. Winds will fall below 25 kt by this afternoon, but wave
heights 6 to 8 feet continue into the evening. High pressure
moves overhead, with low pressure approaching the Gulf of Maine
Wednesday. NE winds increase towards SCA Wed afternoon.

Long Term...High pressure approaches the waters Thursday and
crests the east coast later that evening with diminishing
offshore flow and seas falling below 5 ft. Southerly onshore
flow returns Friday, increasing into the weekend with SCA
conditions likely along with increasing chances for showers.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ150>154.

&&

NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Casey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
342 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

MEZ018>028-NHZ014-080845-
Interior York-Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-
Interior Waldo-Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-
Knox-Coastal Waldo-Coastal Rockingham-
342 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Offshore low pressure is expected to produce light, accumulating
snowfall over the coastal plain Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Locally higher amounts of fluffy accumulations are possible, mostly
along the immediate coast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ007>009-012>014-033-NHZ001>013-015-080845-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior Cumberland Highlands-
Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-
Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-
Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
342 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine, west
central Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire, central New Hampshire,
northern New Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ150>154-080845-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
342 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
615 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

MEZ012-033-NHZ002>004-071130-
Southern Oxford-Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern
Grafton-Southern Coos-Northern Carroll-
615 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

...An area of heavy snow showers will affect southwestern Oxford...
northwestern Cumberland...southeastern Coos...east central Grafton
and northeastern Carroll Counties...

At 612 AM EST...An area of heavy snow showers was 7 miles southeast
of Pinkham Notch, or 13 miles north of Conway...moving southeast at
40 MPH.

Locations impacted include...
Conway, Bridgton, Fryeburg, Waterford, Pinkham Notch, Bartlett,
Harrison, Brownfield, Denmark, Lovell, Jackson, Albany, Chatham,
Hart's Location, Sweden, Stowe, Otisfield, Stoneham, Batchelders
Grant and Livermore.

This also includes...
  Crawford Notch State Park, Wildcat Mountain, Speckled Mountain,
Pleasant Mountain, and Carter Notch.

  * Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a half mile in this
  area of heavy snow showers.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4416 7154 4433 7105 4414 7055 4389 7089
TIME...MOT...LOC 1112Z 303DEG 35KT 4418 7115

Cornwell