Small Craft Advisory 53, NWS Gray, ME

587 
WHUS71 KGYX 272128
MWWGYX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
528 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

ANZ172-174-272230-
/O.CAN.KGYX.SC.Y.0053.210828T0400Z-210828T1200Z/
Waters from Port Clyde ME to Cape Elizabeth ME from 25 to 40 nm-
Waters from Cape Elizabeth ME to Merrimack River MA from 25 to
40 nm-
528 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

ANZ152>154-281130-
/O.CON.KGYX.SC.Y.0053.210828T0400Z-210828T1200Z/
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out
25 NM-Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
528 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 1 to 3 ft expected.

* WHERE...Casco Bay, Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape 
  Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM and Coastal Waters from Cape 
  Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out 25 NM.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

348 
WHUS71 KGYX 280723
MWWGYX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
323 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021

ANZ152-153-280830-
/O.CAN.KGYX.SC.Y.0053.000000T0000Z-210828T1200Z/
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out
25 NM-Casco Bay-
323 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

ANZ154-281200-
/O.CON.KGYX.SC.Y.0053.000000T0000Z-210828T1200Z/
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
323 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 2 to 4 ft.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack 
  River, MA out 25 NM.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

593 
WHUS71 KGYX 281029
MWWGYX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
629 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021

ANZ154-281130-
/O.CAN.KGYX.SC.Y.0053.000000T0000Z-210828T1200Z/
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
629 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1241 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier air will settle into the region today as high
pressure builds into New England behind a departing cold front.
This high will settle over the area on Saturday with
temperatures a bit below normal for late August. A warm front
will begin to lift into the region on Sunday with a few showers
and thunderstorms possible. Temperatures warm substantially on
Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will bring
showers and storms by late Monday with temperatures trending
lower for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM Update...Quick update was made to the ongoing forecast
focusing on temperatures and sky cover. Other than some high
level cirrus and a few fair weather cumulus clouds the majority
of the area is sunny and this should continue through the
remainder of the day as drier air works its way south. Northwest
winds may gust up to around 20-25 mph for a few hours later this
afternoon but otherwise it will be an increasingly nice day to
be outside.

Previously... 930 AM Update... Made some quick
adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints based on the latest
trends in surface observations. The cold front continues to
cross through the area from the north with dewpoints already
well into the 50s across northern areas. These drier conditions
will continue to move south through the remainder of the day but
will likely not reach southern NH until this evening. As a
result, heat indices may approach 90F for a few hours this
afternoon in extreme southern NH but should remain below
advisory criteria. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

Previously...
650am...Just some tweaks to fog coverage this morning. With
high cirrus crossing overhead, valley fog has been somewhat less
dense. This hasn't stopped it from developing in common
locations like Berlin and Plymouth, NH.

Previous Discussion...
Today will be again warm, especially along the coast, but lack
the excessive humidity that was with us midweek.

As the cold front departs the Maine coast, RH values will
continue to tumble with dew points falling into the 40s and 50s
for much of interior Maine and northern NH. Humidity will have a
last stand in southern NH where the front begins to slow as it
enters southern New England. Heat indices here could still push
towards 90 today.

Otherwise, great mixing almost to 800mb will mix down some of
these frontal winds and drier air with breezy conditions
beginning late morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Winds should slacken this evening and overnight, but not as
calm as nights previous. High pressure takes full grip of the
region on Saturday with cooler temperatures in the lower to mid
70s.

It will again be a dry day, however high clouds will move in
over the ridge into the region. Clouds will trend lower into the
evening as the column begins to saturate top down. Guidance has
been keeping a dry layer towards the surface as disturbances
ride over the eastern Great Lakes towards New England, and thus
have lowered chances of precip Sat afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High Impact Weather Potential:

* Cold frontal passage brings some potential for strong/severe
  thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

--Pattern and Implications--

A review of teleconnection indices early this morning reveals a
+EPO/-PNA setup allowing ample Pacific flow to dominate across the
lower 48 with a southwesterly trajectory over the northern tier of
states north of expansive mid level high pressure axis across the
southern half of the country.  This is a warm setup and has
manifested itself as a heat wave in many parts of our area with
Thursday being the third day above 90F.  Changes are in the works as
of this writing with a cold front settling through the forecast
area.  The larger scale trends show the EPO shifting negative as
somewhat of a high over low pattern sets up over the central
Pacific.  This implied deceleration of the central Pacific flow will
also be accompanied by an amplification of the downstream pattern as
the NAO also shifts increasingly negative. Deterministic/
ensemble guidance is in broad agreement with longwave trough
development along both coasts of North America by the second
half of next week. This overall pattern evolution will favor a
long term trend towards cooler temperatures. Before this
however...we'll remain warm /Sun-Tue/ with the most widespread
precipitation chances likely with a cold frontal passage late
Mon/Monday night before we have a cooler / drier trend for the
second half of the week.

--Daily Details--

Saturday Night - Sunday: The long term period opens with high
pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Maine into Nova Scotia
with this high moving south and east through Sunday. A warm
frontal surface aloft bisecting the area Saturday night will
lift east while the surface warm front remains south and west of
the region. The potential exists Saturday night for elevated
convection along the warm front aloft to push south and east
into northern/eastern portions of the forecast area. With
anticipated cloud cover...lows should be a bit warmer than the
night previous...generally in the 50s to around 60 from north to
south. On Sunday...surface warm front lifts north and east into
southern NH/southwest ME. Primary area of forcing looks to
take the form of lift over this boundary as heights rise across
the region. Thus...will continue to carry PoPs in this area
with sufficient elevated instability to include thunder in the
forecast. The setup will likely yield some large temperature
differences across the forecast area with T8s moving back to
+14-15C over southern NH /allowing highs to near 80/...but
cloudy conditions and onshore flow across much of Maine likely
keeping temperatures in the upper 60s to lower/mid 70s.

Monday - Tuesday: Trough centered near James Bay pushes east before
stalling with a cold front north and west of our forecast area
poised to cross the region Monday afternoon / evening.
Antecedent airmass should be plenty warm/moist with guidance
consensus favoring a brief return of dewpoints in the 70s on
Monday with T8s pushing +15-17C which brings the potential for
another run at 90 across southern zones. Mid level flow also
looks robust with the approaching trough with modest mid level
lapse rates. Thus...a conditional severe threat exists
depending on frontal timing and will include mention in the
morning Hazardous Weather Outlook. Front pushes through the
region Monday night and will be south of the region for Tuesday.
Temps aloft will cool...but downslope northwesterly winds and
pattern recognition suggests that it will again be warm /mid 70s
north to lower 80s south/.

Wednesday - Thursday: Longwave trough axis nearby to end the
forecast period with low/mid level heights a bit below normal for
late August, but lower tropospheric temps pretty close to normal.
The setup overall favors a dry/quiet end to the forecast...but we/ll
have to keep an eye on what becomes of TC Ida during this
period...which has some potential to spread moisture towards our
area.  This will depend to some extent on the orientation of the
trough to our north and...of course...the track of Ida.  Will
watch...but the dry scenario is the more likely one at this early
vantage point with temperatures near or just a bit below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR outside of local valley fog at LEB and HIE
early this morning. Winds become breezy late this morning into
the evening with gusts to 15 kt possible. NW winds are expected
inland, with coastal terminals like PSM and PWM seeing a E
seabreeze in the afternoon.

Long Term...

Restrictions possible in showers and embedded thunderstorms Saturday
night into Sunday with the potential for fog development Sunday
night.  On Monday...an approaching cold front will bring the
potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms bringing continued
potential for restrictions.  A return to VFR conditions is likely on
Tuesday after morning valley fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A cold front passes over the waters today. Breezy
winds, but below SCA are expected today. Tonight, NE winds
remain breezy, nearing 20 kts. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Long Term...
Winds and waves are expected to remain below small craft
thresholds Saturday night through Tuesday. There is the
potential for thunderstorms over the waters Monday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Tubbs

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
251 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033-NHZ001>015-280700-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-
Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-
Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-
Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
251 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire,
central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New
Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A cold front will bring the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ150>154-280700-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
251 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.