Coastal Flood Statement 6, NWS Gray, ME

807 
WHUS41 KGYX 090138
CFWGYX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Gray ME
938 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

MEZ023-NHZ014-090945-
/O.CON.KGYX.SU.Y.0005.210909T1100Z-210910T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGYX.CF.S.0006.210909T0400Z-210909T0600Z/
Coastal York-Coastal Rockingham-
938 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY...
...SOME SPLASH-OVER POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Some splash-over is possible tonight around the time of
  high tide after midnight. For the High Surf Advisory, large
  breaking nearshore waves of 4 to 7 feet from Hurricane Larry
  will lead to dangerous rip currents Thursday.

* WHERE...In New Hampshire, Coastal Rockingham County. In Maine, 
  Coastal York County.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT 
  Thursday. For the, until 2 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Some water on low lying roads and property. 
  Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach 
  erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roadways.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Hampton Harbor NH
MLLW Categories - Minor 11.0 ft, Moderate 12.0 ft, Major 13.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 ft, Moderate 2.5 ft, Major 3.5 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/01 AM    10.0        0.5        0.4        4       None    
 09/02 PM    10.1        0.6        0.6        4       None    
 10/02 AM    10.1        0.6        0.6        4       None    
 10/02 PM    10.1        0.6        0.4        5       None    
 11/03 AM     9.5       -0.0        0.2       6-7      None    
 11/03 PM     9.9        0.4        0.2       4-5      None

Seavey Island / Portsmouth NH
MLLW Categories - Minor 11.5 ft, Moderate 12.5 ft, Major 13.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.7 ft, Moderate 3.7 ft, Major 4.7 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/01 AM     9.7        0.9        0.4        5       None    
 09/02 PM     9.8        1.0        0.6        5       None    
 10/02 AM     9.9        1.1        0.6        5       None    
 10/02 PM     9.8        1.0        0.4       5-6      None    
 11/03 AM     9.2        0.4        0.2        7       None    
 11/03 PM     9.5        0.7        0.1       5-6      None

&&

$$

MEZ024>028-090945-
/O.CON.KGYX.SU.Y.0005.210909T1100Z-210910T0000Z/
Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
938 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking nearshore waves of 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal Waldo, Coastal Cumberland, Sagadahoc, Lincoln 
  and Knox Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and 
  localized beach erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

&&

$$

Legro

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1137 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over New England will bring mainly sunny and warm
weather today. A slow moving cold front approaches from the
west tonight with showers expected into Thursday. Fair weather
returns on Friday through much of the weekend as high pressure
slowly cross the area. Hurricane Larry is expected to pass well
offshore Friday with building long period swells impacting the
Gulf of Maine and its beaches with elevated surf, rip currents,
and potential for beach erosion Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM Update...
No additional changes since the 930 AM update except for minor
adjustments in the near term portion of the forecast for this
afternoon. Temperatures will continue to climb through the 70s
and into the 80s in some locations southern New Hampshire and
interior southwest Maine.

Webcams showing long period swells from Hurricane Larry reaching
our beaches late this morning. Will continue to advertise
increased rip risk threat.

930 AM Update...
Will continue to monitor swells from Hurricane Larry as High
Surf Advisories and Coastal Flood Advisories (for splash-over) may
be needed as we head through today and the end of the week. OPC
wave analysis has not changed over the last several hours as
waves were still holding at around 3 feet every 15 seconds near
the coastline. However, waves have increased to 4 feet at Cashes
Ledge and 6 feet at Georges Bank. Will highlight a moderate risk
of rip currents in DSS products this morning.

Made minor adjustments to temperatures, dew points, cloud cover
and winds for the near term portion of the forecast. Mesoscale
model do indicated strong to severe thunderstorms may enter
western New Hampshire this evening. Will continue to highlight
the possibility of strong gusty winds in this region.

700AM Update...
Have only made minor changes to temperature and sky forecasts
to capture latest trends. Valley fog will dissipate over the
next hour or two with a mix of sun and clouds expected this
morning into the afternoon.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
Low pressure south James Bay will slowly advance northeastward
into Quebec through Thursday with attendant cold front tracking
into Upstate NY this evening. Ahead of the cold front a robust
warm air advection regime will set up over New England with 850
temps approaching +15C and dewpoints climbing into the low to
mid 60s south of the mountains. Model soundings suggest
favorable mixing conditions to around 850 mb over New Hampshire
and interior SW Maine leading to highs here in the low to mid
80s with 70s elsewhere. A developing SSW low level jet to 30 kts
will move over Vermont late this morning and into NH and
eventually Maine this afternoon and evening leading to surface
winds gusting 20 to 30 mph this afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the eastern
Great Lakes ahead of the advancing cold front. These showers and
storms will spread eastward through out today, although WAA over the
forecast area will lead to a CAP to develop around 700 to 600 mb
limiting CAPE through this afternoon. For the most part expect
a mostly dry day with a mix of sun and clouds through the
afternoon with increasing cloud from west to east later this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CAMs suggest that as heights start to fall late this afternoon
and over night sufficient CAPE will develop for thunderstorms.
Members of the 00Z HREF are in good agreement that a line of
showers and thunderstorms will approach the CT Valley around 00Z
this evening with this line of thunderstorms weakening as it
slowly advances east across the area tonight. As there will be
strong winds aloft, any thunderstorms that develop across
western New Hampshire will be capable of gusty winds and have
put gusty winds wording in the forecast from 00Z to 04Z with the
expectations that storms will weaken through the first part of
tonight. Overall, the severe threat looks low with the
best convective parameters remaining to our west. Have also
mentioned heavy rain wording during the 00Z to 04Z time frame
as PWATs will be high with the potential for training
convection, although models have trended down in QPF amounts
associated with this line of showers and storms across western
and northern New Hampshire late this evening.

Through the rest of tonight the front will be slow to cross the
area with showers and some thunderstorms expected to spread
into Maine after midnight. The front will be along the ME/NH
border towards day break with a wave of low pressure expected to
form along the boundary.

The wave of low pressure will slowly track along the Maine
coast Thursday bringing a decent soaking rain for areas south
and east of the mountains for much Thursday. Temperatures will
be in the 70s with muggy conditions along the coastal plain with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Between the initial line of
showers and thunderstorms and rain from the wave low pressure
total QPF amounts from tonight through Thursday night range
from 0.75 inches northern and western zones to 1.75 inches along
coastal Maine.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The deeper 500 MB trough that sweeps across the NE CONUS at the end
of the week, will be followed by more zonal flow over the weekend
and into the middle of the next week.  This will bring changeable
conditions with several chances for showers, but no real chances for
significant precip.  Temps will vary with some warmer days, but
should stay near to above normal, likely warmest in the Sun-Wed
timeframe.

Thu night will see precip associated with interaction of front
and Larry as it passes to our east. There are some hints of
possible PRE, but models have been persistent in keeping
heaviest rain to our east. Still, at his point it's close enough
that it bears watching. Either way, it looks like rain will be
shifting out of the CWA late Th night, with NW winds and some
clearing on Friday, particularly with the downslope on the
coastal plain. The upper level trough crossing could produce a
few SHRA in the mtns Fri afternoon, with highs in the upper 60s
N to the low to mid 70s in the S.

At this point, the weekend is looking good with sunny skies and
highs near normal on Saturday as the sfc high builds across the
region, and then shifts to our S and E on Sunday, allowing SW flow
and temps rising into the mid 70s N to low 80s S.  A weak 500 MB
trough passing to our N could bring a few SHRA to the mtns Sunday
afternoon, but overall it will be dry and warm, with partly to
mostly sunny skies.

Sfc ridge builds in early next week beneath the zonal flow aloft.
Models are suggesting a weak ave moving through the zonal sometime
around Monday night, but have only gone with slight chc POPs Mon-Tue
for now, until it gets get pinned down.   This period looks mainly
partly cloudy.  I've kept temps from warming too much Mon-Tue, as
sfc high centers to our N and may bring some weak onshore flow, but
dry, flow, but as that highs shifts further east, winds shift more S-
SW and temps should warm toward mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions expected later this morning through
this evening with increasing southerly winds gusting to 20 kts
this afternoon. Clouds increase and thicken from west to east
this evening through tonight. Cigs will lower to MVFR and then
IFR by Thursday morning with SHRA and TSRA brining visibility
restrictions. MVFR/IFR conditions expected for much of Thursday
in low cigs and RA as a slow moving front crosses the area.

Long Term...IFR conditions Thu night likely to linger on the
coast into early Friday, but could start to improve inland late
Thu night. By midday Friday expect VFR through the weekend, with
the only exception being the potential for valley fog, mainly at
KHIE/KLEB, each night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...
Southerly winds increase today ahead of slow moving cold front
with gusts to 25 to 30 kts expected this afternoon into tonight.
Seas will build to 5 ft along the outer waters this afternoon
and will continue to build through Thursday while winds will
drop below 25 kts by Thursday morning.

Long Term...
Long period swell associated with Larry will persist Thu night
into Saturday with waves of 5-8 feet near shore and as high as
10 ft possible offshore. Waves begin to subside Sat night and
Sunday, falling to 2 to 4 ft with deceasing period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ150>154.

&&

Cannon/Cempa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
943 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

MEZ007-012-NHZ001>009-011-015-091345-
Northern Oxford-Southern Oxford-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-
Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-
Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Cheshire-Western And Central Hillsborough-
943 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maine, New Hampshire,
central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New
Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms this evening could be strong, with gusty
winds and heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Heavy downpours on Thursday could produce isolated ponding of water
in poor drainage areas or localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MEZ008-009-013-014-018>022-033-NHZ010-012-013-091345-
Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Franklin-
Southern Somerset-Interior York-Central Interior Cumberland-
Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-Interior Cumberland Highlands-
Strafford-Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-
943 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, central New
Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Heavy downpours on Thursday or Thursday evening could produce
isolated ponding of water in poor drainage areas or localized flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ023>028-NHZ014-091345-
Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Coastal Rockingham-
943 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine,
southwest Maine and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Building surf from Larry expected along the coast today. Minor
splash-over is possible. There is a moderate rip risk for today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Heavy downpours on Thursday or Thursday evening could produce
isolated ponding of water in poor drainage areas or localized flash
flooding.

Long period swell is expected to build into the Gulf of Maine
starting Thursday, associated with distant Hurricane Larry. High
surf and dangerous rip currents are possible, especially Friday and
Saturday. High astronomical tides are also expected during this time
leading to potential for beach erosion.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ150>154-091345-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
943 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.