Winter Storm Watch 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Habersham County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Yancey County, NC

616 
WWUS42 KGSP 052020
WSWGSP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
320 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE 
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY...

.A frontal system moving along the Southeast coast will lead to 
the development of precipitation over the southern Appalachians 
late Saturday into Sunday. Accumulating snow and sleet will impact
travel from far northeast Georgia, across the southern 
Appalachians, into the northwest North Carolina Piedmont.

NCZ035-056-502-504-506-060400-
/O.EXA.KGSP.WS.A.0005.210206T2300Z-210207T1700Z/
Alexander-Catawba-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, 
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Hickory, Newton, 
St. Stephens, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, 
Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, 
Fero, and Glenwood
320 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and sleet possible. Total snow accumulations 
  of 1 to 4 inches in lower elevations, and 3 to 6 inches on 
  higher ridges.

* WHERE...Alexander and Catawba Counties, along with eastern
  portions of Caldwell, Burke and McDowell Counties.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through noon Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-SCZ001>003-060400-
/O.EXA.KGSP.WS.A.0005.210206T2300Z-210207T1700Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Mountain Rest, 
Walhalla, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, Cleveland, 
and Slater-Marietta
320 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and sleet possible. Total snow accumulations 
  of 1 to 4 inches possible.

* WHERE...In South Carolina, the mountainous northern portions of
  Oconee, Pickens, and Greenville Counties. In Georgia, Rabun and
  Habersham Counties.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through noon Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-060400-
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.A.0005.210206T2300Z-210207T1700Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, 
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, 
Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, 
Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, 
Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Jonas Ridge, 
Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Chimney Rock State Park,
and Saluda
320 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and sleet possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 3 to 6 inches, with higher amounts possible at high
  elevations.

* WHERE...The mountains of western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through noon Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$
Wimberley

376 
WWUS42 KGSP 060237
WSWGSP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
937 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY...

.A low pressure system moving along a frontal system draped over
the Southeast will lead to the development of precipitation over 
the southern Appalachians late Saturday into Sunday. Accumulating 
snow and sleet will impact travel from far northeast Georgia, 
across the southern Appalachians, into the northwest North 
Carolina Piedmont.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-061100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.A.0005.210206T2300Z-210207T1700Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, 
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, 
Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, 
Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, 
Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Jonas Ridge, 
Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Chimney Rock State Park,
and Saluda
937 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and sleet possible. Total snow and sleet 
  accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with higher amounts possible at 
  high elevations.

* WHERE...The mountains of western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ035-056-502-504-506-061100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.A.0005.210206T2300Z-210207T1700Z/
Alexander-Catawba-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, 
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Hickory, Newton, 
St. Stephens, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, 
Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, 
Fero, and Glenwood
937 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and sleet possible. Total snow and sleet 
  accumulations of 1 to 4 inches in lower elevations, and 3 to 6 
  inches on higher ridges.

* WHERE...Catawba, Greater Caldwell, Greater Burke, Eastern
  McDowell, and Alexander Counties.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-SCZ001>003-061100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.A.0005.210206T2300Z-210207T1700Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Mountain Rest, 
Walhalla, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, Cleveland, 
and Slater-Marietta
937 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and sleet possible. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 1 to 4 inches possible.

* WHERE...In South Carolina, Pickens Mountains, Oconee Mountains 
  and Greenville Mountains Counties. In Georgia, Rabun and 
  Habersham Counties.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

HG

116 
WWUS42 KGSP 060858
WSWGSP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
358 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY...

.A low pressure system moving along a frontal system draped over
the Southeast will lead to the development of precipitation over
the southern Appalachians late today into Sunday. Accumulating 
snow and sleet will impact travel from far northeast Georgia, 
across the southern Appalachians, into the northwest North 
Carolina Piedmont.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-061700-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0005.210206T2300Z-210207T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0005.210206T2300Z-210207T1700Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, 
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, 
Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, 
Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, 
Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Jonas Ridge, 
Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Chimney Rock State Park,
and Saluda
358 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches with locally higher amounts, especially at the higher
  elevations.

* WHERE...The mountains of western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel, keep a flashlight, food, and water
in your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National
Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a
message with your observation and the specific location where it
occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather
Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report
using hashtag nwsgsp. 

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. The latest state road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ502-504-506-061700-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0005.210206T2300Z-210207T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0005.210206T2300Z-210207T1700Z/
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Including the cities of Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, 
Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, 
Dysartsville, Fero, and Glenwood
358 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and sleet expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Greater Caldwell, Greater Burke and Eastern McDowell 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel, keep a flashlight, food, and water
in your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National
Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a
message with your observation and the specific location where it
occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather
Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report
using hashtag nwsgsp. 

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. The latest state road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-SCZ001>003-061700-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0005.210206T2300Z-210207T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0005.210206T2300Z-210207T1700Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Mountain Rest, 
Walhalla, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, Cleveland, 
and Slater-Marietta
358 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and sleet expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of up to 4 inches.

* WHERE...In South Carolina, Oconee Mountains, Pickens Mountains 
  and Greenville Mountains Counties. In Georgia, Rabun and 
  Habersham Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel, keep a flashlight, food, and water
in your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National
Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a
message with your observation and the specific location where it
occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather
Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report
using hashtag nwsgsp. 

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. The latest state road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ035-056-061700-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0005.210206T2300Z-210207T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0010.210206T2300Z-210207T1700Z/
Alexander-Catawba-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, 
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Hickory, Newton, 
and St. Stephens
358 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and sleet expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations
  of up to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Alexander and Catawba Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. 

Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National
Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a
message with your observation and the specific location where it
occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather
Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report
using hashtag nwsgsp. 

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. The latest state road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ036-037-068-069-508-510-061700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0010.210206T2300Z-210207T1700Z/
Iredell-Davie-Cleveland-Lincoln-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Including the cities of Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, 
Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Shelby, Kings Mountain, 
Lincolnton, Crouse, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, 
Columbus, and Mill Spring
358 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and sleet expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations
  of up to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of piedmont and western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. 

Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National
Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a
message with your observation and the specific location where it
occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather
Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report
using hashtag nwsgsp. 

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. The latest state road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

CAC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1012 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east of the area today. Dry high pressure
will briefly tonight but with an unsettled pattern returning for the
weekend. Dry high pressure builds back into the area on Monday.
Unsettled weather possible through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 AM Friday: The last of the precip is still moving across
our far SE zones, but should end once the cold front pushes farther
east by late morning. Weak high pressure will build in from the west
during the day and decreasing clouds will lead to peeks of sunshine
for the afternoon and early evening hours. Clouds have already
started breaking down across the western zones where the fropa has
occurred. With low-level CAA filtering in behind the front, expect
winds to pick during the day. This will provide the area with some
gusty winds, especially over the higher terrain, but is expected to
remain at sub-advisory level.

The front may not clear the region by much given that the frontal
boundary may get hung up in deep layer WSW flow as a broad trough
axis persists back over the central CONUS. Nevertheless, a brief
period of dry weather today and tonight to go along with westerly
downslope warming should permit max temps to surge to near or
slightly above climo east of the mountains. Expect min temps to
be near climo Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EST Friday: Guidance coming into better agreement on
the overall pattern for this weekend. A short wave moves toward the
area Saturday and across the area Saturday night. The wave moves
east of the area Sunday with zonal flow developing Sunday night.
This wave induces cyclogenesis near the Gulf Coast along the tail
end of the frontal boundary that moves through the area today.
Moisture increases ahead of this low and moves into the area from
the southwest. Moisture and forcing maximize Saturday evening as
upper divergence moves in along with the short wave and the low
passes by to the south. Have increased PoP to high likely to trend
toward the guidance consensus. Although the pattern is looking more
Miller A, the developing CAD is more in situ type and p-type looks
to be messy more like a Miller B. There will also be a warm nose
moving in from the south. Naturally, partial thicknesses and thermal
profiles differ with each model. The NAM has the strongest warm nose
along with a decent barrier jet keeping a cold nose in place just
above the surface. The GFS takes a little longer for the warm nose
to develop, but it is very deep when it does. Have gone with a
guidance blend for thermal profiles using a Top-Down methodology for
p-types. This shows mainly rain along and south of the I-85
corridor, although sleet or even snow could mix in at onset as often
occurs. Sleet and snow would develop north of there with more sleet
where the warm nose is stronger and snow where it is weaker.
Accumulations will be highly dependent on the warm nose and surface
temps. A slight variation in either would cause significant
differences. For now, show no significant freezing rain. Snow/sleet
accums would be highest across the northern Blue Ridge Escarpment,
with some accums across all the mountains, even in the Upstate and
NE GA. Light accums would also be possible across the NC Foothills
and NW Piedmont. Given the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory, will
hold off on any product issuances for now to avoid confusion. If
these trends continue, then products will be needed.

Precip tapers off quickly Sunday morning as moisture and forcing
move quickly east with the departing low pressure system. A brief
period of light NW flow snow will linger near the TN border, but no
significant additional accums are expected. Dry conditions expected
Sunday night. Highs will be a little below normal Saturday and
Sunday, but possibly near normal outside of the mountains. Lows will
be near normal Saturday night then below normal Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM EST Friday: Guidance still shows a general zonal upper
pattern over our area with a series of weak short waves passing
through the flow. Strong upper lows remain over the Great Lakes or
the Rockies. Big detail differences remain in the guidance surface
patterns and resulting sensible weather over our area. The GFS and
Canadian favor a weaker mid week system while the ECMWF is stronger
and much wetter. Monday looks to be dry before moisture increases
Tuesday or Wednesday. The GFS being weaker has some light, generally
rain, Wednesday. The ECMWF is much wetter, also generally rain, on
Tuesday. There could be a brief period of NW flow snow behind each
of these systems. The GFS is then wetter on Thursday with a weak but
farther north low pressure system. The ECMWF is suppressed and dry.
Again, the GFS is generally rain but possibly changing to snow over
the high elevations at some point Thursday or Thursday night. Have
gone with a guidance blend for PoP but capped it at low chance given
the model differences. Used a guidance blend for temps as well,
which gives near normal temps for Monday, rising above normal
Tuesday, falling toward normal Wednesday, then below normal
Thursday. Of course, this is all subject to change given the
differences and low forecast confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Rain is gradually coming to an end at all
terminal sites as the cold front continues its march over the area.
Expect the rain to completely shut off once the frontal boundary
passes over the area during the mid-morning hours. Cigs have been
teetering between VFR/MVFR, but has recovered to VFR where the
frontal passage has already occurred. Drier air will filter in once
the front makes a full passage and winds will back to the W/NW. CAA
will allow for an uptick in winds during the day, which progged
gusts to enter all TAFs during the afternoon and early evening hours
before subsiding around sunset. VFR conditions will prevail through
the rest of the TAF period after the frontal passage, but
flight restrictions will return fairly quickly later Saturday.

Outlook: Brief drying returns tonight into Saturday, but with high
uncertainty developing regarding restrictions Saturday night through
Monday. There is some chance of a wave and moisture moving east
along the stalled front to our southeast and bringing precipitation
and restrictions back into the area the latter half of weekend. Any
drying early next week may be short-lived as well.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       Med   66%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  98%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  98%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  98%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CAC/JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CAC/JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
702 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510-
SCZ001>003-061215-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
702 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Wintry precipitation is possible Saturday afternoon through early
Sunday morning over the mountains of the Carolinas and northeast
Georgia, as well as the Foothills and Northwest Piedmont of North
Carolina.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-061215-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
702 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.