Winter Storm Watch 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

411 
WWUS42 KGSP 300326
WSWGSP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1026 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

.A strong storm system will push into the Appalachians Saturday
night into Sunday. This combined with cold temperatures will
bring the possibility of a wintry mix of accumulating snow,
sleet, and freezing rain to western North Carolina.

NCZ033-035-036-049-050-053-056-064-065-501>510-300930-
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.A.0003.210131T0300Z-210131T1800Z/
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba-
Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
Eastern Polk-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem, 
Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, 
Statesville, Mooresville, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, 
Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville, Hickory, 
Newton, St. Stephens, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, 
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, 
Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, 
Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, 
Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero,
Glenwood, Chimney Rock State Park, Forest City, Rutherfordton, 
Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, and Mill Spring
1026 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of up to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around
  a tenth of an inch are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina, including the
  northern mountains, Blue Ridge Escarpment, foothills and 
  northwest Piedmont.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Saturday through 1 PM Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. A few power outages
  might result in areas where ice accumulates on trees and power 
  lines.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Windy conditions will be possible across 
  the higher elevations of the Tennessee border counties Sunday 
  morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$
Wimberley

485 
WWUS42 KGSP 300921
WSWGSP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
421 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WINTER STORM EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT 
INTO SUNDAY...

.A strong storm system will push into the region tonight into 
Sunday. This combined with cold temperatures will bring a wintry 
mix of accumulating snow, sleet, and freezing rain to portions of
western North Carolina. A gradual transition to rain is expected
for most areas sometime Sunday morning into the afternoon as 
temperatures rise above freezing.

NCZ033-035-049-050-065-501>507-509-301700-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0003.210131T0300Z-210131T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0003.210131T0100Z-210131T2100Z/
Avery-Alexander-Yancey-Mitchell-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem, 
Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, 
Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, 
Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, 
Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Chimney Rock State Park, and Saluda
421 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, except locally 5 inches across
  the northern mountains and foothills. Ice accumulations of up 
  to a quarter of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of the North Carolina mountains, foothills and
  far northwest Piedmont.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet,
and ice are expected or occurring. Strong winds are also
possible. This will make travel very hazardous or impossible.
Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel, keep a
flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. 

Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National
Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a
message with your observation and the specific location where it
occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather
Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report
using hashtag nwsgsp. 

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. The latest state road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ036-053-056-064-508-510-301700-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0003.210131T0300Z-210131T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0007.210131T0100Z-210131T1700Z/
Iredell-Buncombe-Catawba-Transylvania-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-
Including the cities of Statesville, Mooresville, Asheville, 
Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, 
Little River, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, 
Columbus, and Mill Spring
421 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of 
  an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of piedmont and western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet, or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. 

Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National
Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a
message with your observation and the specific location where it
occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather
Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report
using hashtag nwsgsp. 

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. The latest state road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ037-057-068-069-301700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0007.210131T0100Z-210131T1700Z/
Davie-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Including the cities of Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, 
Advance, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, 
and Crouse
421 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an 
  inch.

* WHERE...Davie, Rowan, Cleveland and Lincoln Counties.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet, or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. 

Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National
Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a
message with your observation and the specific location where it
occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather
Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report
using hashtag nwsgsp. 

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. The latest state road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ051-052-059-063-301700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0007.210131T0100Z-210131T1700Z/
Swain-Haywood-Northern Jackson-Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Waynesville and Tuckasegee
421 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST SUNDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an 
  inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Swain, Haywood, Northern Jackson and Southern Jackson 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet, or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. 

Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National
Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a
message with your observation and the specific location where it
occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather
Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report
using hashtag nwsgsp. 

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. The latest state road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

Munroe

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will continue the dry and cold conditions for
 our region through Saturday.  A moist cold front and associated
precipitation arrives from the west Saturday night into Sunday, with
some wintry precipitation possible once again mainly along and north
of Interstate 40.  Cold high pressure builds in by Tuesday and
continues through Wednesday before another cold front approaches
from the west on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM EST Friday: Clear and cold will continue tonight and
into tomorrow, with surface high pressure building in overhead and
NW flow aloft continuing the CAA. Overnight lows tonight will drop a
handful of degrees below seasonal norms. Meanwhile a sharp upper
trough pushing off the Rockies into the Southern Plains early
tomorrow will induce downstream ridging that pushes over us
tomorrow, but even with the increasing thicknesses and minimal WAA,
this will compete with increasing high cloudiness ahead of the
system which will limit insolation through the day. With that,
afternoon highs will be similar to, if not a degree or so cooler
than, today's. A little slug of vorticity is progged to lift toward
the Southern Appalachians tomorrow afternoon ahead of the upper low,
and attendant moisture/lift with this little slug should bring the
chance of some precip in especially for the mountains Saturday
afternoon. Temperature profiles have cooled somewhat, with both NAM
and GFS soundings at Boone mainly remaining below freezing, so in
areas cold enough to receive wintry precip the surface, have
trended more toward snow with maybe some sleet (rather than sleet
with some freezing rain in the previous forecast), but any
accumulations should be minimal. By the end of the period, the slug
of vorticity will be lifting NE so the pops lift into the NW NC
Piedmont, though cloud cover associated with the deeper moisture
approaching for the short term will continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Friday: Guidance still on track showing a highly
amplified pattern over the CONUS, with a western ridge/eastern
trough configuration setting up by the end of the period. A strong
short wave moves out of the Mid-MS Valley to the Ohio Valley/Great
Lakes by Sunday morning. This system strengthens as it moves into
the Central/Southern Appalachians by Monday morning. The resulting
upper low crosses VA/NC Monday. A strong short wave dives into the
trough over the area Monday night with the trough moving to the
coast during the day Tuesday. The associated low pressure system
moves east Saturday night taking on a Miller B configuration on
Sunday. The dry slot between the OH Valley and coastal low moves in
Sunday afternoon and remains over the area Sunday night. However,
copious low level moisture remains over the area through Monday as a
NW flow precip event sets up. The NW flow and moisture linger Monday
night then slowly taper off Tuesday.

The question, as always, how much cold air will be associated with
this system. The air mass ahead of this system is relatively cold
and a strong in situ CAD does set up by Sunday morning. A strong
warm nose develops with a strong H85 southerly flow, WAA, and
isentropic lift pattern. This is seen in the partial thickness and
forecast soundings. P-type looks to be typical for a Miller B type
system. Precip starts out as snow/sleet as moisture and evaporative
cooling cools profiles to the wet bulb temps. Precip changes over to
freezing rain/rain from south to north as the warm nose kicks in.
Freezing rain/rain will last longest along and near the Blue Ridge
where the cold surface air can hold on the longest. For now, it
looks like the higher combination of p-types will be over the
counties along the Blue Ridge escarpment and east along the I-40
corridor to Iredell County. In general 2 to 4 inches of a snow/sleet
mix will combine with around a tenth of an inch of ice over these
areas. A Winter Storm Watch will be issued for these areas. Expect
lesser amounts of a wintry mix over the rest of the NC mountains and
NC Southern Piedmont north to Rowan and Davie Counties. Expect an
Advisory will be needed for much of this area. It is still uncertain
how much of a mix will fall over the NE GA and Upstate mountains. It
is possible an Advisory will be needed there as well. Can't rule out
a mix at onset south of these areas, but for now, any accumulation
would be very light with precip quickly changing over to rain. Of
course, even a small chance in temps surface or aloft would change
the expected p-types and associated amounts.

Expect all rain for Sunday afternoon as the warm conveyor belt
precip comes to an end. However, the lull in precip will be short
lived, esp across the mtns, as upper low and attendant wrap-around
moisture begins to move across the area. Snow levels will be
plummeting under strong cold advection Sunday night. Northwest flow
showers will develop during this time, with snow first developing
over the higher elevations before snow levels fall to the valley
floors by daybreak Monday. Additional light snow accums will be
likely Sunday night and continue through the day Monday, mainly
above 3000' or so along the TN border. Expect at least an Advisory
will be needed for these snow showers. That said, some showers may
break containment and move out across the foothills and piedmont on
Monday. Whether conditions will be cold enough for snow to mix in is
yet to be determined.

Precip tapers off Monday night with a dry day for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday: Upper low pulls away from the area Wednesday
with an upper ridge moving over for Thursday. An upper low over the
Southern Plains opens up and moves to the Great Lakes on Friday.
Surface high pressure builds in from the west Wednesday and moves
off shore Thursday. A weakening cold front moves in from the west on
Friday. Temps start out near normal Wednesday and rise above normal
by Friday. This keeps the precip moving in with the front as all
rain even if some precip sneaks into the mountains Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period, with high pressure in
place and mainly light/vrb winds, though expect that KCLT should
favor the N side overnight. Ahead of the next system, high clouds
will start filtering in from the west on Saturday, with winds
expected to shift SE by mid- to late-morning.

Outlook: Rain returns by Sunday, possibly starting out as a wintry
mix during the morning hours, focused across the northern
mountains/foothills and perhaps east to the I-40 corridor. A period
of NW flow snow is likely for the mountains into Monday before the
rest of the area dries out.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for NCZ033-035-036-049-050-053-056-064-065-
     501>510.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
718 AM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

NCZ033-035-048>053-058-064-065-501>507-301115-
Avery-Alexander-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-
718 AM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A wintry mix is expected to develop across portions of the mountains,
northern foothills, and northwest Piedmont of North Carolina
Saturday night into Sunday. Significant accumulations of snow, sleet,
and freezing rain will be possible, mainly across the northern
mountains. Precipitation is expected to change to rain in most areas
by Sunday afternoon. As colder air filters back into the area Sunday
night, snow showers are expected to develop across the mountains and
continue into Monday and Monday night. Additional snow accumulations
will be possible during this time, especially in the high elevations
along the Tennessee border.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-059-062-063-068>072-
082-508>510-SCZ001>014-019-301115-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-
Rowan-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
718 AM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane