Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
234 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper ridge with drying high pressure will become dominant over
the region through the weekend. A cold front will combine with a
possible tropical system early next week and linger across the area
through Thursday. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal
through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 239 PM EDT Thursday: Scattered showers and storms continue to
develop across the area along and n/w of I-85, as expected, with
a higher concentration over the mtns. The latest SPC mesoanalysis
casts some doubt on the already low chances of severe weather,
as we only have dCAPE on the order of 500-700 J/kg, which probably
is not adequate to support much in the way of gusty outflows from
storms. Temp trends look ok.

Over the next 24 hours, model guidance continues its latest
trend toward a more inhospitable convective environment as
the Atlantic Subtropical Ridge slowly moves westward toward the
Carolina coast. After storms dissipate this evening, expect another
night of mtn/valley fog that could be locally dense. Temps will
be seasonally mild once again. Some of the guidance shows a weak
mid-level impulse approaching from the SE Friday morning, which has
the outside shot at bringing some light precip into at least the
lower Piedmont, but for now we keep our fcst dry. As for later in
the day, model fcst soundings show the development of a low level
cap overnight that will place a strong limit on the development
of deep convection. The cap is less over in east TN, so a chance
seems reasonable on the TN border, but elsewhere a slight chance
seems generous. Temps will be a few degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 105 PM EDT Thursday...Made lowering adjs to PoPs thru the
short range. The models continue to agree well on a 595 dm subTrop
high becoming established over the southeast CONUS thru the period.
This will inhibit the chance for convec both days with warming mid
levels and downward forcing. Soundings show low column moisture and
LFCs arnd 12 Kft, which will make for low potential of diurnal tstm
development. Thus, even in areas of lowered PoPs, the chance for
thunder has been decreased even more and limited mainly to the higher
terrain. Max temps will have no problem reaching a few degrees abv
normal each day with apparent temps nearing 100 F outside the mtns.
Low temps will also remain a cat or so abv normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...The ext range continues to look more
pessimistic as far as an increased threat from TD9. There is still
time for the track to change as the current system has not yet
displayed a center nor has it been sampled by reconnaissance aircraft.
Yet for now, the latest guidance remains in good agreement with a
landfalling hurricane, possibly major, sometime Sun across srn LA.
The system is then progged to track north and northeast around a
strong subTrop high.

By Tue, the FA could begin feeling the effects of the system with
enhanced trop moisture flux and and dyno lift across the wrn zones.
It's too early for specifics, but suffice to say the arrow is
nudging more in favor of a possible hydro/tor threat Tue into Wed.
The guidance also agrees decently with the system lingering and
combining with an approaching cold front into Thu which could
exacerbate any lingering hydro issues. This will be a storm to watch
over the next few days as impacts could become significant.

Max temps remain a cat or so abv normal Mon, then drop below normal
thru the week with the expected increase of thick cloud cover and
precip. Mins shud remain elevated by a few degrees each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection was developing along the ridgetops
mainly, with some isolated deep convective cells east of the Blue
Ridge, at issuance time. A cu field was also developing with bases
around 035. Only KAVL gets the tempo for TSRA at this time, but
will have to keep a VCSH over the Upstate. Wind should be light
S. The low clouds should dissipate with sunset. More of the same
tonight as with past nights, with a good chance of mtn/valley
fog/low stratus at KAVL bringing conditions down to IFR at least
temporarily. Friday looks quieter than today, with a capping
low level inversion setting up for the afternoon. Fcst soundings
suggest we will be hard pressed to see much convection. Once the
fog mixes out, all sites will be VFR for the rest of the day. Wind
will stay light S.

Outlook: Conditions for storms are unfavorable through the
weekend. Overnight restrictions can be expected in the mountain
river valleys and in any areas that receive heavy rainfall the
previous day. Early next week, we may be affected by another
tropical remnant moving N/NE from the Gulf, but confidence is
very low.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   78%     High  86%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High  91%
KGMU       High  99%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
359 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-SCZ001>003-
270800-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
359 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, the mountains and northern foothills of western North
Carolina, and the mountains of Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across the area this
afternoon and evening. The primary threats with these thunderstorms
will be dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall,
and briefly gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-508-510-SCZ004>014-
019-270800-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
359 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the Piedmont
and southern foothills of western North Carolina, and Upstate South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area
this afternoon and evening. The primary threats with these
thunderstorms will be dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, locally
heavy rainfall, and briefly gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
302 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

NCZ053-065-261930-
Buncombe NC-Henderson NC-
302 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Henderson and south central Buncombe Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 301 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Downtown Asheville, or near Skyland. This storm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Downtown Asheville, East Asheville, Arden, West Asheville, Mills
River, Fletcher, Fairview In Buncombe County, Biltmore Forest, Bent
Creek and Asheville Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3545 8236 3537 8256 3553 8272 3565 8242
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 154DEG 4KT 3548 8250

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ARK