Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
953 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms chances will continue into the
early evening hours. Subsidence aloft associated with a ridge of
high pressure over the south-central CONUS will slowly build
eastward into the Carolinas and Georgia leading to drier conditions
this weekend and early next week. The upper-level pattern will
remain relatively unchanged during this time. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Friday: What little convection took place today has
died off, leaving a field of widely scattered midlevel clouds and
mainly clear skies across the CWA.  Overnight, as dry air continues
to filter in from the north, the upper levels should become dry
enough to support at least patchy fog development.  Although a
few of the models are predicting fog outside the mountains, the
odds seem reduced for much of a reduction in visibility given that
so little rain has fallen and the PBL will be a good amount drier
than anticipated.  Indeed, it may be primarily our mountain sites
at risk of fog in the early morning hours.

Saturday, as a deepning upper low begins to pivot east of the
CWA, heights should hold stable or even begin to rise slightly
by afternoon; thus, synoptic forcing will be weak/nonexistent.
This combined with dry mid/upper levels should severely hinder
convective initiation tomorrow, and so we should see even more
anemic thunder activity Saturday afternoon than we have today.
A few pulse storms may pop up, along with isolated to widely
scattered showers, but for the most part, below-climo convective
activity is in the works.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 2:15 PM EDT Friday: Throughout the short term forecast period,
a ridge of high pressure will build across the south-central CONUS
while a closed low over the Mid-Atlantic interacts with Tropical
Storm Henri out in the western Atlantic. The ridge of high pressure
will gradually build eastward into the CWA this weekend into early
next week. As a result, the closed low will be forced northeast of
the Carolinas, gradually tracking towards New England through early
next week. This ridge of high pressure will lead near normal PWATs
and mainly NW'ly flow this weekend into Monday allowing for much
drier conditions. With no real synoptic forcing in place, daytime
heating will be the driver of diurnal showers and thunderstorms.
However, with limited moisture available across the forecast area,
only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the
short term so capped PoPs to a slight chance to chance. High temps
should be roughly 4 to 8 degrees above Climo Sunday and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday: The eastern periphery of the ridge remains
over the Carolinas and Georgia at the beginning of the extended
forecast period, but retreats back west middle of next week. This
will allow the Bermuda high in the Atlantic to extend over the
southeast CONUS. So the overall synoptic pattern middle of next week
will have the Carolinas and northeast Georgia sandwiched between two
high pressure systems. This will lead to increased moisture and the
continuation of above climo high temps. PWAT values will increase
Tuesday ranging from 1.70 to 2.0 inches. These values are expected
to linger over the CWA through the end of the forecast period.
Tuesday into Wednesday shower and thunderstorm chances increase due
to a surface trough draped over the central Carolinas. This sfc
trough should remain over the Carolinas throughout the extended.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show the two ridges of high pressure working
together to bring a tropical wave into the Carolinas Thursday into
Friday. This would further increase shower and thunderstorm chances
middle to end of the workweek. Confidence on the track of this
tropical wave remains fairly low as this occurs towards the end of
the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsehwere: The isolated convection over our CWA earlier
this evening has died off, leaving behind VFR conditions across
the board.  Should see scattered to broken sky cover overnight,
with a lingering chance of some morning fog at mountain sites.
Given that none of our sites have received rain, chances seem
somewhat reduced, but the signal is still present in the MOS
products, and mid levels are trending dryer, so have kept mention
of some MVFR VSBYs at KHKY dropping to IFR at KAVL.  Otherwise,
a chance for isolated to widely scattered convection tomorrow,
with initiation time delayed and intensity hindered by dry air
aloft.  For now, have only thrown in PROB30s for SHRA at each
site mid-afternoon.

Outlook: A typical, diurnal summertime convective pattern is
expected to prevail the rest of the weekend and into early next
week, with coverage scattered at best. Mountain valley fog will
be possible each morning, especially for sites that received rain
the previous afternoon.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AP
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...MPR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1132 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-220345-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
1132 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected into the early
overnight hours. The main threat from any thunderstorm will be
cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-SCZ001>014-
019-220345-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
1132 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
721 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

NCZ056-068-069-504-202345-
Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-Greater Burke NC-Catawba NC-
721 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Catawba, western Lincoln, northwestern Cleveland and southeastern
Burke Counties through 745 PM EDT...

At 721 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Morganton, or 5 miles east of South Mountains
State Park, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Belwood, Lawndale, Fallston, Polkville, Casar, South Mountains State
Park, Pleasant Grove, Cooksville and Vale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3542 8136 3542 8145 3541 8145 3539 8169
      3564 8168 3566 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 352DEG 9KT 3558 8156

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
744 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

NCZ068-069-210015-
Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-
744 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Lincoln and
central Cleveland Counties through 815 PM EDT...

At 744 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles north of Shelby, or near Casar, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Belwood, Lawndale, Fallston, Polkville, Lattimore, Waco, Casar and
Kingstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 8158 3556 8157 3557 8153 3557 8145
      3542 8140 3542 8145 3536 8141 3534 8137
      3531 8170 3557 8168 3556 8164 3557 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 353DEG 10KT 3551 8156

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
841 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

NCZ504-506-210115-
Greater Burke NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
841 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
McDowell and southwestern Burke Counties through 915 PM EDT...

At 841 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Marion, or near Lake James State Park, moving south at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marion, Morganton, Glen Alpine, Lake James State Park, Lake James,
South Mountains State Park, Nebo, Glenwood, Fero and Dysartsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 8167 3558 8169 3558 8170 3561 8172
      3560 8174 3561 8176 3559 8177 3559 8179
      3558 8180 3558 8182 3554 8185 3552 8197
      3554 8199 3573 8200 3580 8189 3583 8179
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 348DEG 11KT 3571 8188

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RWH

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