Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
232 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will become established off the Southeast coast
to start the work week. This will result in a typical summertime
pattern across the region through the week.  With the increase in
moisture in the middle of the week, we can also expect scattered
mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 223 PM: Satellite/radar imagery shows convection along some of
the ridgetops at this hour, just as predicted. Sfc-based CAPE will
be limited to maybe 1000 J/kg, which ought to keep any convection
in check this afternoon. Any convection should diminish rapidly
with sunset. Temp/dewpt trends look good.

Should be a quiet night with upper/sfc ridging in place. Clearing
sky and light/variable or calm wind should provide for favorable
conditions to develop mtn valley fog/low stratus. Expect some
patches of dense fog before daybreak. On Monday, high pressure
moves off the East Coast, and the weak return flow should allow
moisture to creep back up enough to allow for more instability in
the afternoon. Convection will be more favored, but coverage will
barely make it back to climatological normal, meaning no better
than widely scattered outside the mtns. Temps will probably be a
degree or two warmer than today. The next system approaching from
the west should hold off until after sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday...Shortwave upper ridging continues to track
northeast of the FA to begin the period as an h5 trof crosses the OH
Valley and swings a weak cold front into the NC mtns by Tue
afternoon. This front will continue to weaken as a broad 594 dm
subTrop high builds east over the southeastern states. Deep
convection will continue be limited, however, across the higher
terrain and where the sfc bndry provides a measure of moisture
convg, expect coverage of diurnally generated storms to become more
than scattered or a abv climo both Tue and Wed afternoons. Still not
expecting much more than pulse storms, with perhaps outflow driven
multi-cells along the sfc bndry. A few storms may become quite
strong and with increasing PWAT values Tue night into Wed, there
remains a chance of localized minor hydro issues due to slow moving
storms capable of producing high precip rates. Max and min temps
will remain near or a bit abv seasonal levels each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Sunday...Only made minor adjustments to the ext
range fcst. The op models continue to agree well and show good run
to run continuity with the expected pattern. A look at the EPS,
GEFS, and CMCE ensembles also show little spread (generally less
than 3 dm) within the h5 pattern across the southeast region. So,
still anticipate strong subTrop ridging to dominate the pattern,
while a weak frontal bndry remains trapped across the western
Carolinas early on to produce abv climo PoPs across the mtns and
foothills, before another weak bndry moves in Sat associated with a
deepening yet broad upper trof. This setup will maintain a little
higher than normal convec coverage across the higher terrain due to
weak mech lift and peak heating ridgetop convrg. The flow remains
weak thru the column, so continued pulse to multi-cell storms are
most probable. Also, the column remains highly moist thru at Fri
before drier air abv h5 mixes in. So expect the threat of isol minor
hydro issues to continue each afternoon into Fri. With good
subsidence and an unchanging airmass, temps will remain arnd or a
cat abv normal thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Showers developing on the ridgetops should
remain confined to the higher terrain, and thus away from KAVL. All
terminals should stay VFR through the evening hours with only
a few high based stratocu. Wind will become light S or SW. Weak
high pressure, clear sky, and light/variable/calm wind late tonight
should allow for fog/low stratus to form in the mtn valleys. Expect
KAVL to become at least MVFR, with a very good chance of LIFR/VLIFR
in the pre-dawn hours. Other terminals are most likely to remain
VFR. Monday should be prevailing VFR with a slightly better chance
of showers, but still over the mtns/foothills mainly. Wind will
be light SW.

Outlook: Diurnal shower/thunderstorm activity will be more prevalent
for most of the upcoming week. Fog and low stratus will be possible
each morning, particularly over the mtn valleys and areas primed
by any rainfall from the previous evening.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  86%     High  87%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High  91%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1039 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-
091445-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Avery-Alexander-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-
Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
1039 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop across the mountains
and adjacent foothills of the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia this afternoon. The main threats will be cloud-to-ground
lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-091445-
Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
1039 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 PM EDT SUN AUG 08 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 WSW DILLARD           34.95N 83.50W
08/07/2021                   RABUN              GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ON
            DAROM LN.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
449 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

NCZ082-082115-
Union NC-
449 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Union
County through 515 PM EDT...

At 448 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Monroe, or near Wingate, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Monroe, Wingate, Marshville, Sturdivants and Unionville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 8050 3497 8053 3508 8053 3513 8029
      3488 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 261DEG 7KT 3499 8043

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPT