Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
905 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A Bermuda high will maintain seasonably hot and humid conditions,
with afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms, through the
remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 905 PM EDT Monday: Better convective coverage on outflows and
Atlantic moisture arriving from the south will require a boost to
likely PoPs or better for the southern half of the forecast area for
the rest of the evening hours. Anticipate instability slowly
weakening by midnight, and this should permit the bulk of the
coverage east of the mountains to diminish to showers, with the best
remaining coverage overnight in the southern mountains in southerly
upslope. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall remain the primary
threats. The moisture will bring stratus to the region overnight,
which could preclude any large areas of fog - except in the mountain
valleys. Mins will be near climo overnight.

On Tuesday, the Southeast will remain situated between the
persistent subtropical upper ridge to our east and a slowly phasing
upper trough to our west. The trough will gradually phase northward
from the mid MS River Valley across the lower OH River Valley by
late day. At the sfc, warm and moist SLY flow will persist over the
region, with PWs in excess of 1.75 inches. Mid/upper level forcing
will remain weak, however the low-level SLY to SWLY flow should
provide some support for convective development again during the
afternoon hours, especially across the the higher terrain. Severe
potential once again appears minimal, with slightly better potential
over the higher terrain. Overall, heavy rainfall/flash flooding
appears to be the bigger threat. Temps will remain at or slightly
above normal for mid-July.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 pm Monday: The westerlies will be rather active across the
northern half of the country during the short term, with periodic
height falls allowing the weakening/suppression of the subtropical
anticyclone off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The latter feature will
evolve into an elongated ridge that cover much of the Southeast
through the period and into at least the early part of the medium
range, while the center of the weakening anticyclone may move into
the Carolina coast by the end of the period. That being the case,
probabilities for diurnal convection are expected to revert to
around normal (primarily 40-50% mountains to 30% Piedmont) by
Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak flow aloft will yield the usual
mid-summer convective threats: possibly a pulse severe storm or two
along with perhaps a highly localized excessive rainfall threat due
to slow-moving and/or anchoring cells. Temps are forecast to average
right around normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 pm Monday: Global models are converging toward a consensus
solution in allowing the subtropical ridge to become suppressed
south of the Conus by early next week, in response to periodic
height expected to impact the northern half of the country
throughout this week. In fact, there is a strong consensus in
anomalously low upper heights covering much of the eastern third of
the country by Day 7. It therefore appears increasingly likely that
a frontal zone will sag toward into the forecast area during the
Sunday/Monday time frame and enhance convective chances. Above climo
PoPs (with a strong, but not exclusively diurnal bent)...generally
50-70%...are advertised both days. While temps will be around normal
through much of the period, slightly below climo conditions are
advertised for next Monday in anticipation of lower heights along
with the likelihood of enhanced cloud cover and convective coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Attention has turned to the line of showers
and thunderstorms arriving from the south on Atlantic moisture and
residual outflows. This activity should weaken as it moves
northward, but a TEMPO TSRA could well be needed at KCLT and across
the Upstate TAF sites. As coverage dwindles later this evening and
overnight, the next concern will be the potential for IFR to MVFR
stratus to spread into the area. Some sources, such as the RAP,
produce fairly widespread IFR cigs throughout the area before
daybreak, while other solutions have SCT MVFR bases. Will compromise
with mainly upper IFR range cigs in western TAF sites and MVFR from
KGSP to KCLT. Any IFR fog issues will be confined to the mountain
river valleys, with stratus preferred on light southerly mixing
elsewhere. Anticipate slow recovery through the MVFR range Tuesday
morning, with lower end VFR cigs with heating through the day. Will
feature PROB30 TSRA for the afternoon hours throughout. Expect S/SW
flow at 10 kt or less with mixing, but with low end afternoon gusts
in the upper teens possible at times.

Outlook: An unsettled pattern, with morning fog/stratus restrictions
followed by afternoon/evening storms, will persist through the
rest of the work week and likely into the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  95%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  98%     High  85%     High  92%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     Low   43%     Low   47%     High 100%
KHKY       High  98%     High  87%     High  91%     High 100%
KGMU       High  99%     Med   73%     High  81%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  80%     High  82%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
858 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>058-501>506-140100-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
858 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ059-062>065-068>072-082-507>510-
SCZ001>014-019-140100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
858 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will track in from the south tonight. Frequent
cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy downpours are the main threats
with these storms. Localized flooding is possible where storms
persist. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1044 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

SCZ009-014-130315-
York SC-Chester SC-
1044 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTH
CENTRAL CHESTER AND WESTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM EDT...

At 1044 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 9 miles southwest of York, or 4 miles west of
Mcconnells, moving north at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
York, Sharon, Hickory Grove, Mcconnells, Lowrys, Smyrna, Clover,
Kings Mountain State Park, Bullock Creek and Bethany.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3478 8120 3480 8142 3505 8143 3505 8141
      3512 8140 3509 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 186DEG 17KT 3487 8130

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1049 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE ANDERSON           34.47N 82.59W
07/12/2021                   ANDERSON           SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED TREES DOWN ON GILMER RD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1057 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E GREENVILLE          34.84N 82.33W
07/12/2021                   GREENVILLE         SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED TREES DOWN ON WOODRUFF RD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1057 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E GREENVILLE          34.84N 82.33W
07/12/2021                   GREENVILLE         SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED TREES DOWN ON WOODRUFF RD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1059 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

NCZ065-508>510-SCZ003-007-008-130330-
Greater Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
Cherokee SC-Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-
1059 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...
CENTRAL HENDERSON...POLK...NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...NORTHWESTERN
SPARTANBURG AND NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM EDT...

At 1059 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 8 miles southwest of Hendersonville to 4 miles
northwest of Spartanburg, and moving northeast at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hendersonville, Columbus, Boiling Springs SC, Flat Rock, Landrum,
Mountain Home, Laurel Park, Inman, Mayo and Tryon.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3520 8176 3518 8177 3518 8170 3494 8198
      3504 8222 3506 8222 3505 8226 3518 8260
      3525 8260 3545 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0259Z 212DEG 36KT 3522 8255 3501 8196

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1120 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

NCZ053-065-068-504>510-130400-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-
Greater Burke NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
1120 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MCDOWELL...RUTHERFORD...
NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...NORTHERN POLK...SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE...
WESTERN CLEVELAND AND SOUTHERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

At 1120 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 10 miles northeast of Hendersonville to 8 miles
southeast of Forest City, and moving northeast at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Forest City, Marion, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Boiling Springs NC,
Belwood, Lake Lure, Old Fort, Lawndale and Polkville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 8147 3557 8153 3555 8151 3552 8151
      3546 8148 3518 8171 3542 8248 3573 8222
      3574 8219 3580 8215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 223DEG 35KT 3545 8235 3526 8174

HG