Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
252 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A Bermuda high will maintain seasonably hot and humid conditions
with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through at
least the end of this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Sunday: We're currently seeing decent convective
coverage over the NC mtns and far NE Georgia, but very little over
the rest of the CWA. Still expect coverage to gradually expand to
the east, but it may be isolated to sct at best.

Otherwise, the upper pattern evolves thru the near-term period in
a way that should enhanced diurnal shower/tstm coverage for the next
several days. An upper low setting up over the central Plains/mid MS
River basin and the Atlantic subtropical high will slowly increase
the moist SWLY flow from the Gulf of Mexico. For the remainder of
today/tonight however, the guidance continues to show little in the
way of mid to upper lvl support for convection, so any low-level
forcing will have to do the trick. PoPs remain above climo, just
not with storms as numerous east of the mtns as previously expected.
As for severe potential, fcst soundings are not as favorable-looking
with poorer lapse rates and buoyancy compared to yesterday. Thus,
our chances appear relatively low away from locations near the TN
border where stronger storms developing to the west might reach our
CWA. Any storm could produce heavy rain owing to the fairly high
PW values, so localized flash flooding remains a threat. Temps will
remain near or slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 pm Sunday: Blocking pattern dominating the Conus will
gradually break down during the short term, as a series of height
falls impacting the northeast quadrant of the country weakens and
suppresses the anticyclone off the Mid-Atlantic coast. In terms of
the sensible weather, this will not have much of a noticeable impact
on our area, with typical early/mid-summer weather marked by
near-normal temps and daily diurnal convection expected to continue.
Weak easterly wave undercutting the anticyclone may impact the
forecast area on Tuesday afternoon/evening, perhaps slightly
enhancing convective chances, but will otherwise pass with little
fanfare. Chances for severe weather or excessive rainfall will be
typical for the time of year: a pulse severe storm or two possible
each day, with highly localized flash flooding possible in
association with slow-moving cells and/or backbuilding
multicells.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 pm Sunday: The axis of a subtropical ridge is forecast  to
overlay the Southeast through the medium range, yielding a
continuation of typical summer weather, with around normal temps and
around normal PoPs for diurnal convection continuing through the
work week. There remains enough of a global model guidance signal
advertising suppression of the ridge and attendant approach of a
frontal zone to warrant an increase to above-climo PoPs next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Expect another afternoon/evening of sct
to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the fcst area with
restrictions possible under any cells. This is handled with a
VCTS at KGSP, KGMU, KAND, KHKY, and a TEMPO for TSRA at KAVL
for the first 4 hours of the period as convective coverage will
likely be greater around KAVL. For the time being I left out any
mention of thunder at KCLT, as most of the latest guidance has
the least amount of convective development over the southern NC
Piedmont this aftn/evening. Some guidance still indicates that
convection may persist well into the evening over northeast GA
and Upstate SC owing to the low-lvl SWLY flow, but confidence
remains low overall. Any locations that get rain today will
have a good chance of fog/low stratus restrictions overnight
and into tomorrow morning, with KAVL being the most likely to
see restrictions. Otherwise, winds will remain SLY to SWLY thru
the taf period with a few low-end gusts possible this afternoon/
evening.

Outlook: An unsettled pattern, with diurnal convection and morning
fog/stratus restrictions, is expected to persist thru much of the
upcoming week.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  94%     Med   62%     High  98%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  92%     High  92%
KGMU       High  98%     High 100%     High  84%     High 100%
KAND       High  98%     High 100%     High  93%     Med   75%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
511 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-120915-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
511 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop again this afternoon and
evening across the area. Storms should be numerous across the
mountains, the western part of the Upstate, and northeast Georgia.
Scattered storms are expected over the foothills and Piedmont of the
Carolinas. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy downpours
are the main threats. One or two of the storms could become strong
enough to produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. Localized
flooding could happen where storms persist for more than an hour. The
thunderstorms should diminish by late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
335 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

NCZ053-065-505-507-112000-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Henderson NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-
335 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...WESTERN
RUTHERFORD...NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 334 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Downtown Asheville, or near Fairview In Buncombe
County. This storm was nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Black Mountain, Swannanoa, Fairview In Buncombe County, Chimney Rock
Village, Chimney Rock State Park, Bat Cave, Lake Lure, Old Fort,
Gerton and Edneyville.

Wind gusts up to 35 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 8223 3540 8225 3536 8228 3544 8245
      3562 8240 3562 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 283DEG 2KT 3552 8235

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
430 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

SCZ001-112100-
Oconee Mountains SC-
430 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN OCONEE COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM EDT...

At 429 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Walhalla, or near Oconee State Park, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Walhalla, Salem, Devils Fork State Park, Oconee State Park, Lake
Jocassee, Lake Keowee, Mountain Rest and Bad Creek.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 8325 3488 8323 3488 8321 3489 8320
      3492 8316 3493 8316 3493 8311 3495 8313
      3497 8312 3502 8306 3504 8295 3501 8291
      3501 8293 3499 8294 3495 8291 3482 8290
      3471 8313 3485 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 233DEG 18KT 3483 8312

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
441 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

NCZ071-112115-
Mecklenburg NC-
441 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM EDT...

At 441 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Uptown Charlotte, or near Northwest Charlotte, moving northeast at 20
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Huntersville, Central Charlotte, Northeast
Charlotte, Northwest Charlotte, University City, Charlotte Douglas
Airport, Paw Creek, Hidden Valley and The Plaza.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3517 8089 3522 8098 3542 8089 3530 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 217DEG 16KT 3526 8090

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
446 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

NCZ505>508-112115-
McDowell Mountains NC-Greater Rutherford NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-
446 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND NORTH
CENTRAL RUTHERFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 446 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Rutherfordton, or 9 miles east of Lake Lure,
moving east at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Shingle Hollow, Sugar Hill, Thermal City, Fero, Union Mills, Green
Hill, Dysartsville and Glenwood.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3542 8213 3557 8214 3562 8188 3539 8187
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 267DEG 10KT 3549 8205

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
449 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

NCZ053-065-505-507>509-112115-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Greater Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-
Polk Mountains NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
449 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD...NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN
BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 449 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles north of Columbus, or over Chimney Rock Village. This storm was
nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lake Lure, Chimney Rock Village, Chimney Rock State Park and Bat
Cave.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 8212 3537 8210 3537 8211 3538 8211
      3541 8216 3541 8217 3540 8218 3540 8219
      3537 8222 3538 8234 3558 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 286DEG 3KT 3545 8226

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
513 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

GAZ028-SCZ010-112145-
Hart GA-Anderson SC-
513 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HART AND
SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 513 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Hartwell, or 6 miles west of Starr, moving northeast at
20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Homeland Park, Northlake, Reed Creek, Starr, Anderson
Airport, Lake Hartwell, Broadway Lake and Sadlers Creek State Park.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3444 8293 3461 8261 3438 8248 3436 8250
      3428 8283
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 244DEG 17KT 3439 8280

ARK