Alert archive / North Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2021
Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this special weather statement at Jul 10, 2021, 5:52 PM EDT for McDowell County, North Carolina. It was in force for 23 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 10, 2021, 5:52 PM EDT (21:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 10, 2021, 6:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 23 min
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
County McDowell County, NC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 222 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1508 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -62 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -26 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
499 WWUS82 KGSP 102152 SPSGSP Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 552 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 NCZ049-053-505-102215- Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC- 552 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL... NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT... At 552 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14 miles northeast of Downtown Asheville, or 4 miles north of Black Mountain. This storm was nearly stationary. Locations to be impacted include... Black Mountain, B.R. Parkway-Craggy To Little Switzerland, Old Fort, Mount Mitchell State Park, B.R. Parkway-East Asheville To Craggy Gardens, Montreat and Busick. Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek higher ground if threatened by flood waters. && LAT...LON 3563 8241 3575 8238 3577 8214 3557 8221 TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 289DEG 2KT 3568 8232 $$ ARK
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 10, 2:55 PM EDT, 2 hours 57 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 2:55 PM EDT, 2 hours 57 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
255 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A Bermuda high will maintain seasonably hot and humid conditions
with above normal coverage of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through at least the middle part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Saturday: Convective coverage has been slow to
move eastward over the past few hours and at present we're only
seeing activity over our far western zones. With the weak front
still hung up across the middle of the fcst area, the latest
guidance remains unclear whether or not the front will actually
make any more progress before it washes out.
Otherwise, the rest of this aftn/evening should be less active
compared to yesterday, largely due to a lack of mid/upper-lvl
support. However, if the front does not make it far enough south
of the fcst area, the slight increase in low-lvl forcing might
be enough to offset the lack of mid/upper-lvl support, at least
over the higher terrain. Overall, the last few runs of the CAMs
have trended slower moving convection eastward and most suggest
that little activity will make it to the I-77 corridor. As for
the severe potential, it's looking less likely that any cells
will produce larger hail and/or strong downbursts, but I wouldn't
completely nix the possibility. The higher terrain still remains
under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall today/tonight. After
the activity winds down later this evening, the overnight hours
should be quiet, with another round of patchy fog likely over the
mtn valleys and possibly the Upstate and Piedmont, depending on
where the precipitation falls. Another round of diurnally-driven
convection is likely for Sunday aftn/evening with better coverage
expected across the CWA. The severe potential still appears muted
overall, however it does look better just to our west over TN.
Temps will remain a degree or 2 above climatology.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 pm Saturday: A blocking pattern will predominate over much
of the Conus through the short term, with anticyclones centered off
the NC coast and the Desert Southwest, and a trough along the
Mississippi Valley. Resultant deep southerly flow over our forecast
area will result in seasonably warm/muggy conditions and robust
instability Monday and Tuesday afternoons. As such, solid coverage
(i.e., above-climo levels) of diurnal convection is anticipated both
days, with PoPs generally favoring likely across the mountains and
foothills and solid chance across the Piedmont. Mid/upper
tropospheric flow between the trough and anticyclone will be a
little stronger than usual for the time of year, so chances for
storm clustering along with the magnitude of coverage that is
anticipated may yield a severe storm risk that's a bit higher than
usual for early/mid summer. Localized excessive rainfall will also
be possible with training cells and/or backbuilding multicells.
Temps will be right around normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 pm Saturday: Blocking pattern is forecast to steadily
relent during the middle-to-latter part of the week, as a series of
short wave troughs passing through the northeast quadrant of the
country are expected to weaken the anticyclone just off the NC
coast. As a result, deep layer flow will weaken and moisture not
quite as deep/abundant. Diurnal convective coverage is expected to
become a little more typical for the time of year, with usual
threats of a pulse severe storm or two and locally excessive
rainfall from slow-moving cells. By next weekend, there's enough of
a signal in global model guidance to increase PoPs above climo again
as a frontal boundary could begin sagging toward the region. Temps
are forecast to remain very close to normal.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: In spite of a weak boundary drifting south
and washing out across the area today, winds should mainly be light
and SLY to SWLY. The only exception will be KAVL, where winds will
favor a NWLY direction. The coverage of convective storms remains
questionable for the remainder of today, but should be less than
yesterday. Nonetheless, I kept TEMPOs for TSRA from roughly 20 to
24z for all taf sites based on the most recent CAM guidance. Overall,
confidence remains somewhat lower that convection will reach KCLT,
but opted to keep a TEMPO going for them per the CWSU. Convective
debris this evening will gradually dissipate and winds will go light
and vrb again overnight. Patchy fog will likely develop again during
the pre-dawn hours on Sunday and linger into mid to late morning.
Another round of diurnally-driven convection is expected for Sunday
aftn/evening with better coverage expected across the fcst area.
Outlook: An unsettled pattern, with diurnal convection and morning
stratus/fog restrictions, is expected to persist thru the weekend and
into early next week.
Confidence Table...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 95% Med 76% High 96%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 96%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 98%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JPTHazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 7:04 AM EDT, 10 hours 48 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 704 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-111115- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander- Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba- Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania- Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains- Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains- Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee- Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York- Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood- 704 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region this afternoon. One or two of the thunderstorms will be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail possible. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours will also accompany any storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 3:48 PM EDT, 2 hours 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 348 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 GAZ010-SCZ001-102015- Rabun GA-Oconee Mountains SC- 348 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RABUN AND WEST CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT... At 348 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5 miles southeast of Clayton, moving southeast at 15 mph. Locations to be impacted include... Clayton, Lakemont, Oconee State Park, Tallulah Gorge State Park, Tallulah Falls, Lake Rabun, Mountain Rest and Long Creek. Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors. Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek higher ground if threatened by flood waters. && LAT...LON 3478 8345 3494 8336 3487 8303 3463 8317 TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 294DEG 12KT 3484 8332 ARK
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 4:29 PM EDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
429 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021
NCZ048-052-053-065-102100-
Buncombe NC-Haywood NC-Henderson NC-Madison NC-
429 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MADISON...NORTHEASTERN
HAYWOOD AND WESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...
At 429 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles northwest of Marshall to 7 miles east of
Waynesville, and moving southeast at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Waynesville, Marshall, Canton, Lake Junaluska, Clyde, Hot Springs,
Leicester, Mount Pisgah, Enka and Mars Hill.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3590 8253 3538 8270 3542 8274 3541 8275
3539 8278 3546 8303 3594 8284 3592 8282
3594 8280
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 297DEG 18KT 3585 8273 3547 8287
ARKSpecial weather statement, Jul 10, 4:55 PM EDT, 57 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
455 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021
GAZ029-102130-
Elbert GA-
455 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ELBERT COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...
At 455 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northwest of Elberton, or 5 miles southeast of Bowman, moving
southeast at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Elberton, Nancy Hart State Park, Middleton, Russell State Park, Lake
Russell, Dewy Rose, Fortsonia, Sweet City and Ruckersville.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3399 8283 3398 8286 3401 8291 3401 8294
3403 8294 3405 8299 3410 8304 3411 8303
3413 8305 3422 8300 3421 8298 3424 8293
3418 8273 3415 8272 3413 8268 3410 8266
3398 8274 3397 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 297DEG 17KT 3414 8296
ARKSpecial weather statement, Jul 10, 5:14 PM EDT, 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 514 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 NCZ052-053-064-065-102145- Buncombe NC-Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Henderson NC- 514 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA... NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD AND SOUTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT... At 513 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13 miles southwest of Downtown Asheville, or near B.R. Parkway-Mount Pisgah To The Nc Arboretum, moving southeast at 15 mph. Locations to be impacted include... Arden, Mills River, Fletcher, Etowah, Mountain Home, Bent Creek, B.R. Parkway-Mount Pisgah To The Nc Arboretum, Asheville Airport, Mount Pisgah and Skyland. Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors. && LAT...LON 3539 8283 3556 8274 3548 8242 3524 8255 TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 294DEG 12KT 3545 8271 ARK
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 5:30 PM EDT, 22 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
530 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021
NCZ033-049-050-102200-
Yancey NC-Avery NC-Mitchell NC-
530 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MITCHELL...SOUTHWESTERN
AVERY AND NORTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...
At 530 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Burnsville, or 4 miles west of Bakersville, moving
east at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Bakersville, Green Mountain, Buladean and Bandana.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3613 8202 3593 8204 3599 8232 3611 8230
3612 8214 3611 8213 3611 8210 3610 8208
3611 8206 3613 8205 3612 8203
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 275DEG 12KT 3603 8223
ARKSpecial weather statement, Jul 10, 5:52 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 552 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 NCZ049-053-505-102215- Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC- 552 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL... NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT... At 552 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14 miles northeast of Downtown Asheville, or 4 miles north of Black Mountain. This storm was nearly stationary. Locations to be impacted include... Black Mountain, B.R. Parkway-Craggy To Little Switzerland, Old Fort, Mount Mitchell State Park, B.R. Parkway-East Asheville To Craggy Gardens, Montreat and Busick. Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek higher ground if threatened by flood waters. && LAT...LON 3563 8241 3575 8238 3577 8214 3557 8221 TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 289DEG 2KT 3568 8232 ARK
The office that day
Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 4:29 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Haywood, Madison | 31 min |
| Jul 10, 5:14 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Henderson | 31 min |
| Jul 10, 5:30 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Mitchell | 30 min |
| Jul 10, 6:06 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Henderson | 24 min |
| Jul 10, 6:36 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Buncombe | 24 min |
| Jul 10, 6:37 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Henderson | 23 min |
| Jul 10, 7:04 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Henderson | 26 min |
| Jul 10, 3:48 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Oconee | 27 min |
| Jul 10, 2:52 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Franklin, Stephens | 23 min |
| Jul 10, 3:19 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Rabun | 26 min |
| Jul 10, 4:55 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Elbert | 35 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.