Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
243 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will lay over to the north of the region tonight
through Saturday. Warm and moist high pressure will set up over the
southeast through the rest of the weekend and persist throughout
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM Friday: We're already seeing a cluster of thunderstorms
make their way into Graham and Swain Counties from Eastern Tenn.
This activity should steadily push eastward into the aftn with
convective coverage expanding in the process. Otherwise, the fcst
appears to be in fairly good shape wrt the earlier onset of
convection.

Otherwise, thru the near-term period the upper pattern is expected
to flatten and deamplify across the region. A weak cold front over
the lower OH Valley region should approach our area with enough
mid/upper lvl support to keep it moving thru tonight. For tomorrow,
model guidance once again suggests a favorable environment for
thunderstorms to develop over the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia. Although the mid/upper lvl forcing appears minimal, the air
mass should be able sustain mixed-layer CAPE of approx 1000-2000
J/kg by midday but minimal shear (<15 kt). A few storms will likely
become strong to severe, although most of the stronger storms will
likely remain to our west. Coverage should decrease by the early
evening, with lingering showers possible well into the night. Temps
will remain slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 pm EDT Friday: A deep, closed, low pressure system will
cut off from the Midwest to the southern Plains Saturday night
through Sunday. With this sytem in place to the west, and
strengthening Bermuda high pressure in place off the southeast
coast, southerly flow will continue over our region along with
elevated moisture levels. The stacked low pressure system will
slowly start to fill through Monday. The persistent, deep southerly
flow will maintain precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2 inches in
area profiles, with daily thunderstorm chances running well above
climo each afternoon and evening. Will keep the coverage best across
the NC mountains where light terrain triggering in the southerly
upslope will be best. Surface based instability and lapse rates look
fairly unimpressive and this should mute the severe thunderstorm
threat each day. Expect near climo temps on Sunday, maybe a few
degrees below on maxes with clouds on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 pm EDT Friday: An upper level trough axis west of the
Appalachians early in the period on Tuesday will slowly deamplify as
it moves east through the week. With a moist and unstable airmass
persisting across the region, precipitation will maintain a focus of
mainly diurnal convection each afternoon and evening, with more
isolated shower coverage at night. PoPs will be best over the
mountains where the moisture will be deeper and forcing better.
Slightly more zonal flow will develop briefly on Thursday as the
northern tier wave phases back into the westerlies, but with
cyclonic flow redeveloping upstream by Friday. Little to no airmass
change during this period means persistence on near climo temps and
above climo diurnal rainfall chances through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A weak cold front will continue to push
thru the fcst area this aftn and early evening generating sct to
numerous showers and thunderstorms as it does. The latest CAM
guidance has the bulk of the activity south and/or east of our
fcst area by 23z or so, with the possibility of a few lingering
showers. As such, I kept a TEMPO for TSRA at all sites (except
KHKY and KAVL) for the first 4 hrs or so of the taf period. It's
looking like the thunderstorms have already moved east of KHKY
and KAVL, and they will only see showers for the rest of the
afternoon/evening. After the convection moves east, winds should
continue to favor a WSWLY direction and eventually become light
and vrb overnight. They will eventually pick back up from the S
towards the end of the taf period late tomorrow morning/early aftn.
The only exception will be KAVL, where winds will favor a NWLY
direction thru tonight and into the overnight before becoming
light and vrb tomorrow morning. In addition, we'll likely see
some fog developing over the mtn valleys and possibly the NC
Piedmont early Saturday morning.

Outlook: An unsettled pattern, with mainly diurnal convection
and morning stratus/fog, is expected to persist thru the weekend
and into early next week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  92%     High  97%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
218 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-101830-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
218 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, the mountains and foothills of western North Carolina, and
the mountains of Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may redevelop across the
mountains and foothills late this afternoon and this evening. Cloud
to ground lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall will be the
main threats with any thunderstorms that redevelop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
101830-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
218 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the Piedmont
of western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will roll east through the region this afternoon before
diminishing from the west early this evening. A few of the
thunderstorms will be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and
large hail possible. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours will
also accompany the thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

NCZ071-082-091945-
Union NC-Mecklenburg NC-
257 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM EDT...

At 257 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles east of Uptown
Charlotte to 9 miles northeast of Indian Land, and moving southeast
at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Monroe, Indian Trail, Stallings, Unionville, Wingate, Marshville,
Lake Park, Hemby Bridge, Fairview and Sturdivants.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 8032 3505 8074 3522 8058 3518 8049
      3518 8048 3517 8047 3516 8044 3517 8042
      3516 8041 3518 8037 3517 8036 3518 8031
      3519 8030 3519 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 299DEG 29KT 3524 8067 3507 8070

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 PM EDT FRI JUL 09 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW CHARLOTTE          35.21N 80.85W
07/09/2021                   MECKLENBURG        NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AT PARK RD. AND EAST BLVD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
307 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

NCZ057-072-091930-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
307 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 307 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northwest of Albemarle, or 5 miles southeast of Rockwell,
moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gold Hill.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3550 8029 3543 8035 3546 8042 3556 8039
      3556 8021 3555 8021 3554 8020 3553 8020
      3552 8018 3550 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 283DEG 14KT 3550 8033

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
310 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

SCZ014-091945-
Chester SC-
310 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM EDT...

At 310 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Chester, moving east at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Chester, Richburg and Chester State Park.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3465 8130 3475 8129 3477 8097 3458 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 270DEG 23KT 3469 8121

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
313 PM EDT FRI JUL 09 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW LOWESVILLE         35.45N 81.03W
07/09/2021                   LINCOLN            NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ON HOUSE ON BROADLEAF DR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
339 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

NCZ082-092015-
Union NC-
339 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM EDT...

At 339 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 3 miles west of Monroe
to 6 miles northeast of Lancaster, and moving southeast at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Monroe, Wesley Chapel, Waxhaw, Mineral Springs, Weddington, Jaars and
Trinity.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3487 8031 3481 8032 3482 8079 3489 8079
      3504 8073 3488 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 312DEG 25KT 3497 8060 3480 8073

LANE