Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
528 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Cyclone Elsa will pass quickly north through Georgia and
the Carolinas through Thursday resulting in gusty winds and heavy
showers for parts of the piedmont. Following this, an active mid-
summertime pattern will develop by the weekend with a chance for
showers and pulse thunderstorms each day into the early part of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 520 PM: A band of showers and isolated embedded tstms
continue to form along a line from northern GA to the Charlotte
area, essentially bisecting the FA w-e. The convection is drifting
north. Behind that band, thick cirrus and altostratus is helping
cap convection ahead of the main precip associated with Elsa further
south. The thinking still is that once this initial band dissipates
early this evening, we'll have a lull in PoPs.  Can't rule out an
isolated strong storm but instability/shear values are muted. An
isolated heavy rainfall producer is also possible, but any flood
chance is low unless training cells develop.

Shower chances ramp back up overnight as Elsa tracks toward the
area. Expect widespread showers and isolated storms across most
of the area. With the center of Elsa tracking closer to our area,
expect wind speed and gusts to pick up late tonight and continue
through the morning. Strongest winds will be across and east of the
I-77 corridor, but nothing close to tropical storm winds expected
for our area as the better wind field will be east of the track.
Heavy rain continues to be the main threat, especially with the
track closer to our area. PW values over 2 inches are expected
to move in from the south. The axis of heaviest QPF has shifted
west but the heaviest rainfall is expected to be to our east. The
heaviest rainfall for our area is expected over Union, NC with a
quick drop off east and north of there. Can't rule out some isolated
flooding over the eastern portion of the CLT Metro area. However,
potential coverage and overall flood chance precludes the issuance
of a watch for now. Finally, the track of the storm is still not the
most favorable for tropical tornadoes. However, the guidance does
indicate a brief uptick in 0-1 km helicity and shear as the center
moves by. Surface, mixed level, and most unstable CAPE are all at a
minima during that time as it will be near the 12Z time frame. This
limits the overall threat, but will need to be watched in real time.

Elsa quickly moves northeast away from the area Thursday afternoon,
bringing an end to the tropical threats. Precip chances taper off
quickly from west to east as well. There will be lingering low
level moisture and developing instability with heating during the
afternoon. So scattered diurnal convection could return. Highs
will be below normal with morning clouds and precip, but muggy
conditions will continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Wednesday: Elsa's circulation is progged to be
downstream of even the NE cwfa by sunset Thursday leaving our
sensible wx to just dissipating diurnal mountain deep convection.
The next synoptic scale feature of limited interest to affect the
region will be a weak cold front which is progged to ripple through
on Friday. With at least some frontal band forcing present within a
plume of developing moderate instability cvrg of storms should
blossom to numerous as the day wears on.  With subtle troughiness in
the  upper pattern continuing into Saturday along with developing
lee trough, there would seem to be little to inhibit deep convective
cvrg becoming numerous again.  Temperatures through the period will
be within a category of the mid-summer climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday: Upper heights atop the SE CONUS will
begin rising on Sunday and continue into Monday as blocking Bermuda
hipres builds wwd. Within the decent southerly convergent flow
between the Plains system and offshore anticyclone, expect daily
diurnally enhanced numerous showers and thunderstorms. With the axis
of the stout anticyclone pressing a bit further west on Tuesday and
Wednesday, more in the way of solid Piedmont lower 90s for max
temperatures is expected, and daily diurnal thunderstorms should
become more scattered in nature.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated SHRA popping up across the area will
become SCT TSRA for the afternoon. Have VCSH and TEMPOs in place for
this activity. Expect TSRA to linger into the early evening before
precip transitions to showers directly associated with the approach
of Elsa. These showers become widespread overnight with moderate
rainfall, heavy rainfall more likely at KCLT and possibly the SC
sites late overnight and early Thursday. Cigs fall to MVFR overnight
with IFR to LIFR expected before daybreak through the morning. Vsby
will drop to at least MVFR with IFR possible in the heavier showers.
TSRA possible but chance too low for the TAF for now. Southerly wind
through the evening becomes ENE overnight. Gusty winds likely at
KCLT and possible at the SC sites. KCLT may also have LLWS given the
close approach of the center of Elsa. For now, it looks more likely
just south and east of the airfield, but may still impact
approach/departure gates. Rainfall ends from west to east through
the morning as Elsa picks up speed and moves NE. Expect vsby
improvement with the departing precip, but cigs will be slower to
improve. Isolated to scattered afternoon convection may develop in
the wake of Elsa as well. Winds turn northerly then NW through the
day.

Outlook: An unsettled pattern, with mainly diurnal convection and
morning stratus/fog, is expected to persist into the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Med   76%     High  89%
KGSP       High 100%     Med   78%     High  86%     High  86%
KAVL       High 100%     High  80%     High  88%     High  82%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   72%     High  88%
KGMU       High 100%     Med   78%     Med   69%     Med   73%
KAND       High 100%     Med   76%     Med   66%     High  84%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
452 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-
080900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
452 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There will be a threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Any of these storms
will be capable of producing cloud- to- ground lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-080900-
Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
452 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There will be a threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Any of these storms
will be capable of producing cloud- to- ground lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Elsa will track across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia
today. Elsa is expected to track across the eastern Carolinas
tonight into Thursday afternoon, bringing the potential for heavy
rainfall, especially for the far southeastern zones of our forecast
area. Forecast confidence remains low at this time as the track
still
has the potential to shift slightly to the west or to the east. Stay
up to date with the latest forecast information regarding Elsa as
any shift in the track could change the impacts we see across
northeast Georgia and the western Carolinas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
450 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

NCZ071-072115-
Mecklenburg NC-
450 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM EDT...

At 449 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Indian Land, or near Southpark Mall, moving north at
25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include... Charlotte and Pineville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3506 8075 3504 8087 3505 8089 3531 8100
      3531 8099 3534 8071
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 173DEG 21KT 3511 8083

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
545 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

NCZ056-069-070-072215-
Gaston NC-Lincoln NC-Catawba NC-
545 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA...WESTERN
LINCOLN AND NORTHWESTERN GASTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 545 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Lincolnton, or 5 miles north of Cherryville, moving
north at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Cherryville, Cooksville, Propst, Vale and Crouse.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3538 8131 3538 8142 3543 8146 3558 8153
      3561 8151 3565 8146 3567 8129
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 175DEG 15KT 3546 8140

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
554 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

NCZ068-072230-
Cleveland NC-
554 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM EDT...

At 554 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Shelby, or near Fallston, moving north at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Belwood, Fallston, Lawndale and Waco.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3542 8145 3535 8143 3533 8153 3551 8159
      3552 8151
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 175DEG 14KT 3541 8149

LANE