Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
807 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing cold front will move southeast of the area this evening.
This will begin a dry and mild weather pattern that will last into
the early part of next week. This will give somewhat unseasonal
dryness and fair weather for the Independence Day holiday.  By the
mid to late next week, either remnants of Elsa, should there be any,
or impacts from next upstream low pressure system will return
humidity and chances for showers to the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 615 pm EDT: The convection-allowing models have been
stubbornly persistent that redevelopment of scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms will occur somewhere along and southeast of I-
85 this evening. Radar has shown modest hints of this in NE GA and
the western Upstate, but with very little to no coverage thus far in
the light northerly flow regime area NW of KCLT. Nevertheless, it's
hard to buck such agreement in the CAMs given weak upper support
arriving over the passing cold front, and lingering 1000-2000 J/kg
sbCAPE values in the southern tier. A modest PoP boost within the
chance range has been given to lower Piedmont locations through mid-
evening. Temperatures appear on track given weak cold advection in
developing northerly flow, moderated a bit by modest mixing and
lingering patchy stratocumulus under a mid-level inversion
overnight. This will produces mins about five degrees or so below
normal.

Saturday looks sunny, dry, and not as warm as recent days as high
pressure builds in from the NW under a deep NW flow. Temps should
stay below normal, and dewpoints have been dried out slightly with
mixing in the latest update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2pm EDT Friday:  Weather should be excellent for the
Independence Day Holiday with relatively low dewpoints for this time
of year yielding a low 5 or so degrees below seasonal normal, and a
high near normal under clear skies. Winds will also be light and
northerly.  Weather remains dry through Monday, at least.  Post
frontal regime behind trough that pulled a cold front through on
Friday, transitions to a ridge on Monday, continuing clear skies and
warming things up to above normal levels Sunday and Monday.  Surface
high will also allow some moisture to begin to move back into the
area on weak southeasterly to southwesterly flow, which along with
evapo-transpiration, will increase humidity late Sunday and beyond.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2pm EDT Friday: Unclear on the destiny of Elsa, with various
models having quite a variety of possibilities.  Latest GFS now de-
amplifies Elsa as it passes Cuba, much like the EC model has been
doing. Approach of Elsa is simultaneous with the eastward migration
of next upstream upper trough.  Either of these entities will
increase the chances for rain mid-week, with POPs first rising above
negligible levels Tuesday evening, and in an uptrend each day
thereafter, with higher levels in the afternoon in a typical diurnal
thunderstorm pattern.  Mid-level winds peak in the latest GFS
solution at only 20kts Thursday afternoon, which combine with weak
to moderate CAPE to produce only low-end severe chances.  Currently
do not have a lot of QPF in the forecast with 1 to 2 inches total
for the Wed through Thu period, but should Elsa hold together and
target the Carolinas, QPF would increase.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Despite the boundary settling southeast of
the TAF sites this evening, the convection-allowing models still
generate some vicinity showers from KAND to KCLT and this will be
retained in the forecast through 03Z. Otherwise, expect northerly
winds to gradually develop throughout, with steady clearing. Patchy
VFR stratocumulus could linger under a mid-level inversion tonight,
but with no restrictions. Little more than a few high clouds and
mainly light N to NNE winds looks likely through Saturday. KAND
winds may toggle light/variable or back to WSW late Saturday.

Outlook: Dry weather and high pressure will continue into early next
week. Diurnal convection, along with the potential for mainly
mountain valley morning fog/low stratus, will return by the middle
of next week.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WJM
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...HG/PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
353 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>070-
072-501>510-SCZ001>005-032000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Cabarrus-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
353 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the Piedmont
of North Carolina, and western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ028-029-NCZ071-082-SCZ006>014-019-032000-
Hart-Elbert-Mecklenburg-Union NC-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
353 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the southern Piedmont of North
Carolina and the Upstate of South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few isolated thunderstorms may develop south of I-85 the rest of
this afternoon, with chances diminishing rapidly into the evening.
Any of these storms may produce localized heavy rainfall and a few
cloud- to- ground lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

MPR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
905 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021

GAZ028-SCZ004-010-030130-
Hart GA-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-
905 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL HART...WEST
CENTRAL ANDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

At 905 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Seneca, or 6 miles northeast of Tugaloo State Park,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Reed Creek, Lake Hartwell, Fair Play, Townville, Oakway and Sandy
Springs.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3453 8308 3465 8297 3462 8286 3461 8286
      3461 8285 3458 8273 3439 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 308DEG 10KT 3455 8297

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
952 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021

SCZ010-030215-
Anderson SC-
952 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 952 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Anderson, or 4 miles southeast of Lake Hartwell,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Homeland Park, Iva, Starr, Anderson Airport, Lake Hartwell,
Broadway Lake and Sadlers Creek State Park.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 8274 3427 8275 3430 8278 3434 8279
      3437 8284 3438 8284 3446 8286 3455 8278
      3443 8252 3422 8273
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 308DEG 8KT 3443 8278

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1013 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021

SCZ005-010-030245-
Greater Pickens SC-Anderson SC-
1013 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM EDT...

At 1013 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Easley, or 4 miles east of Liberty, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Easley, Powdersville, Piedmont, Northlake, Liberty, Norris and West
Pelzer.

Wind gusts up to 35 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to one
inch per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3455 8270 3477 8276 3488 8258 3477 8245
      3473 8247 3471 8246 3471 8247 3468 8246
      3466 8247 3465 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 324DEG 6KT 3477 8263

HG