Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
637 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
ahead of a cold front, bringing a risk of isolated severe weather to
the region. A few storms may redevelop Friday but are not expected
to be severe. A lull in activity is expected Saturday, but chances
increase Sunday into early next week as warmer and more humid air
returns from the south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 PM Thursday: Most of the radar returns currently are
across the western Upstate and and the NC foothills. An outflow
boundary over York (SC), Chester (SC), and Union (SC) is moving from
east to west and will interact with the ongoing activity within the
next hour or two. This should help storms to increase in intensity
and allow for training cells and longer duration of heavy rainfall
over the Upstate and NC piedmont, while the convective environment
lingers past sunset within the warm sector. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms will continue well into the evening across the
CFWA before tapering off overnight with just a few lingering showers
expected. Localized flash flooding and strong to severe
thunderstorms will continue to be a possibility until midnight
tonight or so.

Most of the area is now between the better instability to
our east and better forcing over the west closer to the approaching
cold front and short wave. Strong convection has developed to our
west with the front and has entered our western zones and is expected
to move east of the area by midnight or so. Strong to isolated
severe storms are expected as the convection continues to move in
from west to east with at least moderate instability in place across
the area along with good effective shear. A few multicells have been
pushing through the region and this should be the main form of
convection with ~700 J/kg of DCAPE across the Piedmont supports
marginal wind damage potential under any cells that do form. Good
forcing and upper divergence move in with the short wave, so any
locations where training cells can develop will have the potential
for heavy rainfall. Still looks like the overall chance of flooding
remains isolated. Precip chances taper off quickly after midnight.

The short wave and cold front move to our east Friday. There will be
some lingering low level moisture, so isolated showers may linger
along the TN border and south of I-85. No significant rainfall is
expected with these showers. Skies should clear for much of the area
during the afternoon under a post-frontal regime. Highs will be near
or slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1235 PM Thursday...The upper pattern becomes increasingly
anti-cyclonic thru the weekend as a subTrop ridge axis develops
overhead. Precip chances will remain low with some potential for
-shra/tstms across the ern Piedmont Sat afternoon associated with
passing vort lobes. The Sat overnight period will be calm and may
produce patchy or areas of fog mainly across the mtn valleys where
sfc tdd/s look to drop the most. Another mostly inactive day is in
store for Sun until the later afternoon when the upper ridge breaks
down and the GOM becomes wide open. Expect good moist flux thru a
deep layer which will help set off afternoon storms. Surface based
CAPE remains low-end as the column saturates and shear will be
negligible. So, typical summertime pulse storms look to be in store
generally confined to the sw/rn half of the FA. Temps will remain
right arnd normal and with high sfc td/s and low winds it will feel
muggy each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...Not much change in the sensible weather fcst
over the ext range. The atmos will continue deeply moist as the GOM
remains wide open with subTrop ridging backing off and a feed upper
low situated over wrn TX. Soundings show PWAT values ranging
around 1.8 inches each day and weak to nil ulvl forcing and very
weak shear will make the convec mode most likely general pulse
storms. These storms will be slow moving and outflow driven within
warm cloud processes, thus there will be a chance for high rainfall
amts and hydro in any given location, yet moreso across the NC mtns.
With layered clouds and precip...max temps will be held a few
degrees below normal Mon/Tue, then rebound to arnd normal levels by
Wed. Mins will be held abt 5 degrees abv normal each night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Generally low VFR still expected in
convection where generally MVFR is expected with brief IFR in the
heavier showers/thunderstorms. Latest guidance suggests TSRA most
likely for TAF sites through the evening hours. Have adjusted TEMPOs
to fit this. Added variable wind gusts as well given the profiles.
May be some lingering showers overnight but precip chances drop off
quickly after midnight. Lingering low level moisture means another
round of MVFR to IFR cigs by daybreak with MVFR to possibly IFR
vsby, especially in the major mountain valleys. A shower could be in
the KCLT vicinity Friday afternoon with the lingering low level
moisture, but confidence is too low for a mention in the TAF at this
time as most of the activity should stay to the east. Any
restrictions should lift or scatter out by noon with clearing skies.
SW wind continues through the period except for KAVL where NW wind
develops Friday morning.

Outlook: Dry Saturday. Chance of diurnal convection and associated
restrictions return for the first part of next week.

Confidence Table...

            22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z        16-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  87%     High  87%     High  97%
KGSP       High 100%     High  97%     Med   72%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  87%     Med   65%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High  80%     Med   70%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     Med   60%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  97%     High  80%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...CAC/RWH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...CAC/RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
344 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-041945-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
344 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region,
mainly through this evening. Conditions will be favorable for a few
strong to severe storms to develop, mainly posing a risk of brief
damaging wind gusts. Excessive runoff from heavy rain may lead to
minor flooding in urban and other flood-prone areas. Any
thunderstorm will be capable of cloud-to-ground lightning and
torrential rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

Lane

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
342 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

GAZ026-032015-
Franklin GA-
342 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

At 342 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of Homer, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Carnesville, Franklin Springs and Victoria Bryant State Park.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3425 8334 3426 8334 3433 8339 3443 8338
      3448 8324 3448 8320 3426 8313 3424 8317
      3425 8320 3424 8325 3425 8329 3426 8329
      3426 8330 3423 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 256DEG 14KT 3431 8342

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
426 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

GAZ026-028-SCZ010-032100-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Anderson SC-
426 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...HART AND
SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 425 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Hartwell, or over Bowersville, moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hartwell, Royston, Reed Creek, Lavonia, Canon, Franklin Springs,
Bowersville, Victoria Bryant State Park, Lake Hartwell and Sadlers
Creek State Park.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Lake Hartwell is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3443 8320 3448 8304 3447 8300 3451 8296
      3455 8284 3428 8276 3429 8278 3428 8280
      3425 8311 3427 8312 3425 8316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 258DEG 17KT 3436 8308

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
534 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

SCZ006-010-011-032200-
Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-Greater Greenville SC-
534 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL GREENVILLE...
CENTRAL ANDERSON AND ABBEVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 534 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Anderson to 11 miles east of Elberton, and
moving east at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Abbeville, Homeland Park, Belton, Williamston, Northlake,
Honea Path, Calhoun Falls, Due West and Iva.

Wind gusts up to 35 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3407 8246 3408 8248 3407 8250 3407 8253
      3408 8265 3409 8264 3413 8267 3415 8272
      3421 8274 3461 8275 3469 8233 3435 8232
      3434 8233 3433 8232 3407 8232 3406 8234
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 263DEG 23KT 3455 8268 3417 8268

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
545 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

NCZ068-504-508-032215-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Greater Burke NC-
545 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...NORTH
CENTRAL CLEVELAND AND SOUTHERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 545 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Morganton, or 5 miles west of South Mountains State
Park, moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Morganton, Valdese, Connelly Springs, Rutherford College, South
Mountains State Park, Icard and Pleasant Grove.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 8145 3561 8151 3557 8153 3556 8153
      3555 8151 3552 8151 3554 8183 3556 8183
      3558 8182 3562 8184 3569 8185 3577 8147
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 263DEG 18KT 3562 8175

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
839 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

SCZ008-009-013-014-040115-
York SC-Cherokee SC-Union SC-Chester SC-
839 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHESTER...
SOUTHWESTERN YORK...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 839 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Union, or near Lockhart, moving north at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lockhart, Sharon, Hickory Grove, Monarch Mill, Adamsburg, Bullock
Creek and Saratt.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3466 8144 3471 8157 3506 8151 3496 8120
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 202DEG 21KT 3476 8148

ARK