Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
219 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
ahead of a cold front, bringing a risk of isolated severe weather to
the region. A few storms may redevelop Friday but are not expected
to be severe. A lull in activity is expected Saturday, but chances
increase Sunday into early next week as warmer and more humid air
returns from the south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Thursday: Most of the area is now between the better
instability to our east and better forcing over the west closer to
the approaching cold front and short wave. Latest CAM guidance show
the strong convection to the east may clip a county or two but
should remain just to our east. They also show the strong convection
to our west with the front will move into the area by late afternoon
and move east of the area by midnight or so. Strong to isolated
severe storms are expected as the convection to the west moves in
with at least moderate instability in place across the area along
with good effective shear. The minima in precip over much of the
area is allowing heating, and DCAPE values are creeping upward.
Therefore, damaging winds are the main threat. Good forcing and
upper divergence move in with the short wave, so any locations where
training cells can develop will have the potential for heavy
rainfall. Still looks like the overall chance of flooding remains
isolated. Precip chances taper off quickly after midnight.

The short wave and cold front move to our east Friday. There will be
some lingering low level moisture, so isolated showers may linger
along the TN border and south of I-85. No significant rainfall is
expected with these showers. Skies should clear for much of the area
during the afternoon. Highs will be near or slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1235 PM Thursday...The upper pattern becomes increasingly
anti-cyclonic thru the weekend as a subTrop ridge axis develops
overhead. Precip chances will remain low with some potential for
-shra/tstms across the ern Piedmont Sat afternoon associated with
passing vort lobes. The Sat overnight period will be calm and may
produce patchy or areas of fog mainly across the mtn valleys where
sfc tdd/s look to drop the most. Another mostly inactive day is in
store for Sun until the later afternoon when the upper ridge breaks
down and the GOM becomes wide open. Expect good moist flux thru a
deep layer which will help set off afternoon storms. Surface based
CAPE remains low-end as the column saturates and shear will be
negligible. So, typical summertime pulse storms look to be in store
generally confined to the sw/rn half of the FA. Temps will remain
right arnd normal and with high sfc td/s and low winds it will feel
muggy each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...Not much change in the sensible weather fcst
over the ext range. The atmos will continue deeply moist as the GOM
remains wide open with subTrop ridging backing off and a feed upper
low situated over wrn TX. Soundings show PWAT values ranging
around 1.8 inches each day and weak to nil ulvl forcing and very
weak shear will make the convec mode most likely general pulse
storms. These storms will be slow moving and outflow driven within
warm cloud processes, thus there will be a chance for high rainfall
amts and hydro in any given location, yet moreso across the NC mtns.
With layered clouds and precip...max temps will be held a few
degrees below normal Mon/Tue, then rebound to arnd normal levels by
Wed. Mins will be held abt 5 degrees abv normal each night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Generally low VFR this afternoon except in
convection where generally MVFR is expected with brief IFR in the
heavier showers/thunderstorms. Latest guidance suggests TSRA most
likely for TAF sites during the late afternoon/early evening. Have
adjusted TEMPOs to fit this. Added variable wind gusts as well given
the profiles. May be some lingering showers after into the evening
but precip chances taper off quickly after midnight. Lingering low
level moisture means another round of MVFR to IFR cigs by daybreak
with MVFR to possibly IFR vsby. Any restrictions should lift or
scatter out by noon with clearing skies. SW wind continues through
the period except for KAVL where NW wind develops Friday morning.

Outlook: Dry Saturday. Chance of diurnal convection and associated
restrictions return for the first part of next week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High  99%     High  88%     High  85%     High  88%
KGSP       High 100%     High  95%     High  83%     High  95%
KAVL       High 100%     High  92%     Med   79%     High  87%
KHKY       High  99%     High  86%     Med   79%     High  85%
KGMU       High 100%     High  95%     Med   69%     High  96%
KAND       High 100%     High  98%     High  82%     High  90%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RWH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
342 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

GAZ026-032015-
Franklin GA-
342 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

At 342 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of Homer, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Carnesville, Franklin Springs and Victoria Bryant State Park.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3425 8334 3426 8334 3433 8339 3443 8338
      3448 8324 3448 8320 3426 8313 3424 8317
      3425 8320 3424 8325 3425 8329 3426 8329
      3426 8330 3423 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 256DEG 14KT 3431 8342

ARK