Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1012 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross our area today, triggering another
round of showers and thunderstorms.  Behind the front, temperatures
will return to normal as high pressure builds in for Monday.
More unsettled weather looks to be in store for the region by the
middle of the week as another strong cold front reaches our region
from the northwest. After that cold front moves through Wednesday
night, expect some cool weather for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM Update...Precip shield with embedded thunder is working
across the NC mtns attm. Not seeing much rise on streams and likely
will cancel the FF.A early behind the line in a few hrs. Stronger
storms are moving into NE GA and VIS Sat is showing pockets of diff
heating to the east which will support increasing instability thru
the later morning and early afternoon. Thus, the strong/severe
threat still looks okay as deep forcing and 0-6 km shear
increases.

Given the fast progression of this convection system, it may be east
of the area by 3 PM, and max temps may not be quite as high as
expected. The main threat with the line will be damaging wind gusts,
and the unidirectional shear should limit any tornado threat. But a
brief spin up somewhere along the line cannot be ruled out.

The flash flood threat will be contingent on the rain rates with
the main line of pre-frontal convection, as the line will be
moving pretty quickly, and there won't be much precip outside of
that. Given the high stream levels from earlier rainfall, will
leave the Flash Flood Watch as is.

Behind the pre-frontal convection, there will be some lingering
clouds and precip, with a secondary line of showers possibly
forming over the NC Piedmont along the actual front. This line
likely won't be severe, as it will have less CAPE to work with. The
bigger concern will be gradient winds picking up within strong
CAA in the NC mountains. Could see NWLY 45-55 mph gusts in the
northern mountains from mid-aftn thru the evening hours. So will
issue a Wind Advisory for Yancey/Mitchell/Avery from 16z to 6z
tonight. Temps will fall quickly tonight, dipping into the 30s to
lower 40s across most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Sunday: The first part of the work week is looking
fairly benign, with a flat mid/upper ridge pushing sfc high pressure
across the region on Monday and off the Mid Atlc/Carolina coast
Monday night. A weak sheared wave moving along the Gulf Coast looks
more and more like it will remain to our south through Monday night
and it won't be until Tuesday that we start getting some moisture
return as the upper pattern starts amplifying with the deepening
trof well to our west. This is something of a delay from what we
were looking at last night. With this trend, it seems like Tuesday
is more likely to remain dry for at least the first half of the
day. Although guidance precip prob is generally accepted, it was
pushed back until late in the day and kept over northeast GA and
SC for the most part. Temps will generally remain close to normal,
maybe a bit below Monday then a bit above Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 329 am EDT Sunday: The middle part of the week looks active
and the latter part of the week looks like February. The main player
for the medium range will be a deep and amplifying mid/upper trof
that drops down over the Plains Tuesday night and barrels eastward
Wednesday, finally crossing our region Wednesday night with a strong
cold frontal passage. Out ahead of the approaching trof, moisture
will stream northward from the Gulf with strengthening isentropic
upglide forcing the development of precip Tuesday night and early
Wednesday, thus precip probs ramp up quickly. The best forcing
will be brought to bear across the region mainly on Wednesday,
and with deep moisture in place, precip seems like a good bet. How
much will depend on how quickly the front would move through, but
this will have to be monitored in light of the recent rainfall we
have had across the region. Severe weather will also be a concern,
partly because of the frontal passage which could happen during peak
heating. However, confidence in severe storms is low at the moment
because the ECMWF develops only modest amounts of buoyancy and the
GFS keeps a cool pool over the region once again. After the cold
front blasts through late in the day, a downright seasonally cold
Canadian high pressure air mass will move down across the region for
late in the week. Residual moisture could be squeezed out over the
mtns Wednesday evening in the form of high elevation snow showers,
but the rest of the week will be dry. Temps could be well below
normal for this time of year, and similar to what would be expected
in February. Highs might only be in the lower 50s east of the mtns
on Thursday under strong cold advection, and for the moment, the
entire fcst area looks like it could be below freezing at daybreak
Friday. The large sfc high will control our weather through next
weekend with temps slowly moderating back toward normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A wedge front can be seen in the obs,
finally beginning to lift north and should start pushing thru the
Upstate TAF sites and KCLT by 12z. This will bring winds around
out of the S/SW and VFR conditions. Then winds will pick up and
become gusty by 14z at all sites. Still expecting a frontal band
of showers and some embedded tstms crossing the area from west to
east in the 15-20z time frame, based on timing the current radar
trends. The line will have the potential to produce some strong
gusts, and winds will shift slightly to more WSW or W, remaining
gusty. A cold front will push thru and toggle winds to NW, with
gusts continuing thru the evening. MVFR to IFR Cigs will try to hold
on north of the wedge front over KHKY to start the TAF, otherwise,
expect VFR cigs and vsby, except with the convection. Low VFR cigs
start to clear out behind the front this evening.

Outlook: Dry high pressure returns Monday. Then moisture returns
ahead of the next cold front and flight restrictions are likely
across the region Tuesday night thru Wednesday.

Confidence Table...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  98%     High  98%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  91%     High  97%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High  91%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  98%     High  98%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for NCZ033-049-050.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
943 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-291345-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
943 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A line of thunderstorms is still expected to cross the region today.
Damaging winds remain the main threat, but a few storms may produce
large hail, as well. An isolated, brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-291345-
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
943 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-049-050-291345-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
943 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
841 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

NCZ051-052-058-059-281330-
Haywood NC-Graham NC-Swain NC-Northern Jackson NC-
841 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...EASTERN
SWAIN...NORTHEASTERN GRAHAM AND NORTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 930
AM EDT...

At 840 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Robbinsville, or near Fontana Lake, moving east at
65 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Bryson City, Cherokee, Lake Junaluska, Clyde, Maggie Valley, Smoky
Mountains-Balsam Mountain, Smoky Mountains-Big Creek, Smoky
Mountains-Deep Creek, B.R. Parkway-Smoky Mountains To Balsam Gap and
Smoky Mountains-Cataloochee.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 8377 3566 8331 3566 8330 3567 8329
      3579 8307 3577 8299 3579 8296 3574 8295
      3575 8292 3570 8290 3569 8290 3568 8289
      3555 8282 3531 8372
TIME...MOT...LOC 1240Z 248DEG 56KT 3541 8367

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1149 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

GAZ026-028-SCZ010-281630-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Anderson SC-
1149 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL FRANKLIN...HART AND
CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

At 1148 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carnesville, moving east at 55 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Hartwell, Carnesville, Homeland Park, Northlake, Royston,
Reed Creek, Lavonia, Canon and Franklin Springs.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3425 8327 3439 8331 3449 8304 3447 8300
      3451 8296 3464 8259 3437 8251 3427 8311
      3427 8312 3424 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 1548Z 258DEG 49KT 3435 8319

WJM