River Flood Advisory 14, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

195 
WGUS82 KGSP 010715
FLSGSP

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
315 AM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021

...The Flood Advisory is cancelled for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  French Broad River Near Fletcher affecting Buncombe and Henderson 
  Counties.

NCC021-089-010815-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FL.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-210401T0715Z/
/FLCN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
315 AM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021

...The Flood Advisory for the French Broad River Near Fletcher has 
been cancelled...

The Flood Advisory is cancelled for
  the French Broad River Near Fletcher.
* At 2:30 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 9.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 6.8 feet early Tuesday 
  morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3541 8257 3550 8262 3550 8254
      3540 8250 3537 8250

$$

ARK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1201 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move off the Carolina coast early Thursday.
Unseasonably cold high pressure will build in behind the front
tonight and settle over the region for the rest of the week. Expect
an upper level ridge to build over the region from Sunday into next
week, continuing dry, but warmer weather. The next rain maker will
approach our region in the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM: CWA undergoing gradual process of pattern change. An
almost full-latitude trough is moving into the Mississippi Valley
today, and a sharp upper ridge remains off the East Coast,
maintaining a shallow sfc airmass over which isentropic lift
produced a stratus deck which lingers over most of the CWA. Broad
area of modest and mostly stratiform precip extends from N GA to
VA within this warm advection regime, enhanced by upper divergence
provided by jet streak in the NW half of the Ohio Valley. To some
extent it is being further enhanced by mechanical lift in the SW
upslope areas; accordingly, mostly Flood Advisory responses have
occured in NE GA and our westernmost NC zones. Starting to see this
precip shift east of the Appalachians following the better forcing,
and transition to convective with weak elevated instability atop
the sfc airmass. Not yet clear if the risk is entirely over for
the mountain area where we have the Flash Flood Watch; there
remains some opportunity for new issues given precip moving in
from upstream areas of TN/GA, but the current thinking is that
this area may not destabilize enough to have a chance at heavy
convective rain later this afternoon. Will consider adjustments
to Watch with 3 PM package.

Although the pattern was reminiscent of in-situ CAD, the inversion
has not proven not strong enough to keep the low clouds locked
in even as much as the normally good LAMP aviation guidance would
suggest. Accordingly we're seeing ceilings lift across our southern
zones, and our confidence has grown on enough warming occurring to
allow sfc-based instability to develop over much of the Piedmont.
Modestly strong shear is already present aloft, owing to the
gradient ahead of the approaching trough. This shear is already
responsible for the elevated convective showers orienting in
linear segments.  Couldn't rule out some localized strong gusts
being brought down by these showers, but severe risk with them
remains low. The bigger implication for the shear remains any
surface-based storms that are able to fire later today. Jet streak
and base of trough will remain in position upstream to provide
somewhat of an initiation mechanism, and low- to mid-level lapse
rates become favorable once the expected sfc warming occurs. The
shear is mostly unidirectional, and 0-1km shear/helicity don't look
likely to increase enough to create a particularly notable tornado
risk. Nevertheless 0-3km shear is 30-40 kt and most CAM runs depict
isolated swaths of updraft helicity accompanying a broken line of
cells generally this afternoon. Can't downplay the flash flood
threat with this line, but confidence not currently high enough
(and issues likely too isolated) to warrant expansion of Watch.

By late evening, cold air will be undercutting the warmer air at
mid-levels in our mountains, with arrival of the true cold front. In
the wake of the front, we develop a pressure difference of 6-8 mb
across the mtn chain that persists into the overnight hours. The
combination of cold advection flow and strong pressure gradient
should lead to strong winds coming over the top of the Appalachian
Divide and then sinking down the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Guidance
suggests enough potential for occasional gusts upwards of 50 mph in
a narrow corridor near the Escarpment, so a Wind Advisory will be
issued starting at 00Z. The cold advection will also start to change
precip over at the high elevations, but with an interesting wrinkle
in that the near-sfc temps will fall below freezing while warmer air
remains above 5k feet initially. This could lead to a brief period
of potentially light freezing rain at some of the highest elevations
before the entire column drops below freezing after midnight and
changes any remaining precip over to light snow. At this point,
any accumulations would be limited to elevations generally above
5000 feet, so a Winter Weather Advisory will not be issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday: Strong 850 mb CAA and a tight pres grad
across the mountains will keep gusty NW winds thru the day. May
approach advisory criteria, so will have the Wind Advisory go
thru 00z Friday. It will be breezy elsewhere, as well, and with
max temps 15-20 deg below normal, it will feel like early February
rather than early April. A few snow showers may linger along the TN
border early in the day, but accums should be localized and light.

Winds will begin to slacken off Thursday aftn into Thursday night,
but stay up enough that we should stay mixed overnight. Still,
with the CAA, temps should fall into the teens to mid 20s in the
mountains, and upper 20s to lower 30s across the Piedmont. Our
Frost/Freeze program turn on date is April 1st for the Piedmont,
except for the I-40 corridor, so a Freeze Warning will likely be
needed. It's still too early for a Freeze Watch, but one may be
issued later today, if confidence remains high. Will continue to
mention in the HWO. The current forecast lows for April 2nd approach
or break record lows (see Climate section below for more info).

Friday will lingering breezy conditions, and combined with low RH,
may have some fire wx concerns, depending on how much the fuels are
able to dry out Thursday. Highs will be 15-20 deg below normal,
despite full sunshine. The center of the Canadian high pressure
will settle over the area Friday night, allowing winds to become
light or calm. Good radiational cooling should allow temps to fall
into the 20s to mid 30s. So areas of frost and light to moderate
freeze is expected again across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday: We may start out with a frosty morning
on Saturday, but expect a quick warm-up back to only a category
below normal for Saturday's highs. An upper ridge will gradually
build over the central CONUS thru the first half of next week,
and maintain a dry west to northwest flow atop the FA. Sfc high
pressure will remain anchored over the Southeast, but will moderate,
resulting in continued dry conditions but above normal temps. The
latest NBM temps and dewpts only bring min RH values into the 30s
each day next week. But it wouldn't surprise me, if aftn RH values
end up lower, resulting in some fire wx concerns. Fortunately,
winds should be light thanks to the high parked over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Aviation weather looks grim over the next
18 hours as a moisture moves in ahead of a strong cold front that
is expected to blast through the region Wednesday night. Northward
moisture transport and isentropic upglide had already forced the
development of an IFR/LIFR stratus deck across most of the region
save some mountain locations. Precip will move steadily eastward
across the region this morning.  Details are a bit more sketchy
than previously thought, with guidance now suggesting a messy
frontal passage with two main periods of precip. The first will
be the wide band of showers and embedded thunderstorms that will
move east across the fcst area this morning and into the late
afternoon. This will be handled with a TEMPO for the most likely
thunderstorm interval. A lull of sorts is expected after the first
batch of precip passes, with perhaps precip ending for a short
while and conditions improving to VFR. However, a second round of
precip was indicated behind the initial band later this evening as
another round of mid/upper forcing moves overhead. The front will
cross the region late this evening and into the overnight hours,
with wind switching around quickly to NW with frequent strong
gusts at all terminals. Within a few hours of the frontal passage,
conditions should improve to VFR at all terminals, however, this
improvement will not be included in the TAFS for this issuance in
the interest of brevity.

Outlook: VFR expected from Thursday morning onward. Expect gusty
N to NW winds to continue Thursday, then abating Thursday night.

Confidence Table...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-12Z
KCLT       High  85%     High  87%     Med   72%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   73%     High  80%     Med   66%     High 100%
KAVL       High  91%     Med   63%     High  94%     High 100%
KHKY       High  85%     High  80%     Med   77%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   73%     High  90%     Med   66%     High 100%
KAND       High  91%     High  87%     High  80%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-02

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      87 1946     41 1915     58 1945     25 1924
   KCLT      86 2014     42 1901     64 1945     28 1881
                2010
                1978
   KGSP      88 2012     49 1901     62 1979     26 1902

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010-017.
NC...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509.
     Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ051-052-
     058-059-062>065.
SC...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     SCZ003.
     Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...GSP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
524 AM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ068>072-082-508-510-SCZ004>014-019-010930-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
524 AM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A late season strong cold front is forecast to push through the area
this afternoon aiding in the development of numerous showers and
thunderstorms. A few of these storms may be severe producing damaging
wind gusts. An isolated weak, brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Behind the front, expect much colder temperatures with a freeze
likely Thursday night and possibly again Friday night. A freeze
warning will be needed for the Piedmont south of I-40 where the
growing season will have commenced.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001-002-010930-
Rabun-Habersham-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
524 AM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

A late season strong cold front is forecast to push through the area
this afternoon aiding in the development of numerous showers and
thunderstorms. A few of these storms may be severe producing damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ065-SCZ003-010930-
Henderson-Greenville Mountains-
524 AM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

A late season strong cold front is forecast to push through the area
this afternoon aiding in the development of numerous showers and
thunderstorms. A few of these storms may be severe producing damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-049-050-053-501-503-505-507-509-010930-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
524 AM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A late season strong cold front is forecast to push through the area
today and may support strong to severe thunderstorms and localized
flooding. Behind the front, there will be scattered snow showers with
minor accumulations above 3500 ft near the Tennessee border.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-048-056-057-502-504-506-010930-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Catawba-Rowan-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
524 AM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A late season strong cold front is forecast to push through the area
this afternoon aiding in the development of numerous showers and
thunderstorms. A few of these storms may be severe producing damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

ARK