River Flood Advisory 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

036 
WGUS82 KGSP 030852
FLSGSP

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
352 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Advisory is extended for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Transylvania and 
  Henderson Counties.

For the FRENCH BROAD RIVER ...including Blantyre...elevated river 
levels are forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

This will be the last river flood statement on this event. Stay 
tuned to developments.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this morning at 945 AM EST.

&&


NCC089-175-031500-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210103T1500Z/
/BLAN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
352 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Advisory is now in effect until late this morning...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the French Broad River At Blantyre.
* Until this morning.
* At 3:15 AM EST Sunday the stage was 15.38 feet.
* Action stage is 15.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has crested and is expected to fall below 
  action stage later today.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Action Stage. Most farm fields are flooding 
  between the French Broad River and Brevard Rd. and between the 
  French Broad River and Pleasant Grove Rd.


&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3536 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261

$$

CAC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
643 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low along a stalling front will likely bring another
round of rain to the region tonight. Drier high pressure will
return for the early and middle part of the coming week, but
a passing disturbance will bring a brief chance of snow to the
mountains Tuesday. A stronger and wetter system will cross the
region later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 640 PM...No big changes with this update, which is mainly
for the 00z TAFs. The kgsp radar is starting to show increasing
echoes expanding north into the Upstate and NE GA Piedmont, which
lines up with the current PoPs.

Otherwise...As we go into the evening, the closed upper low will
continue to track NE and over the Ohio Valley, bringing a quick
shot of strong dPVA and upper-lvl divergence across the region. This
energy will trigger rapid cyclogenesis along the stalled front over
GA and central SC. The front will have ample moisture as a band
of frontogenesis sets up along the bndy. Guidance produces a quick
1-2" swath of QPF from the FL Panhandle to the Midlands, which is
down a bit from previous runs. As for our CWFA, the highest storm
total QPF we currently have is just over an inch along our far SE
zones, with most of our higher terrain having 0.1 inches or less.
Yet we still cannot rule out an isolated excessive rain/minor
flooding issue later tonight along our extreme SE zones, given
the wet antecedent conditions and potentially high rain rates.
Fortunately, it should be a relatively quick shot of precip as
the moisture from the system quickly shifts east of the area by
Sunday morning and we begin to clear out from SW to NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of midday Saturday: NW flow across the southern Appalachians may
allow light precip along the NC/TN border to continue Sunday night,
but with upper flow briefly flattening and weak high pressure
expanding in from the lower Mississippi Valley, temps in the upslope
layer remain a bit too warm and moisture too shallow for a
mentionable chance of precip, without any dynamic support. Available
deterministic models still show a compact shortwave crossing the area
Monday morning, but moisture is still paltry, so no PoP then either.

An upper ridge will progress across the central CONUS late Monday
into Tuesday. Downstream of its axis, and in conjunction with a
deepening low near James Bay, a trough will dig from the Great Lakes
toward the central Appalachians. This originally had been depicted as
occurring far enough north not to give us any precip chance.
However, some guidance now suggests it will interact with the low off
New England, such that a shortwave dives toward VA/NC Tuesday
morning. QPF response has increased among the major models across the
NC/TN border; saturation is not especially deep, but vertical
profiles and sfc temps would be supportive of snow in that area,
albeit with minimal accumulation. The peak chances would be in the
morning, with upslope chances potentially continuing thru the
afternoon immediately along the border. Precip east of the mountains
currently looks unlikely, but can't be ruled out beneath the
shortwave during the day Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday: Upper ridge will continue to push east, its
axis likely centering over the CWA Wednesday evening. A shortwave
will amplify in the lee of the Rockies during the midweek, cutting
off by the time it gets as far east as Missouri. The major models
still don't seem to have a great handle on this system as it drifts
into the Southeast Thursday night; latest available deterministic
runs are in better agreement than they were yesterday at this time,
but members from the GFS/CMC/ECMWF ensembles are spread in every
direction from the mean. The system should have begun to occlude well
before it begins to affect us. Precip chances will ramp up beginning
Thursday, but the better chance comes as the occluded front moves
overhead Thu night, continuing into Friday with the upper low itself
moving overhead.

The low to mid levels will start out quite dry, and evaporative
cooling may play a big role in p-type changes. The GFS and ECMWF show
sfc temps mostly staying above freezing for the bulk of the precip;
the Canadian has tended to be an outlier for this system, but it
appears most suggestive of wintry precip. For now we will advertise
snow for most of the event over the higher terrain, and a mix of
rain/snow for the lower mountain elevations, foothills, and a portion
of the NW NC Piedmont. Given the cooling profiles and midlevel WAA
leading the system, some sleet very well may mix in. Guidance warms
temps enough during the day Friday to turn the precip back to rain
for all the lower elevations, and any remaining precip is expected to
turn back to snow before tapering off Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A rapidly developing wave of low pressure
will bring a quick shot of -SHRA across the area this evening,
mainly from a GRD-GSP-HKY line and east, but western TAF sites will
see a little -RA as well before 06z. The rain along with already
moist low-levels and light winds should result in IFR to LIFR
conditions spreading back in quickly. There could be some dense
fog again late tonight thru 14-15z Sunday, but not as widespread
as this morning. Guidance is in best agreement on the over the NC
Foothill/Piedmont, where HKY will likely be 1/4-1/2SM and VV001-002
most of the night. Less confidence for KCLT and the Upstate sites,
but nevertheless, LIFR conditions are expected. As the low begins
to depart the area in the 06-12z time frame, may start seeing
some improvement from west to east across the Upstate sites, as
SW winds pick up and mix out some of the fog/stratus. The eastern
sites will take a little longer to improve, but expected to be
a little quicker than it was today. All sites should be VFR by
mid-aftn. Winds should shift to NW across the NC sites, and W to
WSW in the Upstate, with gusts at KAVL and KAND.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to persist thru the first
half of next week. The next storm system will bring moisture back
into the region starting Thursday.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High  94%     High  85%     Med   60%     High  83%
KGSP       High 100%     High  85%     Med   75%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     Low   50%     Med   70%     High  83%
KHKY       High  83%     High  90%     Med   60%     High  94%
KGMU       High 100%     High  85%     High  80%     High  94%
KAND       High 100%     High  85%     High  95%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...ARK/JPT
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1215 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-031715-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
1215 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Wimberley