Fire Weather Watch 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

641 
WWUS82 KGSP 300546
RFWGSP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
146 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...DRY AND WINDY TODAY...

.A cold front will cross the area early this morning. Showers are
most likely across the mountains with only isolated coverage at 
best across the Foothills and Piedmont. Windy conditions are 
expected starting around daybreak behind the front. A very dry 
air mass moves in behind the front as well, bringing relative 
humidity values down near critical levels.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-301400-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.A.0002.210430T1600Z-210501T0000Z/
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
146 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Alexander, Iredell, Davie, Catawba, Rowan, 
  Cleveland, Lincoln, Gaston, Mecklenburg, Cabarrus, Union NC, 
  Greater Caldwell, Greater Burke, Eastern McDowell, Greater 
  Rutherford and Eastern Polk.

* TIMING...This afternoon through early evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* FUEL MOISTURE...Already seasonably low will likely drop 
  further with no significant wetting rain in the forecast 
  tonight or Friday.

* IMPACTS...Outdoor fires may easily grow out of control in 
  these conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

148 
WWUS82 KGSP 300930
RFWGSP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
530 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...DRY AND WINDY TODAY...

.Windy conditions are expected starting around daybreak behind 
the departing cold front. A very dry air mass moves in behind the
front as well, bringing relative humidity values down near 
critical levels.

NCZ036-037-057-071-072-082-301700-
/O.UPG.KGSP.FW.A.0002.210430T1600Z-210501T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.FW.W.0002.210430T1600Z-210501T0000Z/
Iredell-Davie-Rowan-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
530 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Red Flag Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is
in effect from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening. The Fire
Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...Iredell, Davie, Rowan, Mecklenburg, Cabarrus 
  and Union NC.

* TIMING...This afternoon through early evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* FUEL MOISTURE...Already seasonably low will likely drop 
  further with no significant wetting rain in the forecast 
  tonight or Friday.

* IMPACTS...Outdoor fires may easily grow out of control in 
  these conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, .or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NCZ035-056-068>070-502-504-506-508-510-301700-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.A.0002.210430T1600Z-210501T0000Z/
Alexander-Catawba-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
530 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Alexander, Catawba, Cleveland, Lincoln, 
  Gaston, Greater Caldwell, Greater Burke, Eastern McDowell, 
  Greater Rutherford and Eastern Polk.

* TIMING...This afternoon through early evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* FUEL MOISTURE...Already seasonably low will likely drop further
  with no significant wetting rain in the forecast until early
  next week.

* IMPACTS...Outdoor fires may easily grow out of control in 
  these conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

626 
WWUS82 KGSP 301243
RFWGSP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
843 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...DRY AND WINDY TODAY...

.Windy conditions are expected today behind a departing cold 
front. A very dry air mass will also move into the region before
the front, bringing relative humidity values down to critical 
levels.

NCZ035-056-068>070-502-504-506-508-510-010000-
/O.UPG.KGSP.FW.A.0002.210430T1600Z-210501T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KGSP.FW.W.0002.210430T1600Z-210501T0000Z/
Alexander-Catawba-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
843 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Red Flag Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is
in effect from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening. 

* AFFECTED AREA...Alexander, Catawba, Cleveland, Lincoln, 
  Gaston, Greater Caldwell, Greater Burke, Eastern McDowell, 
  Greater Rutherford and Eastern Polk.

* TIMING...This afternoon through early evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph at
  times.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* FUEL MOISTURE...Already low fuel moisture will likely dry out 
  further today in the windy conditions.

* IMPACTS...Outdoor fires may easily grow out of control under 
  these conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of 
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can 
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NCZ036-037-057-071-072-082-010000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0002.210430T1600Z-210501T0000Z/
Iredell-Davie-Rowan-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
843 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE PIEDMONT
OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Iredell, Davie, Rowan, Mecklenburg, Cabarrus 
  and Union NC.

* TIMING...This afternoon through early evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph at times.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* FUEL MOISTURE...Already low fuel moistures will dry out 
  further with the windy conditions today.

* IMPACTS...Outdoor fires may easily grow out of control under 
  these conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of 
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can 
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

HG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
241 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances return to parts of the region this evening with a
passing weak cold front. In the front's wake, high pressure will
spread back over the region for the weekend, keeping conditions dry
at least through Sunday. An active pattern will be in store for the
early part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 PM: A weak cold front and upper trough will cross the area
tonight. Despite relatively high PW values with this system, low
level flow remains more southwesterly ahead of the front. This flow
combined with the fast movement of the system and better forcing
remaining to the west will help keep better precip chances limited
to the TN border counties. Scattered showers will develop across the
rest of the NC Mountains as the system moves through. Isolated
showers at best expected for the NC Foothills and Piedmont, along
with NE GA and the Upstate. Gusty SW winds will continue across the
area ahead of the front. Winds will actually diminish a little this
evening or overnight before increasing again behind the front. Lows
will be around 10 degrees above normal as cooler air will be slower
to arrive.

Showers end and skies clear Friday as high pressure begins building
in behind the front. Expect very windy conditions to develop across
the mountains and foothills with windy conditions elsewhere. Wind
speeds and gusts will be high enough across the NC mountains and
Foothills for a Wind Advisory. Winds will not be quite as high
elsewhere, but gusts will be noticeable. With the cooler air mass
moving in, highs will be near normal across the mountains and up to
5 degrees above normal elsewhere.

Low RH values and gusty winds will increase fire danger across the
area. See the Fire Wx Discussion below for details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: Friday evening, the deep 500mb trough
driving weather through Thursday and Friday will shift offshore over
New England and the Mid-Atlantic, and midlevel forcing will rapidly
diminish through the evening hours.  With the frontal boundary
likely to be east of our CWA by 00Z Saturday, we'll see high
pressure building in at the surface from the outset of the period.
Consequently, low-level mean flow will shift west/northwesterly,
ushering in much cooler, drier air than we've seen all week.
Friday night and early Saturday, we could see continuing wind gusts
especially in the mountains, but the pressure gradient lingering
over the spine of the Appalachians should quickly loosen up after
daybreak and winds should be fairly benign through the day Saturday.

Despite this, RHs could drop to or even below 20% in many spots
across the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate Saturday afternoon.  Given a
shift to southerly return flow on Saturday afternoon as the high
pressure center crosses over the Piedmont, this should be the
last day of dry conditions as modest moisture advection picks up,
and RHs start to climb again going into Sunday.  We're likely
to see continued clear skies through Saturday night and into the
first part of Sunday, before a southern stream trough starts to
ramp up midlevel forcing as it lifts out of the southern Ozarks
Sunday afternoon. Combined with increasing moisture content,
this should allow cloud cover to build back in Sunday afternoon
and evening, with the first chance of rain returning to the area
late Sunday evening.

Temps are still on track to be near-normal on Saturday, jumping
to a couple degrees above normal on Sunday owing to continued
insolation and strengthening WAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday: An open shortwave will be swinging through
the southern half of the MS Valley at the beginning of the forecast
period. Confluence will begin to build in over the region during
this time and will set the stage for a relatively active extended
forecast. Moisture advection will work in from the Gulf as a broad
Bermuda High sets up shop over the western Atlantic and brings
in a warm return flow. Model guidance has the shortwave lifting
northwest of the area with a sfc low pressure system riding
underneath. This will support an increase in PoPs for the start
of the new work week. The consensus between the global models are
surprisingly in check with each other and gives me confidence in
some form of activity during the early part of next week. Most
of the activity will be diurnally driven as we enter a synoptic
summer-like regime. Diurnal PoPs will be included each day next
week as temperatures rise and so does instability overall. This will
allow for pop-up showers/thunderstorms and above-normal temperatures
through Wednesday before more changes takeover the medium range.

A second shortwave trough is expected to move across the CONUS and
track towards the CFWA by Wednesday of next week with an attendant
frontal boundary. The GFS is slightly more progressive than the
ECMWF as it has a fropa occurring late Tuesday into Wednesday
with good QPF response and a weak WAA regime ahead of it, which
could produce modest instability. Not considering this enough for
a severe weather threat, but has some potential. A post-frontal
regime will be in store for Thursday of next week and should drop
temperatures by a category or two compared to the first half of
the extended. The overall pattern remains fairly amplified, but
develops and continues after day 7 and we know how I feel about
forecasting past seven days.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Very gusty SW winds have developed and will
continue through the afternoon. Expect winds to diminish some this
evening but remaining gusty. Winds turn more westerly this evening
then NW overnight with Fropa. Very gusty NW winds expected to
redevelop on Friday. Chance of convection will be highest along the
TN border. This is close enough to KAVL for a PROB30. TSRA chance
too low to include for now. Precip chances quite low elsewhere as
shower have a hard time making it out of the mountains. Can't rule
out some low VFR cigs from time to time. KAVL has the best chance
for any restrictions, which were included in the PROB30.

Outlook: Dry high pressure builds in for the weekend with light
winds and VFR conditions. Precip and restrictions may return early
next week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  94%     High  92%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Fire Danger Statement from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for NCZ033-035-
     048>053-056-058-059-062>065-501>510.
     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
     508-510.
SC...Fire Danger Statement from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
527 AM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-300930-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
527 AM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop over the North Carolina mountains
near the Tennessee border this evening. Cloud-to-ground lightning
and gusty winds will be possible with any of these storms. A couple
of stronger storms producing damaging winds cannot be totally ruled
out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-300930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
527 AM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

On Friday, the combination of gusty winds, low humidity, and drying
fuels will increase the risk for adverse fire behavior. A Fire Danger
Statement may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

JPT