Areal Flood Advisory 113, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
742 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is expected to cross our area from the northwest
tonight into early Thursday and bring more widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region. Drying high pressure will spread back
over the region in the front's wake and linger through the first
half of next week.  Temperatures at the start of next week are
forecast to be a few degrees above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 pm EDT: The latest surface analysis places the approaching
cold front very near the spine of the southern Appalachians and
continuing to make steady progress southeast. Ahead of the boundary,
a second round of convection has formed along the Blue Ridge
mountains and moved just east of the high terrain into foothill
areas with 2500+ J/kg of late day sbCAPE. Anticipate that this
developing broken line of activity will gradually weaken as it moves
southeast into the lower Piedmont through mid to late evening as the
daytime instability is slowly lost. However, a few strong to severe
thunderstorms will remain possible, particularly over western NC
where shear is a bit better early this evening. Locally heavy
rainfall could cause isolated flooding where any training occurs.
Attention will then turn westward overnight with the boundary
finally pushing through the southern appalachians and reaching into
the lee of the mountains along the foothills by daybreak. The
convection-allowing models have very limited coverage along the
boundary overnight, but this may be underdone given the upper
support with falling heights to the northwest and upper jetlet
divergence. Will thus keep better chance PoPs over the mountains and
also in the lower Piedmont near the deeper moisture slightly closer
to the newly minted T.S. Mindy path well southeast of our area, with
slight chances in between.

Chance PoPs linger into the daylight hours Thursday, gradually
diminishing from late morning through the afternoon as drier/more
stable air overspreads the forecast area in the wake of the front.
PoPs range from less than 20% across the NW half of the area, to 30-
40% across the southeast third. Min temps tonight will again be
several degrees above normal, while Thursday maxes will be close to
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2pm EDT Wednesday: By Thursday evening, front will be well
past the area to the southeast, with a substantial scouring of
moisture.  PWAT levels collapse to below a half inch, with dryness
throughout the sounding. Friday and Saturday will, thus, be dry with
mostly clear skies.  Winds start out weak northwesterly to
northeasterly behind the front Thursday evening, becoming light and
variable Friday and Saturday as surface high pressure becomes
established.  Weak trailing upper trough gradually progresses across
the region Friday and Saturday, keeping thickness levels subdued
through the short term, and temperatures near normal for the highs.
Low temps will be a few degrees below normal for the lows Friday and
Saturday mornings due to lowered dewpoints.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2pm EDT Wednesday: Dry air remains in place Saturday night and
weak upper wave exits eastward, leading to weak, though somewhat
flat, ridging Sunday and Monday. This will keep much in the way of
any chances for precipitation out of the area until Tuesday at
least.  The GFS model is slightly more optimistic of some
precipitation in the late Monday to Tuesday period than the EC
model, which builds a stronger ridge over the region late in the
forecast.  In any case, there is little support for much rain in the
extended, with an outside chance creeping in Tuesday and beyond.
With some ridging and mostly clear skies, temperatures will be on an
upswing Sunday onward, reaching perhaps 5 to 10 degrees above normal
on Monday.  Lows will remain near to just above normal as dewpoints
will be slower to recover.  Light and variable winds abide with a
surface high and no moisture influx prior to Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: The second round of deep convection moving
east off the mountains will pose a thunderstorm threat to all sites
except KAVL through the mid to late evening hours. Then, additional
showers and isolated thunderstorms may form through the overnight as
the immediate frontal zone crosses the southern Appalachians.
Finally, the boundary will work southeast across the foothills and
Piedmont on Thursday, with small convective chances through early
afternoon, mainly at KCLT. Anticipate southwesterly winds turning
northwesterly with fropa, with breezy conditions setting up in the
cooler and drier post fropa air, especially around KAVL. Any
significant mountain valley fog should be relegated to the southwest
mountain river valleys overnight. Anticipate IFR to MVFR cigs just
ahead of the fropa east of the mountains through Thursday morning
before conditions lift quickly to VFR late morning through the
afternoon hours.

Outlook: Fair weather is expected through early next week, although
areas of mtn valley fog and low stratus will be possible each
morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...HG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
726 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW SHEFFIELD         35.96N 80.69W
09/08/2021                   DAVIE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED TREE DOWN ON CHURCH ON
            SHEFFIELD RD. ROOF DAMAGE WAS REPORTED.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
732 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

NCZ506-508-090000-
Greater Rutherford NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
732 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
McDowell and northeastern Rutherford Counties through 800 PM EDT...

At 731 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Rutherfordton, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Ellenboro, Bostic, Green Hill,
Thermal City, Sunshine, Union Mills and Caroleen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8170 3535 8170 3526 8174 3540 8210
      3557 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 290DEG 23KT 3547 8198

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
738 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

SCZ002-003-005-006-090015-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
738 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Greenville and northeastern Pickens Counties through 815 PM EDT...

At 738 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Pickens, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Easley, Pickens, Slater-Marietta, Table Rock State Park, Pumpkintown
and Dacusville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 8280 3505 8276 3505 8246 3480 8251
      3479 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 280DEG 8KT 3495 8270

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ARK

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