Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
326 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 3261

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 3261

- A chance of showers today and Thursday

- Cooler through Friday, frost Friday night

- Another chance of rain Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 3261

-- A chance of showers today and Thursday --

Sfc analysis shows a frontal boundary extending from eastern Iowa
through the central CWA. Temperatures are in the 70s south of the
front and lower 50s north of there. Radar reveals the pcpn is
farther north along the h8 front from northern Wisconsin to near the
Straits. Short range models indicate that we could still see some
showers as the h8 front moves through later today. A thunderstorm
may be possible south of I-94, but severe storms are not expected.

The sfc front will move south today and we'll see cooler highs than
yesterday, except in the far southeast which may flirt with 80
again.

Tonight will be dry and then rain chances will increase again
Thursday as a wave of low pressure rides northeast along the front.
Unlike today, there's much better upper support via a well defined
short wave. The ECMWF clearly shows some deformation type showers
well north of the sfc low that moves across Ohio. The NAMNest also
shows this.

-- Cooler through Friday, frost Friday night--

Once the sfc front moves through cooler air will flow back into the
state. Highs Thursday will be in the lower 60s and the mid 50s
Friday. If we can clear out Friday, we'll likely see some frost
Friday night as temperatures fall to around freezing.

-- Another chance of rain Monday --

Rain chances will increase late Sunday into Monday as another cold
front moves toward the state. Looks like pretty good moisture return
from the Gulf. Similar to this week, next week's cold front will
hang up near the CWA and another wave is progd to develop on the
front. So rain chances will linger into Wednesday. The ECMWF
develops an inverted trough across the Corn Belt Wednesday which
would bode well for rain chances here.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 3261

The shortwave approaching from the southwest has no thunder
associated with it currently. While thunder still can't be ruled
out after 09Z, decided the threat/coverage is too low to have it
in the TAFS and will only carry showers. Will issue AMDs if
things change.

VFR continuing through 12Z, but the frontal passage between 12Z
and 18Z Wednesday may bring a few hours of MVFR cigs. Westerly
sfc winds will gust to 20-25 kts from late morning through the
afternoon after fropa. A period of IFR is possible along the
lakeshore including MKG after the front goes by and winds go NW
off the lake.

Otherwise conditions mainly VFR behind the front later today and
tonight, but will have to watch for the possibility of MVFR cigs
dropping in from the northeast this evening, taking aim on LAN and
JXN.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 3261

Other than some patchy fog over the lake this morning, wind and
waves will be favorable for small craft. North winds 10 to 20 knots
will create 2 to 4 foot waves today. The exception to this may be
near the Points were waves may be closer to 4-5 feet.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...04
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
341 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-290745-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
341 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight chance of thunder south of I-94 this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Frost is possible Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ844>849-290745-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
341 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
722 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

MIZ046-281145-
Isabella-
722 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ISABELLA COUNTY...

At 721 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Mount Pleasant,
moving east at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Pleasant...      Shepherd...            Rosebush...
Delwin...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4347 8488 4364 8492 4378 8461 4347 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1121Z 253DEG 48KT 4359 8475

NJJ