Special Marine Warning 5, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
516 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

LATEST UPDATE...
Mesoscale Discussion

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 515 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Wake low related winds have developed north of the convection in
the Ludington area, with gusts over 50 mph recently reported at
the Ludington buoy and Big Sable Point. Using HRRR sfc pressure
analysis for short term/nowcast guidance it appears these stronger
wind gusts will eventually spread south/southeast with time, and
could impact the MKG/GRR areas by 7 am (in addition to the
convection coming onshore). Gusts to 55 mph and power outages may
occur during the morning commute time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

-Thunderstorms, with a risk of gusty winds early this morning

-Occasional rounds of convection Saturday through early Monday

-Warm through the weekend; sharp cool down early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

-Thunderstorms, with a risk of gusty winds early this morning

We'll be watching the line segments moving east from southern
Wisconsin early this morning. The first one north of MKE
extrapolates to the lake Michigan shoreline near MKG around 5 am
and continuing ESE from there through the early morning hours.
These segments are not too impressive but a swath/corridor of
gusty winds to 40 mph may affect the area from I-96 south early
this morning.

Once the early morning storms exit, some potential exists for new
storms, possibly strong or severe, to fire south and east of GRR
by afternoon. SB Capes in excess of 3000 j/KG are shown to develop
as dew pts near 70 push in from the southwest. Sfc convergence is
decent through around 4 pm before the low level flow becomes more
westerly with the cold frontal passage.

So the period from about Noon to 4 pm will need closely monitored
around JXN, after which time the main svr wx risk will shift
south of MI where SPC has an enhanced risk.

-Occasional convection Saturday through early Monday

Fast west-northwest flow aloft remains over the Grtlks Rgn through
the weekend. Models are in good agreement on the next shortwave in
this pattern dropping through Lwr MI on Saturday, possibly
triggering another round of convection. There are some slight timing
differences but this feature looks to arrive already by mid morning
after some sfc heating/instability has had a chance to develop.

Instability Saturday will be lower than today since dew points
will be a bit lower behind today's fropa, but capes around 1500
J/kg and deep layer shear over 35 kts will still be sufficient to
support the possibility of some stronger storms especially east
of Hwy 131.

After a brief period of quieter weather Saturday night into early
Sunday, a digging nrn stream trough over the Northern Plains
induces a decent low level jet from MO to srn MI by 00Z Monday.
Expect convection to develop on the nose of this low level jet and
returning warm front later Sunday, with some stronger storms and
locally heavy rainfall possible.

Could be an active period in west Michigan Sunday evening as
upstream trough continues to dig/deepen and cold front approaches
from the west. Convective threat looks to finally end early
Monday with the passage of that strong sfc cold front.

-Warm through the weekend; cool down early next week

Guidance continues to support highs of 85 to 90 through Sunday
although humidity not too high with dew points generally around 60
after today's frontal passage. Deep upper trough arrives overhead
by Tuesday behind the Monday's strong cold front, resulting in
chilly highs only in the 60s. That cold air doesn't stick around
long however with temps rebounding back near normal for mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Showers and thunderstorms will move over the terminals from
Wisconsin within the next few hours. Expect convection to persist
at the eastern TAF sites through 13z or so. IFR vsbys are
anticipated in storms.

Conditions will improve as the morning progresses with VFR
returning by the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Expect occasional gusty winds and briefly higher seas over Lk MI
early this morning as scattered tstms and the low level jet move
through. Otherwise winds and waves remaining below advisory
criteria through the weekend. We could be looking a somewhat lengthy
period of rough conditions on the lake from Sunday night through
Tuesday as a stronger weather system moves through and cold air
pours in behind it.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

MESOSCALE...Meade
SYNOPSIS...Meade
DISCUSSION...Meade
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Meade

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
431 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-190845-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
431 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms with gusty winds up to 40 mph are possible early
this morning, especially near and south of I-96. After these
storms exit around 9 am, additional storms may develop toward Noon
mainly south and east of Grand Rapids. A few of these storms
could briefly become strong to severe, especially near Jackson,
before the threat ends around 4 or 5 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A marginal risk of severe weather exists on Saturday mainly south
and east of Grand Rapids. Another marginal risk of severe storms
develops for Sunday afternoon and evening especially near and
south of I-96.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times over the weekend.

LMZ844>849-190845-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
431 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will produce gusty winds to 40 knots early this
morning over Lake Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms are possible from time to time over the weekend.
A marginal risk of severe storms exists Sunday afternoon and
evening over Lake Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
446 AM EDT FRI JUN 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 W LUDINGTON           43.95N 86.55W
06/18/2021  M43 MPH          LMZ868             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 45024 5 W LUDINGTON.

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
447 AM EDT FRI JUN 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 S LUDINGTON           43.95N 86.44W
06/18/2021  M38 MPH          MASON              MI   BUOY

            BUOY STATION LDTM4 LUDINGTON.

&&

MWS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
506 AM EDT FRI JUN 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 AM     TSTM WND GST     8 NNW LUDINGTON         44.05N 86.51W
06/18/2021  M57 MPH          MASON              MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION BSBM4 BIG SABLE POINT.

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
538 AM EDT FRI JUN 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE LUDINGTON         43.97N 86.40W
06/18/2021  M49 MPH          MASON              MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KLDM LUDINGTON MASON.

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
539 AM EDT FRI JUN 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 WNW ROOSEVELT PARK    43.22N 86.35W
06/18/2021  M36 MPH          LMZ847             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XMSK MUSKEGON NORTH
            BREAKWATER LIGHT.

&&

MWS