Gale Watch 4, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

550 
WHUS73 KGRR 170205
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1005 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021

LMZ849-171015-
/O.EXA.KGRR.GL.A.0004.210318T0900Z-210319T0600Z/
Pentwater to Manistee MI-
1005 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots, with gusts up to 35 knots
  possible. Waves 4 to 7 feet, highest 5 miles offshore. 

* WHERE...Pentwater to Manistee MI.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds and waves will peak on Thursday 
  afternoon and evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LMZ844>848-171015-
/O.CON.KGRR.GL.A.0004.210318T0900Z-210319T0600Z/
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-
1005 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots, with gusts up to 35 
  knots possible. Waves 2 to 5 feet, highest 5 miles offshore. 

* WHERE...St Joseph to Pentwater.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds and waves will peak on Thursday 
  afternoon and evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

562 
WHUS73 KGRR 170731
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
331 AM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021

LMZ844>849-171600-
/O.CON.KGRR.GL.A.0004.210318T0900Z-210319T0600Z/
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
331 AM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 
  knots and waves 2 to 5 feet possible.

* WHERE...St Joseph to Manistee.

* WHEN...From late tonight through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

556 
WHUS73 KGRR 171630
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1230 PM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021

LMZ844>849-180030-
/O.CON.KGRR.GL.A.0004.210318T0900Z-210319T0600Z/
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
1230 PM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Northeast winds may increase to gales to 35 knots late
  tonight and on Thursday. Winds will be off shore, so the
  stronger winds will be several miles off shore. Waves of 3 to 5
  feet are possible.

* WHERE...St Joseph to Manistee.

* WHEN...From late tonight through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

283 
WHUS73 KGRR 171933
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
333 PM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021

LMZ844>848-180345-
/O.UPG.KGRR.GL.A.0004.210318T0900Z-210319T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KGRR.GL.W.0005.210318T0900Z-210319T0900Z/
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-
333 PM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds increasing to gales to 35 knots overnight
  and continuing into at least Thursday evening. Waves 2 to 5 feet
  are expected in much of the area with the off shore winds. High
  waves, possibly exceeding 6 feet are forecast off of Little
  Sable Point.

* WHERE...St Joseph to Pentwater.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds and largest waves will
  occur Thursday afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ849-180345-
/O.UPG.KGRR.GL.A.0004.210318T0900Z-210319T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KGRR.SC.Y.0025.210318T0900Z-210319T0900Z/
Pentwater to Manistee MI-
333 PM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...Pentwater to Manistee MI.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds and largest waves are
  expected Thursday afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

DUKE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021

- Plenty of Cloud Cover Tonight into Wednesday Night

- Chances for Precipitation Wed Afternoon into Thursday

- Period of Dry Weather from Thursday Night into Monday

- Precipitation Chances Again Monday Night into Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021

-- Plenty of Cloud Cover Tonight into Wednesday Night --

There looks to be a fair amount of cloud cover across Southwest
Lower Michigan from tonight into Wednesday night. HREF low level
cloud cover shows fairly widespread clouds, outside of Wednesday
afternoon and evening when there may be some clearing in the
southeast half of the CWA, or from GRR to the south and east. The
cloud cover will keep a lid on both overnight minimum
temperatures and afternoon max's. Highs and lows will be fairly
close to normals for this time of year the next couple of days.

-- Chances for Precipitation Wed Afternoon into Thursday --

A shearing out, weakening shortwave moving through Central and
Northern Lower Michigan may bring a small swath of precipitation
to portions of our northern forecast area up along U.S. 10. It
looks like temperatures and the profiles will be a bit on the
fence for precipitation type. It looks like we may favor a bit
more in the way of rain across Central Lower and it will trend a
bit more towards snow across Northern Lower Michigan. Wednesday
night the precipitation will try to switch over to a bit of light
snow up along U.S. 10 with a rain and snow mix elsewhere north of
I-96. All rain is expected towards I-94. Precipitation amounts are
expected to be light in all areas, so little to no snow
accumulation is expected. The precipitation on Thursday will again
trend back towards mostly if not all rain before ending in the
evening. Best chances for precipitation will come in the south
towards I-94 on Thursday as we will be on the northern edge of the
precip shield associated with the low moving through the Ohio
Valley.

-- Period of Dry Weather from Thursday Night into Monday --

A fairly lengthy period of dry weather is expected from Thursday
night at least into Monday as ridging both at the surface and
aloft are situated across the Great Lakes. Temperatures look to
moderate through this time frame as 850mb temperatures warm to +5
to +7 degrees on Sunday. We have highs trending from the 50s on
Saturday and Sunday to near 60 on Monday.

-- Precipitation Chances Again Monday Night into Tuesday --

Next chance for precipitation will come early next week, but there
is some model disparity between the operational GFS and ECMWF.
That said, both the GFS and ECWMF still have the approaching
shortwave west of us in the plains. The GFS is much further south
with it down in KS/OK. The best chances for rain may come just
beyond this forecast period out on Tuesday night and Wednesday of
next week. At this point we have low pops on the order of 20-30
pct for Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Some patchy IFR ceilings persist across the far southwestern
portion of the state while other areas have transitioned over to
MVFR. Meanwhile winds are very light this afternoon and will
become more variable overnight into Wednesday morning.

We expect to see some breaks in the clouds particularly along the
lakeshore this evening and overnight, however most other areas
should see continued MVFR through tonight. Skies will begin to clear
Monday morning with all TAF sites expected to see VFR by the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Conditions on the Big Lake are currently quiet and they will remain
that way through tonight and Wednesday. Winds and waves will begin
ramping up Wednesday night in strengthening northeast flow. The
stronger winds are associated with a 1030mb high in the Northern
Plains and a low (around 1000mb's) moving through the Ohio Valley.
Winds will probably reach speeds Small Craft Advisory worthy
speeds late Wednesday night. Winds pick up further on Thursday,
potentially reaching gale force off shore. We have opted to match
the Gale Watch south of Pentwater from late Wednesday night into
Thursday night. Strongest winds will again be offshore, but you
will not have to go too far off shore to feel them.

Waves will begin to fill in along our shoreline Thursday despite
the winds having an off shore component. As an aside, these set
ups (stronger northeast winds) produce some of the cleanest wave
faces for surfers/body boarders in Western Lower Michigan. Waves
along the shore will likely peak in the 3-6 foot range Thursday
evening.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through late Thursday night
     for LMZ844>848.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Duke
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Thielke
MARINE...Duke

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
302 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-
170715-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-Mason-Lake-
Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-Montcalm-
Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-Ingham-
Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
302 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There could be icy patches on roads early this morning from
freezing drizzle and snow that fell overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1018 AM EDT TUE MAR 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     SNOW             HESPERIA                43.57N 86.04W
03/16/2021  M1.0 INCH        OCEANA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&