Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
149 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

- Flood risk continues into Sunday morning

- Severe potential today and Sunday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 AM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

- Today's Severe Threat -

Surface low is centered over Iowa at midday with a stationary
boundary stretching eastward across Wisconsin into Northern Lower
Michigan. Southwest Lower Michigan is situated in deep southerly
flow. Multiple mesoscale convective vort (MCV) maxima can be seen
moving northeast from Missouri through Illinois to out over Lake
Michigan. Southwest Lower Michigan should be in the effective warm
sector this afternoon. The MCV's should become a focus for
convective initiation this afternoon, likely in the vicinity of
Lake Michigan or over far Western Lower Michigan near the
shoreline. A threat for severe weather exists essentially between
100pm and 1000pm with a more focused threat seemingly between
300pm and 800pm based on SPC HREF guidance.

Mid level lapse rates are not steep, so hail is not a big threat
today. The 850mb low level jet increases to 40-45 knots this
afternoon with a 500mb mid level jet increasing to 50 knots. The
LLJ is from the SW with the MLJ out of the WSW. So, there is some
veering aloft. The main concern with those two features however
is the threat for damaging winds. We are expecting a mixed mode of
thunderstorm types this afternoon and evening from lines/bows to
some supercellular structures given solid deep layer (both 0-6km
and effective) shear in the 40-50 knot range. There is the
potential for a few QLCS tornadoes today where better low level
shear exists. 0-3km portions of the hodographs will increase in
both length and curvature this afternoon. We will be watching for
areas where the low level flow backs to the southeast which will
create favorable conditions for the possibility of a few tornadoes.

Areas of clearing and therefore heating are already occurring in
portions of Illinois and Indiana. These areas should lift into
Lower Michigan this afternoon where MUCAPE values will likely
exceed 2,000 j/kg. A good CAPE / Shear balance should be in place
for severe weather. Again, wind will be the main threat with a
chance for a few tornadoes as well.

- Morning Hydro Update -

As expected, rivers are rising all across West Michigan with several
days of heavy rain in the rearview mirror. Unfortunately, another
day of heavy rain lies ahead of us. 2-4 inches of rain are already
on the ground across most of the area, with more than 5 inches
having already fallen closer to Lake Michigan in some areas. As long
as today's heavy rain doesn't fall repeatedly in the same areas,
general rain totals should result in another 1 or 2 inches of rain
in most areas. This will keep rivers rising, and result in a lot of
bankfull conditions over the next few days, but no significant
flooding. If we end up putting down 3 or 4 more inches of rain over
some areas, we could end up pushing some of our rivers over flood
stages.

Perhaps the bigger risk is related more to the general flooding of
roads, yards, and small creeks that will be possible. Soils are now
saturated, and creeks are already running high. Thus, if we do get
some training of the heavier rain showers today over the same areas,
a significant portion of that rain will have nowhere to go, and will
result in flooding on these smaller streams and other low areas. A
flood watch remains in effect as the conditions for both of these
types of flooding remain over our neck of the woods through
tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Friday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

- Flood risk continues into Sunday morning

Deep southwest flow will continue to advect a very moist airmass
into the CWA during this time. PWAT values will remain around 2
inches. LCL values will be low and the CAPE thin and deep which
will support efficient rainfall. A low level jet will focus the
development of bands of showers and storms...while aloft
diffluence is noted. This pattern remains largely in place through
the period. It is already saturated from the recent very heavy
rain and streams are rising in many locations. Thus flooding is
possible...especially where any cells repeat over the same area.

- Severe potential today and Sunday

Deep layer shear increases this afternoon as surface based
instability builds. This occurs as another With low lcl's and
elevated helicity values we will need to monitor the tornado risk
in addition to damaging winds. Models are showing a low level jet
nosing in during the afternoon. Thus a risk for organized
convection is forecast to develop. The main time window looks to
be 18z to 02z. SPC has raised the risk to slight for the day 1
outlook.

We are less confident on the potential for severe weather on
Sunday. We do develop some instability but there appears to be
less focus. Deep layer shear is elevated but the main instability
axis may be south of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Showers and storms are beginning to develop southwest of Michigan
and are moving this way. We'll see storms at the terminals this
afternoon/evening and it's not out of the question a few could be
strong to severe. The storms will move out during the evening
leaving light rain showers overnight. Cigs/vsbys will improve
after 12z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

We will hoist a small craft advisory for the increasing winds and
waves for later today for parts of the nearshore forecast area. A
risk for dense fog will persist as well given the very moist
airmass over the cooler waters.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MIZ050>052-056>059-
     064>067-071>074.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday
     for LMZ845>848.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Sunday
     for LMZ844.

&&

UPDATE...DUKE/AMD
SYNOPSIS...MJS
DISCUSSION...MJS
AVIATION...04
MARINE...MJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1150 AM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-270830-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
1150 AM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A threat for severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon and evening
between 200pm and 1000pm. The greatest chance for severe weather
will occur south of a Muskegon to Mt. Pleasant line. Main threats
today will be damaging winds especially, but we cannot rule out a
couple isolated tornadoes as well. Thunderstorm movement today will
be rapidly off to the northeast at near 50 mph.

A risk for flooding exists through tonight. Additional rain through
the day could become excessive as showers and storms will likely
repeatedly move over the same areas. Urban and poor drainage
flooding in addition to overflowing small streams and creeks are all
possible. The ground is already saturated from the recent heavy
rainfall and streams are running high.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The risk for flooding and severe weather could persist into
Sunday. Additional storms are possible for much of next week which
could maintain the flooding hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening. Please
relay reports of severe weather to the National Weather Service.

LMZ844>849-270830-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
1150 AM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of dense fog are expected over Lake Michigan today. In
addition...thunderstorms will produce cloud to water lightning
strikes. The wind and waves will be on the increase today into
tonight...which could pose a risk to smaller craft.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible at times for much of the period.

Conditions are expected to be hazardous for smaller craft Sunday
for much of the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening. Please
relay reports of severe weather to the National Weather Service.

MJS/DUKE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
224 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HEAVY RAIN       FRUITPORT               43.13N 86.16W
06/26/2021  E4.22 INCH       MUSKEGON           MI   PUBLIC

            THIS IS A 2 DAY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

&&

WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
237 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N SPRING LAKE         43.10N 86.19W
06/26/2021  M1.38 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AV560 SPRING LAKE.

&&

WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
254 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW RAVENNA           43.20N 85.95W
06/26/2021  M1.24 INCH       MUSKEGON           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION RVNNR 1 NNW RAVENNA.

&&

WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
258 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW KENTWOOD          42.87N 85.60W
06/26/2021  M3.67 INCH       KENT               MI   PUBLIC

            RAINFALL SINCE THURSDAY THROUGH 7 AM THIS
            MORNING.

&&

WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
302 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HEAVY RAIN       FRUITPORT               43.13N 86.16W
06/26/2021  M2.43 INCH       MUSKEGON           MI   PUBLIC

            IN ONE HOUR AND 20 MINUTES AT FRUITPORT HIGH
            SCHOOL 2.43 OF RAIN FELL.

&&

WDM