Winter Weather Advisory 13, NWS Green Bay, WI

857 
WWUS43 KGRB 271713
WSWGRB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1113 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

...SNOW TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...

.A quick moving low pressure system, along with lake enhancement 
from Lake Michigan, will continue to bring accumulating snow to the 
area today. Hazardous travel conditions will continue through late 
this afternoon. The snow will end by mid-evening.

WIZ022-280300-
/O.CON.KGRB.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-211128T0300Z/
Door-
Including the cities of Fish Creek, Sister Bay, and Sturgeon Bay
1113 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 4 
  inches. Locally higher amounts are possible.

* WHERE...Door County.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Allow extra time to reach 
your destination. The latest road conditions for the state you are 
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information, visit us at http://www.weather.gov/GreenBay

Hykin

278 
WWUS43 KGRB 272025
WSWGRB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
225 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

WIZ022-280300-
/O.CON.KGRB.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-211128T0300Z/
Door-
Including the cities of Fish Creek, Sister Bay, and Sturgeon Bay
225 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 
  inches. Locally higher amounts are possible.

* WHERE...Door County.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Allow extra time to reach 
your destination. The latest road conditions for the state you are 
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information, visit us at http://www.weather.gov/GreenBay

Hykin

805 
WWUS43 KGRB 280031
WSWGRB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
631 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS 
THIS EVENING...

.Lingering light snow and freezing drizzle will produce hazardous 
travel conditions this evening. Motorists should use caution.

WIZ022-280300-
/O.CON.KGRB.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-211128T0300Z/
Door-
Including the cities of Fish Creek, Sister Bay, and Sturgeon Bay
631 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Light snow and freezing drizzle. Minor additional snow and 
  ice accumulations.

* WHERE...Door County.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road 
conditions for Wisconsin can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information, visit us at http://www.weather.gov/GreenBay

Kieckbusch

462 
WWUS43 KGRB 280249
WSWGRB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
849 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

WIZ022-280400-
/O.EXP.KGRB.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-211128T0300Z/
Door-
Including the cities of Fish Creek, Sister Bay, and Sturgeon Bay
849 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CST THIS EVENING...

The threat of significant snow and ice accumulations has ended, so 
the Winter Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire at 9 pm CST.

Patchy light snow or freezing drizzle may continue for a few more 
hours, and untreated roads may remain slippery, so those traveling 
through Door County tonight should use caution.

$$

For more information, visit us at http://www.weather.gov/GreenBay

Kieckbusch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1055 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 339 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

A round of light snow Saturday into Saturday evening, with another
possible Monday. Temperatures returning to near to modestly above
normal throughout next week.

The large scale pattern across North America will consist of a
longwave trough position in the east and a trough in the west.
Amplitude will be low through much of the period, with a broad
west-northwest upper flow across much of the CONUS. Substantial
amplification will likely to commence late in the period, as the
western ridge sharpens/consolidates near the West Coast and the
downstream trough deepens.

The cold air mass presently across the area will quickly shift off
to the east, allowing temperatures to warm back to near to
modestly above normal levels for the rest of the period.
Precipitation episodes will be limited by a lack of strong
synoptic systems and Gulf moisture, so the 7 day total is likely
to end up below normal.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 339 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

The main focus from this forecast period revolves around the snow
potential for Saturday into Saturday night associated with a clipper
system.

Tonight...The mid-level ridge that allowed for the dry conditions
across the forecast area today will slide off to the east tonight.
Meanwhile, the clipper system, expected to bring the next chance for
precipitation, will move across MN. Ahead of the system, WAA will
increase and bring slightly "warmer" low temperatures to the region
(middle teens to low 20s), compared to Friday morning's frigid
temperatures. Models indicate the potential for an f-gen band
developing over far northern WI after midnight, which could produce
a few flurries before the better forcing arrives later Saturday
morning. However, the potential for these flurries will first have
to overcome some dry air towards the surface.

Saturday...By Saturday morning, the clipper system will be located
in southeastern MN. At this point, the dry air near the surface will
decrease, and allow for snow chances to increase across the forecast
area. Models indicate multiple f-gen bands developing over the area
throughout the day, which will be the main focus for where the snow
falls. Generally, 1 to 3 inches of light to moderate snow is
possible with the highest amounts in east-central, far northeast WI,
and along the lakeshore. However, the lakeshore has another feature
that looks to cause their higher snow amounts, and most likely
locally higher amounts, a bay/lake snowband. Multiple models show
this feature developing sometime Saturday afternoon, but are
inconsistent with where it develops. In addition, south/southeast
winds along the lakeshore could bring warmer temperatures into the
boundary layer and cause rain to mix with the snow at times, which
could hinder snowfall amounts as well.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 339 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

A loss of mid-level moisture may allow the precipitation at the
beginning of the long-term portion of the forecast to transition
to freezing drizzle before it ends across most of the area.
Following that, a strong shortwave digging toward the Lake
Superior region will probably bring some snow showers back into
north-central Wisconsin late Saturday night into early Sunday.
Air trajectories will be favorable for the snow showers to linger
in the snowbelt later Sunday, through large scale subsidence in
the wake of the departing short-wave should limit the accumulation
potential.

Beyond that, some additional shortwaves will drop ESE through the
area resulting in a some additional chances for scattered/light
precipitation. Temperatures will oscillate between near and
modestly above normal, with Tuesday through Thursday probably the
warmest stretch of the forecast.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1051 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

VFR conditions are expected overnight, with a band of light snow
causing flight conditions to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR at the TAF
sites on Saturday. The exact time of arrival (due to initially dry
air) and placement of the snow band/lowest VSBYs (the latest models
have shifted farther north) is still in question. Lake enhancement
may occur on the Lake Michigan shoreline, and impact the MTW TAF
site during the afternoon. It is also possible that rain may mix
with snow at times there, but with light onshore winds, suspect any
mix to remain closer the shoreline. Some improvement in VSBYs
will be seen at the western TAF sites late in the afternoon, and
at the eastern TAF sites in the evening, as the low pressure
system shifts east.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Hykin
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
425 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-272230-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
425 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

A light to moderate snow is expected to create slippery or snow
covered road conditions Saturday morning through Saturday night.
Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible, with the
highest amounts across the lakeshore counties. The snow could
transition to freezing drizzle as it diminishes.

Another round of light snow could bring slippery travel conditions
again on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-272230-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
425 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.