Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
618 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
through early evening along the Lake Michigan and lake Winnebago
boundaries. Thunderstorms are also expected ahead of a weak cold
front over northcentral Wisconsin late this afternoon. They should
move south before dissipating tonight. Winds aloft are very light,
so any thunderstorms could produce very heavy rain. Gusty surface
winds and possibly small hail could accompany the strongest
storms. Lows tonight will be about 10 degrees above normal.

Slightly cooler and drier air will arrive Wednesday behind the
weak cold front, but high temperatures will still be well above
normal. Scattered thunderstorms are possible across central and
northcentral Wisconsin in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

The main highlights from this forecast period are the continued
above normal temperatures through the weekend, followed by the
potential for a cool down early next week. Until that cool down,
sporadic chances for showers and storms are expected with a more
significant chance late Friday night through Saturday.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Lingering showers and
storms across north-central WI will come to an end by late Wednesday
evening. Look for another humid night for Wednesday with low
temperatures well above normal in the 60s. An upper-level ridge,
with light winds aloft, will remain overhead into Thursday. This
will keep the warm, moist air in place. A surface boundary or some
sort of convergence from lake breezes appears to produce isolated
showers and storms in Upper MI late Thursday afternoon, which slowly
creeps south into north-central and far northeast WI Thursday
evening/night. In addition, a mid-level shortwave will slide
southeast over eastern Lake Superior/eastern Upper MI, which will
add to the shower and storm potential Thursday night. Do not
anticipate severe weather with these storms due to the weak bulk
shear. However, heavy downpours would be possible due to the slow
movement of any storms from the weak winds aloft. High temperatures
for Thursday will remain above normal with values ranging from the
middle 80s to lower 90s away from the lake, and upper 70s to lower
80s along the lake. Another mild and humid night is anticipated for
Thursday night as well with temps in the 60s.

Rest of the extended...While the boundary shifts slightly north into
Friday morning, the upper-level ridge will build right overhead.
This should keep most of Friday dry before a mid-level shortwave and
surface cold front moves into the western portions of the forecast
area Friday evening. The shortwave and cold front will slowly slide
southeast across the forecast area into Saturday evening. Showers
and storms are expected during this time, however, do not anticipate
severe weather occurring since bulk shear still doesn't look to
support severe storms, but the potential for heavy downpours will
remain possible. Beyond Saturday, the upper-level ridge breaks down
to a zonal flow Saturday night, then transitions to a northwest flow
on Sunday, which looks to continue through early next week. This
northwest flow will bring "cooler" and drier air to the forecast
area. High temperatures early next week look to drop back to the
upper 70s to middle 80s.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

Thunderstorms over northern WI will drift south and dissipate this
evening. They may make it as far south as AUW. Otherwise, expect
patchy fog to develop late tonight, with the most extensive vsby
restrictions expected near Lake Michigan. After the fog mixes out
early Wednesday, SCT diurnal cumulus should develop again. There
could be an isolated shower or storm over north central or central
WI later in the afternoon, but these are more likely to occur
west of our TAF sites.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......Hykin
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
252 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-092000-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
252 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible inland from the lake and bay.
The storms will be slow moving, and could produce locally heavy
rain and wind gusts to 40 mph.

Fog may reduce the visibility along the Lake Michigan shoreline
at times, possibly resulting in hazardous travel conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms over central and north-central
Wisconsin Wednesday. They are not expected to be severe.

Additional thunderstorms are possible at times from Thursday
afternoon to Saturday afternoon. It is too early to determine if
these storms will be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed tonight, but spotters are
asked to report rainfall over one inch or wind gusts over 40 mph.

LMZ521-522-541>543-092000-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
252 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of dense fog could make navigation hazardous on Lake Michigan
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Dense fog may continue to pose a hazard to boaters on Lake Michigan
into Wednesday morning.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

RDM/Hykin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
457 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

WIZ011-012-082245-
Florence WI-Forest WI-
457 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA BORDER...

At 456 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wisconsin Slough Natural Area, or 10 miles southwest of Iron River,
moving south at 10 mph.

Nickle size hail and heavy rainfall will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tipler, Wisconsin Slough Natural Area, Alvin, Nelma and Stevens Lake
Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4602 8882 4603 8878 4602 8878 4603 8877
      4602 8876 4603 8873 4601 8872 4601 8868
      4599 8867 4599 8862 4600 8861 4586 8857
      4585 8884 4605 8888
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 350DEG 7KT 4596 8873

Uhlmann

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
554 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

WIZ005-010-011-019-082345-
Vilas WI-Langlade WI-Oneida WI-Forest WI-
554 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FOREST...SOUTHEASTERN VILAS...
EASTERN ONEIDA AND NORTHWESTERN LANGLADE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 553 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over eastern Vilas, eastern Oneida and Forest
counties, moving south at 5 to 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crandon, Eagle River, Parrish, Headwaters Wilderness, Carter, Kentuck
Lake Campground, North Otter Creek Natural Area, Woodlawn, Three
Lakes and Elcho.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
the storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4608 8894 4587 8874 4574 8867 4572 8868
      4572 8866 4562 8861 4538 8863 4537 8942
      4598 8922 4609 8898
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 346DEG 5KT 4580 8897

Kieckbusch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
557 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

WIZ012-013-090000-
Florence WI-Northern Marinette County WI-
557 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FLORENCE AND NORTHERN
MARINETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 557 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Florence to near Norway to near La
Branche. Movement was south at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kingsford, Florence, Pembine, Goodman, Homestead, Niagara, Dunbar,
Aurora, Amberg and Beecher.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Green Bay.

&&

LAT...LON 4592 8810 4588 8810 4587 8807 4582 8814
      4578 8809 4579 8799 4577 8799 4575 8787
      4568 8778 4566 8783 4560 8777 4556 8779
      4556 8783 4554 8780 4547 8781 4543 8786
      4539 8802 4559 8843 4570 8843 4596 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 014DEG 23KT 4595 8816 4581 8787 4592 8749

Kieckbusch

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