Special Marine Warning 53, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
612 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

Strong warm advection and convergence at 850mb will continue to produce
elevated thunderstorms across northern Wisconsin this morning. Wind
gusts to 40 mph and half inch hail looks likely with a few storms.

Scattered thunderstorms are also possible across central and east central
Wisconsin, and an isolated severe storms is not out of the question
in the Fox Valley and lakeshore counties during the early afternoon
if surface based storms form ahead of the cold front. The front
will exit the area in the afternoon with clearing over all but the
Northwoods area. Highs today will be about five degrees above
normal in the east and near normal elsewhere.

Cyclonic upper flow and cool air flowing across Lake Superior will likely
keep clouds across northcentral Wisconsin tonight and Wednesday, with
scattered showers or sprinkles possible. Scattered showers and afternoon
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday as a jet streak moves across northeast
Wisconsin while another moves across eastern Minnesota. Lows tonight
and highs Wednesday should be close to normal.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

The 500mb ridge across the western United States will flatten out
by the upcoming weekend, resulting in temperatures trending above
normal Friday and Saturday before returning closer to normal late
in the weekend.

Cool cyclonic flow aloft will bring clouds and a chance of showers
Wednesday evening. Highest chances will be across the north with
some lake enhancement off Lake Superior. The showers should come
to an end during the evening with clouds on the decrease during
the late evening and overnight. On Thursday, dry conditions are
expected. The only exception will be across far northeast
Wisconsin where an isolated shower may pop up towards Iron
Mountain. A few of these showers may make it onto the Bay of Green
Bay into northern Door County. Highs on Thursday will be in the
upper 60s to middle 70s. High pressure is expected across the
region Thursday night, then east of the area on Friday with
readings a few degrees warmer than Thursday.

On Friday night, a warm front will lift northward across the area,
bringing a chance of showers to the area. A cold front will move
across the area on Saturday which may trigger a few showers and
thunderstorms. Saturday will probably be the warmest day during
the period with highs around 80 across east-central and northeast
Wisconsin. High temperatures on Sunday will be some 5 to 7
degrees cooler than Saturday. Otherwise, the next system will
bring back chances of rain for Monday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through midday
or early afternoon as a cold front moves across the area. IFR
conditions will accompany the thunderstorms, with mostly VFR
conditions otherwise. WInd gusts to 40 knots are possible with a
few of the storms.

Some clearing is expected during the late afternoon and evening
after the front goes by. MVFR ceilings are possible late tonight
through Wednesday north of a RHI to IMT line due to cool air
flowing over Lake Superior. Mostly VFR conditions are likely
Wednesday, though scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
as upper level disturbances move by to the north and west.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......RDM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
257 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-080800-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
257 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today. There is a marginal
risk of severe storms in the Fox Valley and lakeshore. Strong
winds and hail are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon. They are
not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will probably not be needed, but spotters are
asked to report winds over 40 mph and hail over half inch.

LMZ521-522-541>543-080800-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
257 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Gusty winds and large waves will make for hazardous conditions
for small craft through tonight. Scattered thunderstorms could
also pose a hazard today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The gusty northwest winds will diminish and waves will subside
Wednesday morning.

RDM/Eckberg

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