Areal Flood Advisory 14, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
810 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

New Information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Severe weather event beginning to unfold across the area. Deep
layer shear is very strong for July (50-70 kts), but buoyancy is
still limited. The main reservoir of hot/humid air remains to the
west, but is gradually advecting eastward toward the area. Anticipate
the storms will continue go slowly intensify/organize with time
as they drop southeast across the area, continuing to pose a
severe threat. But whether or not a high-end severe threat
develops in the area will depend on how quickly the more favorable
air mass advects in from the west.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Some elevated convection will move across north central Wisconsin
during the late afternoon hours, while more organized activity
forms across northern Minnesota in association with a surface low
and cold front. An elevated layer of smoke and significant middle
and high clouds has slowed destabilization across the area today,
but surface dewpoints have risen into the upper 60s to low 70s and
large scale forcing will become much more favorable this evening
as a strong upper trough moves across the area.

We expect an organized convective complex to moves across the region
this evening, with damaging winds and flooding rains the main threat.
Wet bulb zero heights are fairly high, so the threat of large hail
should be mainly associated any supercell thunderstorms that
occur. LCL heights and shear are somewhat favorable for tornadoes
with any discrete storms early this evening and for QLCS activity
later in the evening.

Precipitable water values are near record values, and will make for
an urban and small stream flood threat despite the quick moving storms.
The Green Bay and Fox City areas could have urban flooding with an
inch and a half of ran in an hour. The precipitation will end overnight
with cooler and less humid air arriving Thursday.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Northwest upper flow will make for cooler and drier weather for
Thursday night through Friday night. An upper trough and surface
cold front should produce sufficient instability for a period of
showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Forecast soundings predict
CAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/Kg thanks largely to cold
temperatures aloft and surface dewpoints in the low 60s. Gusty
winds and hail look possible.

Dry and cool weather should follow for Sunday through Tuesday with
somewhat warmer temperatures after that as upper ridging edges
closer from the Plains states.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

The primary aviation weather issue is the timing of the line of
intense thunderstorms expected to develop and drop southeast
across the area tonight. Tweaked timing a little on the 00Z TAFs,
and some further adjustment will probably be necessary. Anticipate
some fog/low clouds will form in the wake of the line as winds
temporarily diminish near the cool front dropping south through
the region. Gusty north winds are expected Thursday, along with
diurnal convective clouds.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Skowronski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
335 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-292045-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
335 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered non severe thunderstorms are possible across northcentral
Wisconsin late this afternoon. Some severe thunderstorms are expected
this evening, and a significant severe weather event is possible.
Damaging winds and local flooding rainfall are the main threats,
but large hail and tornadoes are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday as a cold front moves across
the area. A few storms with hail and gusty winds are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

LMZ521-522-541>543-292045-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
335 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms with strong winds, hail, and dangerous lightning
could create hazardous conditions for mariners tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

Winds and waves may approach small craft criteria Thursday afternoon
and evening, especially in areas adjacent to northern Door County.

Thunderstorms could create hazardous conditions Saturday.

RDM/RDM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
820 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

WIZ030-031-036-037-290200-
Waupaca WI-Shawano WI-Marathon WI-Portage WI-
820 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTAGE...
SOUTHEASTERN MARATHON...NORTHWESTERN WAUPACA AND WESTERN SHAWANO
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 819 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bevent, or 19 miles southeast of Wausau, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bevent, Wittenberg, Marion, Norrie, Tigerton, Hatley, Rosholt, Peru,
Eland and Elderon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
central and northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4487 8945 4494 8927 4468 8874 4450 8924
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 318DEG 37KT 4483 8930

EB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>