Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
547 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021

Tonight...a weather disturbance moves off the Colorado front range
along the Palmer Divide late this afternoon entering far eastern
Colorado around 6 PM MDT then into parts of western Kansas and
extreme southwest Nebraska around 8 PM MDT (9 PM CDT). Activity
should diminish late this evening and end around or shortly after
midnight. The threat for severe weather exists generally along
and west of Highway 83. Low temperatures are expected to be in the
mid 50s to around 60.

Monday...the forecast area will be under zonal flow aloft. Another
weather system per 700-500mb relative humidity moves into the area
west of Highway 83 toward late afternoon, continuing east after
midnight. Given the better 700-500mb moisture and upper jet support
the current forecast pops favoring areas along and north of the
interstate looks good. High temperatures are expected to be in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. Low temperatures are expected to be in the
low 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday...the upper flow shifts slightly to the northwest as an
upper trough moves into the area late in the day and out of the area
during the evening. Slight chance and chance pops continue along and
north of the interstate in the morning with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms moving into the northwest half of the area
in the afternoon associated with the upper trough. Precipitation
chances decrease quickly from northwest to southeast in the evening
with dry conditions after midnight as the upper trough exits and
moisture availability decreases. Blending the better performing
temperature guidance from the past 5 days yields afternoon
temperatures in the low 70s to low 80s, very similar to the NBM
guidance. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 40s
to mid 50s as a 1015mb surface high noses into the area from the
northeast.

Wednesday...dry conditions are expected. Blending the handful of
temperatures that have performed the best over the past several days
supports the NBM forecast highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021

At the start of the long term period, model guidance shows a north-
northwesterly flow over the CWA as the CWA is underneath the
backside of a weak subtropical trough on Wednesday night. On
Thursday, the CWA sees the flow aloft turn more westerly as a ridge
moves into the southwestern CONUS with the aforementioned trough
moving eastward. Going into Friday, long term models start to show a
stronger ridge developing in the northwestern CONUS though the GFS
shows a slower and more suppressed trough development compared to
the ECMWF. By Saturday, the CWA looks to be underneath the ridge as
it advances eastward. Going into Sunday, a trough starts to move
into the Pacific Northwest with ECMWF having a quicker progression
than the GFS. By Sunday night, the ECMWF shows the trough base north
of the CWA while the GFS shows the CWA underneath the front portion
of the trough off to the west. As there is some uncertainty here
between long term models, this situation will be monitored to see if
there is better agreement in future runs.

At the surface, the CWA looks to stay mostly dry during the long
term period as minimal precipitation chances are seen especially
underneath the ridge. Elevated fire weather conditions could
potentially be a concern for the far western portions of the CWA on
Thursday and Friday with forecasted minimum RH values near or just
below 20%. Near critical fire weather conditions are possible on
Saturday and Sunday for the western half of the CWA as forecasted
minimum RH values look to be as low as 13-14% in this area. The
limiting factor currently for fire weather is found in the maximum
wind gusts as they look to come close, but not not quite meet fire
weather criteria at a little above 20 mph each day. This situation
will be monitored in case these conditions change.

The Tri-State area expects daytime highs on Thursday and Friday in
the upper 80s to lower 90s range followed by highs on Saturday in
the upper 80s to middle 90s. Sunday's daytime highs look to be in
the lower to middle 90s. The Tri-State area sees overnight lows on
Wednesday between the lower 50s and lower 60s with the remainder of
the long term period seeing overnight lows in the middle 50s to
middle 60s range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 526 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021

VFR conditions are expected at GLD through the 00Z TAF period with
thunderstorms with strong outflow winds approaching the site by
01Z and moving across the site between 01-03Z. Storms will clear
out of the vicinity by 04Z. Light southeast winds will follow
overnight then transition to the southwest after 14Z.

MCK will have VFR conditions through much of the evening and
overnight hours with a potential for MVFR conditions between
09-15Z due to lower ceilings. Models are hinting at possible IFR
conditions as lower ceilings develop, but confidence is not quite
high enough to go IFR at this point. Easterly to northeasterly
winds overnight will turn to the southwest around 15Z, and then
more northwesterly after 18Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...076
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131300-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 /400 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There are Marginal and Slight risk areas for potential severe
thunderstorms from 5 PM MDT (6 PM CDT) to 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT). The
area of focus will be mainly along and west of Highway 83. The
primary hazards are wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to one inch
in diameter. The strong wind gusts may produce some blowing dust and
reduced visibilities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

There is a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon
and evening for areas mainly along and north of Interstate 70 and
west of Highway 83.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Thursday afternoon
across far eastern Colorado.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Friday, Saturday and
Sunday afternoons along and west of Highway 83.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed from 5 PM MDT (6 PM CDT) to 10 PM
MDT (11 PM CDT) for those along and west of Highway 83.

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