Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
532 PM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

Across the Tri State area this afternoon, hot conditions have
returned to the region. Temps as of 200 PM MDT are 90s area-wide.
The region does lie east of a low/trough currently over eastern
Colorado. Gradient tight thru the day from the south with areas
seeing gusts over 30 mph at times especially spots close to the
CO/KS border.

For the remainder of today into this evening, the main wx focus will
be on the potential for strong to severe storms first off, then the
potential for isolated fires due to the strong winds in spots and
dry conditions area-wide. There has been one fire already south of
Russell Springs.

There are already showers/convection starting up along the
low/boundary in eastern Colorado. This activity is slowly working
eastward into better instability, so expect storms to pick
up in intensification over the next hour or so.

Current activity is fairly close to the latest HRRR run showing the
current line tracking east-southeast thru about 03z-04z Tuesday
before lifting out of the area. Area of focus remains along and
north of the Interstate. With models showing inverted-V soundings,
looking for wind to be the main threat, but not ruling out some
large hail and heavy rainfall as well due to potential slow movers.

Going into Tuesday and Wednesday, upper ridge in place over the
central portion of the country, with mainly surface trough to the
west and high pressure east. Hot conditions are expected during the
2-day period and with no precipitation during the afternoon hours,
fire wx concerns crop up. Please refer to the Fire wx section below.

Models do hint at amplification of the upper ridge midweek with some
eastward movement late in the day. This will allow a shortwave to
lift thru the area overnight. Based on the current track west-
northwest zones will have best chances for convection.

For temps, little change from previous guidance/forecast. Both
Tuesday and Wednesday will have highs in the mid to upper 90s.
Overnight lows for tonight into Tuesday night, mid 50s west to mid
60s east. For Wednesday night, mid 60s west to lower 70s east.
Please refer to the Climate section below for info on potential
records for Tuesday.

For heat indices, with both days expected to be fairly dry, the
lower RH will allow for indices to be at or below forecasted highs.
Highest numbers east. There could be a few isolated spots
approaching the 100F mark.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

At the beginning of the long-term period, model guidance shows the
CWA having a southwesterly flow as it is underneath the inflection
point of an upper air trough-ridge pattern on Thursday. Going into
Friday, the Canadian low controlling the trough is expected to move
eastward into central Canada and push the ridge to the east with an
upper air high over the south-central CONUS region. By Friday
evening, models show the CWA beginning to turn more westerly with a
split flow off to the west. Long term model scenarios for the upper
air pattern begin to show some differences beginning on Saturday.
The GFS shows the CWA having its flow controlled by the subtropical
ridge portion of the jetstream which makes it westerly due to along
with a possible shortwave trough moving across the CWA on Saturday
evening. The GFS shows a similar pattern on Sunday with a trough
forming in the southwestern CONUS. On Monday, the GFS depicts a low
developing in central Canada during the day pushing a trough down
over the Northern Plains region by Monday night. The ECMWF shows a
similar Saturday pattern to the GFS however with an upper air low
developing over southern CA. On Sunday, the low cuts off allowing a
large ridge to move over the western CONUS turning the flow over the
CWA northwesterly. Going into Monday, the CWA's flow aloft stays
northwesterly underneath the ridge as the low stays out west off the
coast of CA. Both long-term scenarios do not appear to be favored
over the other, so this situation will be monitored in future runs
for better consistency.

At the surface, the CWA looks to see chances for precipitation on
each day during the extended period. On Thursday, a surface low
looks to move near the CO/KS/NE border bringing good chances of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the CWA during the
afternoon and evening hours ahead of a cold front with this low. The
cold front looks to pass through the CWA on Friday again giving the
CWA chances for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening hours. Models show another backdoor cold front slowly moving
over southwestern NE during Saturday which will bring more chances
for precipitation during the afternoon and evening hours ahead of
the front. Models show this front making its way through the CWA on
Sunday again giving some chances for precipitation. On Monday, a
stationary front looks to set up in northeastern CO and northwestern
KS which may allow for a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
in these areas. Exact timing of the passage on these boundaries
still varies between long term models due to the differing upper air
scenarios, so these will be monitored for better agreement in future
model runs.

The Tri-State area should see high temperatures on Thursday in the
the middle 80s to middle 90s range followed by Friday through Monday
seeing daytime highs staying in the 80s. Tri-State area overnight
lows for Thursday and Friday look to stay in the upper 50s to middle
60s with lows on Saturday and Sunday being in the upper 50s to lower
60s. The remainder of the long term period expects overnight lows in
the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 524 PM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

KGLD expects to see VFR conditions throughout the 00Z TAF period
beginning with southerly winds around 12 kts with vicinity
thunderstorms possible. Precipitation chances look to end by 01Z
with KGLD winds become southwesterly at 10 kts at 09Z. KMCK sees
VFR conditions as well starting with southerly winds around 12 kts
before seeing southerly wind shear of 40 kts at 2 kft at 05Z. By
09Z, KMCK winds decrease to around 7 kts before turning
southeasterly at 16Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 PM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

On Tuesday Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions are
expected along and west of Highway 27 in the afternoon. Humidity
values will reach criteria in the lower to mid teens, while winds
will stay below criteria.

On Wednesday Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions are
expected along and west of Highway 27 in the afternoon. Winds
expected to reach or exceed criteria(30-40 mph), while humidity
values will only drop into the upper teens to around 20 percent.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 PM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

Here are the sites with potential to reach or break record highs for
August 31st:

Goodland KS       102F/1985+
Burlington CO      99F/1985
Yuma CO           101F/1948

(+) denotes multiple years for a record

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...076
AVIATION...076
FIRE WEATHER...JN
CLIMATE...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
808 PM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-311645-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
808 PM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021 /908 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Isolated strong thunderstorms could produce 50 mph wind gusts and one
half inch hail southeast of a line from Jennings to Sharon Springs,
Kansas through the late evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Near Critical fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday afternoon
along and west of the Colorado border as RH values drop into the mid
teens.

Near Critical fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday through
much of the daylight hours as winds gust up to 30 to 35 mph across
the entire Tri-State area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through the remainder of tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
729 PM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

KSZ013-014-027-028-310200-
Wallace KS-Thomas KS-Logan KS-Sherman KS-
729 PM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Wallace, southwestern Thomas, northwestern Logan and southeastern
Sherman Counties through 800 PM MDT/900 PM CDT/...

At 729 PM MDT/829 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 12 miles southwest of Brewster, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Wallace, southwestern Thomas, northwestern Logan and southeastern
Sherman Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 10173 3931 10149 3927 10103 3884 10121
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 279DEG 21KT 3920 10148

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
733 PM MDT MON AUG 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNW OBERLIN           39.83N 100.53W
08/30/2021  M51 MPH          DECATUR            KS   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KOIN OBERLIN.

&&

TT

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
759 PM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

KSZ013-014-027-028-310230-
Wallace KS-Thomas KS-Logan KS-Sherman KS-
759 PM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Wallace, southwestern Thomas, northwestern Logan and southeastern
Sherman Counties through 830 PM MDT/930 PM CDT/...

At 758 PM MDT/858 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 7 miles northwest of Winona, or 16 miles south of
Brewster, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Winona around 915 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 10166 3923 10144 3927 10126 3920 10095
      3884 10121
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 280DEG 20KT 3913 10136

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
927 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

KSZ014-028-029-310300-
Gove KS-Thomas KS-Logan KS-
927 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Thomas, northern Logan and northwestern Gove Counties through 1000 PM
CDT...

At 927 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Winona, or 15 miles west of Oakley, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Monument around 945 PM CDT.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 75 and 79.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 10143 3922 10125 3912 10075 3887 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 293DEG 20KT 3910 10114

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
929 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

KSZ004-016-310300-
Norton KS-Graham KS-
929 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Norton and
northeastern Graham Counties through 1000 PM CDT...

At 929 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Edmond, or 13 miles south of Norton, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Edmond around 940 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3959 10018 3982 10003 3970 9963 3957 9963
      3957 9960 3937 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 293DEG 20KT 3965 9989

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TT