Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
512 PM MDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Through Tonight: SW flow aloft will continue to strengthen over
the central Rockies.. as broad troughing /cyclonic flow/ aloft
expands eastward from the Pacific Coast to the Intermountain
West.. yielding a somewhat deeper lee cyclone (compared to
yesterday) in eastern CO. 18Z surface observations and
radar/satellite data indicate that the lee cyclone is centered
somewhere invof the Lincoln and Kit Carson/Cheyenne county
border.. with an inverted surface trough extending northeastward
to St. Francis, KS and Trenton, NE.

This feature (the inverted sfc trough) will likely serve as a
focus for convective development around peak heating (21-22Z)..
probably in Kit Carson/Yuma counties CO or Sherman/Cheyenne
counties, KS.. where convective inhibition is weakest. With
steering flow from the WSW-SW.. updrafts should generally track
toward the ENE/NE (roughly along and north of a line from Goodland
to Oberlin).

Additional convection.. developing along portions of the Colorado
Front Range and Palmer Divide.. may progress ENE-NE into eastern
CO and far northwest KS late this afternoon and evening.

Effective deep layer shear this afternoon will vary considerably
from north to south.. ranging from 30-40 knots near the KS/NE
border to 20-25 knots invof I-70. A north-south gradient in
instability will also exist.. with MLCAPE values ranging from
250-750 J/kg in the south to 750-1500 J/kg in the north. With the
above in mind, the probability of updraft organization (and large
hail) will increase with northern extent, particularly along/north
of Highway 36. With steep low/mid-level lapse rates and strong
(1200-1600 J/kg) DCAPE.. damaging winds are possible in
association with any updrafts capable of producing lightning.

Fri-Fri night: With little change in the synoptic pattern.. expect
sensible weather conditions similar to previous days.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Aug 26 2021

At the beginning of the long-term period, the CWA is underneath the
front part of an upper air trough yielding a southwesterly flow
aloft. During Saturday evening, long term models show a shortwave
trough passing over the CWA as the trough moves eastward with the
ECMWF showing quicker progression than the GFS. Going into Sunday,
the GFS has the trough over the Northern Plains region while the
ECMWF has it entering the Great Lakes region. Both long term models
do show an upper air ridge trailing the trough with flow turning
westerly during the day and a shortwave disturbance passing over the
CWA as well as a tropical cyclone making landfall on the Gulf coast
on Sunday evening. On Monday, the upper air ridge moves over the
central CONUS which looks to be between the trough in the east and a
new trough building in the Pacific Northwest. This trough-ridge-
trough pattern continues going into Tuesday though long term models
do show some different scenarios. The GFS shows the flow aloft
turning northwesterly as the front part of ridge moves over the CWA
by Tuesday evening. The ECMWF begins with a northwesterly flow
aloft in the morning before the flow returns to westerly by the
evening as the trough to the west moves eastward a bit and
squeezes the central ridge. Model guidance differences continue on
Wednesday as the ECMWF has the front part of the western reaching
the CWA late in the evening turning the flow more west-
southwesterly. As another possibility, the GFS shows the western
trough- central ridge-eastern trough pattern staying in place
throughout Wednesday. The GFS shows some eastward movement in the
western trough by Thursday evening which changes the flow west-
southwesterly while an upper air high develops in northern TX. A
similar upper air pattern is seen in the ECMWF albeit the trough
is a little more east than that shown in the GFS. Due to the
amount of discrepancies seen between long term models, the
situation will be monitored to see if better agreement comes about
in future runs.

At the surface, the CWA looks to begin with chances for
precipitation before seeing a brief dry period and then end with
more chances for precipitation. Saturday afternoon and evening
sees chances for showers and thunderstorms associated with the
upper air disturbance for areas along and east of the CO border
with these chances increasing going eastward. On Sunday, a cold
front is expected to pass through the CWA (with passage timing
still remaining uncertain) which will help give the CWA chances
for showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Monday and Tuesday
expect to be dry due to the upper air ridging pattern. Wednesday
sees chances for precipitation throughout the CWA as 800mb
moisture is ushered in from the south along with a surface low
setting up in eastern CO. Chances for precipitation are also seen
on Thursday with a possible surface trough settling into eastern
CO. As for fire weather concerns, Tuesday afternoon looks to have
forecasted minimum RH as low as 17% of areas west of the CO
border. Maximum wind gusts in these areas continue to be the
limiting factor being at or below 20 mph. This situation will
monitored in case changes are seen in future model runs.

The Tri-State area should see high temperatures on Saturday between
the upper 80s and middle 90s. On Sunday, daytime highs cool to the
middle to upper 80s with a cold front passage followed by Monday's
highs being in the lower 90s. Tuesday's highs expect to be in the
middle 90s, Wednesday's highs stay in the lower to middle 90s, and
Thursday's highs range between the upper 80s to lower 90s. Tri-State
area overnight lows for Saturday through Monday expect to be between
the upper 50s and upper 60s with Tuesday seeing overnight lows in
the lower to upper 60s. Overnight lows for remainder of the long
term period look to be in the upper 50s to middle 60s range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 512 PM MDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Main concern for this TAF period are thunderstorms at both KGLD
and KMCK terminals in the first few hours. Thunderstorms are
already underway in the region, and could create gusty winds,
reduced visibilities in heavy rainfall, and perhaps produce hail
at either TAF site. Beyond this, cloud cover lingers behind
exiting storm activity through the evening, eventually dissipating
overnight. Winds become light overnight from the south/southwest,
then will be southerly by Friday afternoon at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...076
AVIATION...JBH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
215 PM MDT Thu Aug 26 2021

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-272015-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
215 PM MDT Thu Aug 26 2021 /315 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly
west of Highway 83 between 3 PM and 9 PM MDT. The primary hazards
are wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to one inch in diameter.

Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated
this afternoon, mainly south of Interstate 70 in western Kansas.
Outdoor burning is highly discouraged.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible during the afternoon
hours on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, mainly in eastern Colorado.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe or significant weather
to the National Weather Service in Goodland via social media or
telephone.

Vincent

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
558 PM MDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S BURLINGTON          39.23N 102.28W
08/26/2021  M61 MPH          KIT CARSON         CO   ASOS

            THE ASOS IN BURLINGTON REPORTED A 53 KNOT
            (61 MPH) NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUST AT 5:35 PM
            MDT (2335 UTC). A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM WAS
            IN VICINITY OF THE ASOS AT THE TIME.

&&

VINCENT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
602 PM MDT Thu Aug 26 2021

KSZ013-014-270030-
Thomas KS-Sherman KS-
602 PM MDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Thomas and
eastern Sherman Counties through 630 PM MDT/730 PM CDT/...

At 602 PM MDT/702 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 8 miles west of Brewster, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of western Thomas and
eastern Sherman Counties, including the following locations... Edson.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 22 and 51.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3920 10110 3920 10164 3957 10164 3957 10109
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 239DEG 21KT 3939 10154

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

024