Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
218 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Across the area this afternoon, skies are mainly sunny with a few
showers/storms starting to pop up along a boundary draped over the
southern CWA. The area is seeing mainly 90s for temps so far, with a
couple outliers in the upper 80s. Winds are north-northeast around
10-20 mph.

The main wx focus for this afternoon into the evening will be
thunderstorm potential, initially with the boundary to the south,
and then shifting eventually with a cold front that will drop down
into the area after 00z Friday, allowing for some increase in areal
coverage of potential rain/storms.

Models do differ as to the areal extent of expected precipitation.
Have continued to align pops with highest initially south of the
Interstate, then spreading north/south from there as the night
progresses. Any storms that form will be slow moving giving the area
the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Inverted-v sounding and
DCape values from SPC analysis range from 1100-1800 j/kg suggesting
that strong gusty winds(60-70 mph) are probable. Best dynamics for
strong to severe storms do lie over eastern zones where SPC
currently has a Marginal risk outlook. Can't rule out hail at least
an inch.

By Friday morning, remaining precipitation does begin to lift east-
northeast as models bring in upper level ridging from the west. The
remnants of the frontal boundary do linger south of the area most of
Friday into the upcoming weekend. There will be chances for precip
during this time as a shortwave/surface trough does interact with
the front remnants. SPC does carry a Slight/Marginal risk area for
portions of northeast Colorado for the potential of some severe
storms Friday afternoon/evening. Hail...wind threats probable...even
an isolated tornado is possible. A return to hot conditions on
Saturday along with ample low level moisture with dewpts in the 60s,
will help to provide decent instability for convection.

For temps, highs on Friday will drop into the 80s due to expected
cloud cover/precipitation. Western locales will start to see a
rebound on Saturday as 90s return. Eastern areas will remain in the
mid to upper 80s due to lingering clouds/rain. Overnight lows will
range from the upper 50s up into the lower and mid 60s, warmest
locales west of Hwy 25.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 106 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

At the start of the period, an upper ridge continues across the
western part of the CONUS, with north to northwest flow aloft. The
ridge slowly progresses eastward on Sunday ahead of an upper trough
digging into the Pacific Northwest. This disturbance gradually
shifts the ridge east and south over the Plains, resulting in dry
weather for Sunday through much of Tuesday. Meanwhile at the
surface, a once stationary front slides east across the region as a
warm front, further allowing temperatures to warm early next week.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday night through
Thursday when the aforementioned upper trough enters the Rockies and
a cold front approaches the High Plains. Some uncertainty remains
regarding the timing and strength of this trough, so some
adjustments may need to be made to the forecast as this timeframe
approaches.

A warming trend is anticipated to start off the long term, with
highs rising from the upper 80s/low 90s on Sunday to the low/mid 90s
for Tuesday. We should see a slight cool down thereafter, with highs
in the low/mid 80s on Thursday. Low temperatures range in the mid
50s to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Mainly VFR conditions expected for both terminals. Some patchy
smoke is possible thru 00z Friday, but may only hamper visibility
down to 6sm at times. VCTS thru 00z Friday as well, especially
after 21z-22z. Winds east-northeast 10-20kts. Some light/variable
before 19z for KGLD, and after 12z Friday for KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
859 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131500-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
859 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 /959 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Strong to low end severe thunderstorms may occur beginning at 3 PM
MDT or 4 PM CDT along Highway 40. Thunderstorm chances spread across
the rest of the Tri-State Area through the afternoon and tonight. The
best chance for storm activity will be along Highway 40 during the
mid evening. Main threats will be wind gusts up to 70 MPH, quarter
size hail and torrential rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Friday afternoon and evening low end severe thunderstorms may occur
for the western part of the Tri-State Area. Main threats will be
winds up to 60 MPH, quarter size hail, and torrential rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
522 PM MDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     HAIL             3 E ANGELUS             39.19N 100.63W
08/12/2021  M1.75 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER TO GOLFBALL HAIL

&&

TT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
545 PM MDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             WINONA                  39.06N 101.25W
08/12/2021  M1.00 INCH       LOGAN              KS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN WINONA, HAS BEEN ONGOING
            FOR 5-10 MINS

&&

TT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
546 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

KSZ013-014-028-130015-
Thomas KS-Logan KS-Sherman KS-
546 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Thomas,
northwestern Logan and southeastern Sherman Counties through 615 PM
MDT/715 PM CDT/...

At 546 PM MDT/646 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Winona, or 20 miles south of Brewster, moving
northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Thomas, northwestern Logan and southeastern Sherman Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 10136 3912 10148 3913 10148 3914 10149
      3925 10156 3933 10119 3901 10102
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 147DEG 17KT 3909 10127

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

024