Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
238 PM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Key Message: Thunderstorm potential increasing for the afternoon.

Outflow boundary from storm activity over the eastern part of the
forecast area is progressing west. Along it some storms have
already formed. Ahead of the outflow boundary weak surface
convergence and destabilizing of the environment as temperatures
warm.

Looking at the latest data that has been doing the best
today, storm activity may increase over the southwest part of the
forecast area as a subtle upper level short wave trough deepens
overhead. Due to storms already starting to form this early in the
afternoon with the better lift yet to occur, confidence is
increasing that additional storm activity will occur over the
southwest part of the forecast area. As the afternoon progresses
the environment does become more suitable for severe weather.

The more likely scenario to unfold looks to be increased storm
coverage over the southwest part of the forecast area, with storm
activity ending behind the outflow boundary. Main hazards will be
damaging winds and large hail and flash flooding. The damaging
winds will be the primary threat once storms merge together. Based
on the latest timing of the outflow boundary movement, it will be
west of the forecast area by 6 PM MT.

Worst case scenario is a line of storms form along the boundary as
it advances west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021

The forecast period begins tonight with with a ridge over the
plains. Some guidance indicates another round of showers and
storms during the early morning hours. Confidence in this
scenario is low at this time, however due to the poor handling of
short term guidance over the past few days, felt it was worth the
mention. Another factor that will need to be watched through the
night is potential fog development for the areas that received the
heavy rain during the afternoon, my confidence in this occurring
at this time is low however the past few mornings dense fog had
occurred over the eastern counties. Guidance has been trending
slightly warmer for overnight lows so I rose the temperatures
slightly into the mid to upper 60s for tonight. Monday, looks to
bring drier conditions as the ridge over the western CONUS slowly
begins moving to the east. High temperatures for tomorrow look to
be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Starting Tuesday, a large area of high pressure overtakes the
majority of the Tri-State area through the end of the work week. The
area of high pressure will produce widespread subsidence over the
entire area which will limit rainfall chances. Warm to hot
temperatures look to overspread the area as well as warming trend on
Tuesday will persist through the start of the weekend, with
Friday currently looking to be the relatively hottest day as
widespread upper 90s to low triple digits look likely. Heat index
values may go above 100 degrees especially in the eastern
counties, so an eye will need to be kept on potential heat
headlines in future forecast packages.

Heading into next weekend, significant uncertainty remains in the
forecast due to differing guidance. The ECMWF has the ridge
breaking down allowing northwesterly flow to become dominate,
while the GFS has the ridge persisting. Due to the uncertainty
this package will remain with the NBM solution which looks to be
similar to the ECMWF with the northwesterly flow allowing
disturbances to move towards the area causing the areas next best
chance of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021

VFR conditions forecast for TAFs. Main focus will be the extent of
the storm coverage with the incoming outflow winds from the storm
activity to the east of KGLD. Am expecting gusty winds behind the
outflow. Eventually winds will turn to the southeast for KGLD,
similar to what KMCK has done. Confidence in storms over KGLD is
too low to place a mention in the TAF beyond vicinity. Storm
activity should end behind the outflow due to the stable
environment.

KMCK should be done with storm activity. However, could see fog
overnight after 6z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JTL/TT
LONG TERM...TT
AVIATION...JTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1047 AM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191700-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1047 AM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021 /1147 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing quarter size hail
and wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible from 11am to 6pm MDT mainly
east of the Colorado/Kansas state line. Significant uncertainty
remains with the timing, location and coverage of the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

An isolated thunderstorm may be possible during the day Monday,
mainly along or east of Highway 25. Cloud to ground lightning would
be the main threat.

Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours
Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
135 PM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021

COZ092-182000-
Cheyenne County CO-
135 PM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 200 PM MDT...

At 135 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Cheyenne Wells, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cheyenne Wells.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 136 and 151.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3876 10261 3885 10229 3864 10218 3861 10225
      3861 10255
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 336DEG 10KT 3871 10244

Lundquist

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
144 PM MDT SUN JUL 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     HAIL             KANORADO                39.34N 102.04W
07/18/2021  M1.00 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

KMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
214 PM MDT SUN JUL 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             4 S CHEYENNE WELLS      38.76N 102.36W
07/18/2021  E0.75 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

            CALLER ALSO MENTIONED STORM PRECIPITATION OF
            1 INCH.

&&

KMK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
319 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

KSZ001-182045-
Cheyenne KS-
319 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 319 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Bird City, or 10 miles east of St. Francis, moving
southwest at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Francis, Bird City and Wheeler.

LAT...LON 4000 10162 3991 10141 3987 10141 3964 10155
      3975 10182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 031DEG 24KT 3978 10160

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
248 PM MDT SUN JUL 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE GOODLAND          39.34N 101.69W
07/18/2021  M1.50 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

KMK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
350 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

KSZ001-182115-
Cheyenne KS-
350 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 350 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Bird City, or 7 miles east of St. Francis, moving
southwest at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bird City and Wheeler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3990 10170 3984 10150 3968 10158 3979 10182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 032DEG 13KT 3979 10166

MRC