Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1130 AM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021

Today-tonight...an upper level trough and its associated cold front
remain on track to move steadily southeast across the forecast area
today and out of the area shortly after midnight. Abundant moisture
in the 850-500mb layer as noted by precipitable water values of 1.5
to 2.0 inches will accompany the front and with low level theta-e
convergence maximized along it spell likely chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. DCAPE values up
toward 1500 j/kg ahead of the front support some gusty winds up to
50 mph or so per latest HRRR guidance. Large hail up to 1.5 inches
or so also possible.  High temperatures are expected to range from
the low to mid 80s in far eastern Colorado to the low 90s from
McCook to Oakley east. Low temperatures are expected to be in the
mid 50s to low 60s. Will be watching for the possibility of
extensive stratus development a few hours before sunrise as the
NAM/GFS show abundant boundary layer moisture and the 00z HRRR
showing widespread low clouds.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...the big picture shows an upper level
high pressure area over northwest Arizona with northwest flow over
the area. Moisture availability is depleted and once the stratus
burns off by late morning plenty of sunshine is expected for the
afternoon. A clear sky is expected during the night. No
precipitation is expected. High temperatures are forecast to reach
the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...little change in the big picture other
than the upper high strengthening a bit and shifting closer to the
four corners area. 850mb temperatures rise into the mid 70s to mid
80s supporting high temperatures in the low to upper 90s. Low
temperatures will be milder with readings in the mid 60s to low 70s.
There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms during the evening
hours near the KS/NE border where some increase in mid level
moisture and jet energy moves through from the northwest around the
upper ridge. Only other item of interest will be southerly winds
gusting up to 30 or 35 mph during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021

A trough coming over the top of the western ridge supports a cold
frontal passage on Friday. GFS notably faster, and windier, with
the frontal passage Friday afternoon, compared to the ECMWF which
delays frontal passage until Friday night. Some question on
temperatures for Friday as a result, though the blended forecast
squeezes out one more hot day. Either way, will see a chance of
showers and thunderstorms with the front. Saturday and Sunday will
be cooler and breezy with a chance of wraparound showers/isolated
thunderstorms on Saturday with an upper low cutting off near
Kansas City. The upper low will slowly pull away Monday with the
western ridge rebuilding across the Rockies in its wake. This
results in a drying trend as well as warmer temperatures, with
highs back into the 90s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021

Thunderstorms make this a difficult TAF period to forecast.
Broken lines of thunderstorms have already developed this morning
and are very slowly moving east southeast near both terminals.
Have inserted VCTS as a result. How long storms will be in the
area is uncertain, and amendments may need to be made to
add/remove thunderstorm mention through the afternoon and evening
as storms diminish and develop. If a storm passes by a terminal,
reduced visibilities are expected in heavy rainfall, along with
chaotic winds.

Beyond storm activity, winds should be light around 10
knots or less, gradually shifting towards the north/northeast.
There may be some clearing from the northwest late this evening as
storms move out; however, stratus is anticipated to build in
Wednesday morning. Had high enough confidence to enter fog at KGLD
for a few hours.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JBH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1136 AM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-071745-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1136 AM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 /1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage early this
afternoon and continue into the evening generally east of a line
from Joes to Benkelman. A few severe thunderstorms will be possible
with the primary hazards being hail up to one inch, wind gusts up to
60 mph, and locally heavy rainfall which could cause flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Hot conditions return on Friday with heat index values near 100
degrees for areas along and east of Highway 25.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1155 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

KSZ001-061715-
Cheyenne KS-
1155 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

At 1155 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
St. Francis, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Francis and Wheeler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3967 10187 3985 10186 3984 10165 3961 10167
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 293DEG 19KT 3975 10180

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1213 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

KSZ003-004-015-061745-
Norton KS-Sheridan KS-Decatur KS-
1213 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN NORTON...NORTH CENTRAL
SHERIDAN AND SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

At 1213 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles northeast of Norcatur to 5 miles east
of Selden. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Norton, Selden, Norcatur, Jennings, Clayton, Dresden and Reager.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3999 9970 3956 10018 3954 10059 4000 10011
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 280DEG 24KT 3995 10006 3955 10047

JRM

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