Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
800 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
each of the next couple of days along with cooler than average
temperatures.

The blocking high aloft remains centered over the Pacific
Northwest and southwest Canada through Tuesday night with the
upper trough east of the Rockies extending from the western Great
Lakes region into the central High Plains beginning to weaken.
Weak northerly surface flow transitions to weak southerly return
flow late Tuesday into Tuesday night as the surface high over the
Rockies moves over the plains. Showers and a few thunderstorms
forming mainly over the elevated terrain to the west each
afternoon are expected to move over portions of the forecast area
each day with some enhancement expected with weak short wave
troughs dropping southward into the high plains in the amplified
upper flow. Expect temperatures to change little over the next
couple of days with a gradual warming trend developing by mid
week.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021

At the start of the period, high pressure dominates the west coast
as well as southern and eastern portions of the CONUS. An upper
trough can be seen over eastern Canada, extending southwest towards
the Great Lakes.

For Wednesday into Thursday, high pressure retrogrades south of the
High Plains with the upper trough just to our northeast. These two
features will more or less battle each other during this timeframe,
with the region under a west to northwest flow aloft. Weak
disturbances rotate around the base of the trough, resulting in
chances for showers and thunderstorms both days.

On Friday, a closed low travels down from Canada into the Ohio River
Valley, strengthening the trough. This system sticks around through
at least Saturday, but could sit there until Sunday depending on
which model you believe. Eventually, it shifts to the east coast.
Meanwhile, ridging along the west coast starts to nudge its way into
the Plains at the end of the work week, patiently waiting for the
aforementioned system to progress on. Will have to wait and see how
quickly the ridge is able to build into the region. For now,
precipitation chances linger, returning each afternoon and evening
Friday through Sunday. However, confidence in these chances is low.

A slight warming trend is forecast during the long term period, with
highs in the upper 70s through mid 80s on Wednesday rising to the
80s/low 90s for Sunday. Low temperatures range in the mid 50s to low
60s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 500 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the period at KGLD and KMCK.
The terminals remain under the influence of an upper level trough
over the area with periodic increases in mid level moisture moving
through from the northwest. This increase in moisture combined
with weak instability...primarily during the time of peak
heating...will support a slight chance to low chance for showers
and thunderstorms from the mid afternoon through mid to late
evening hours. At this time the scarcity of coverage precludes a
precipitation mention at this time. Otherwise, both terminals can
expect a northwest to northeast wind at speeds under 10kts through
the period. Its possible that outflow wind gusts could reach 30kts
or so through this evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1048 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281645-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1048 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 /1148 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1021 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

NEZ080-280345-
Hitchcock NE-
1021 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1021 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Trenton, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Trenton.

LAT...LON 4034 10076 4016 10102 4022 10119 4035 10107
      4035 10077
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 227DEG 11KT 4024 10104

DDT