Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
402 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Key Message: Storms across east Colorado forming into a couple of
lines or complexes, expected to continue moving east and will
cross the border in 1-2 hours. Winds will be the main threat with
the complexes.

Overall, the mesoscale environment is fairly complicated. There
are three main areas of interest at this time.

1. SW Nebraska. Looking at satellite imagery, it appears as though
earlier storms over southwest Nebraska (one currently in Red
Willow County) left behind an area of cooler surface air, from
roughly eastern Dundy County, Hitchcock County, and now western
Red Willow County. This area of cooler air has hurt an otherwise
favorable environment for severe storms as evidenced by the recent
quick dissipation of a storm over Hitchcock County. The southern
extent of this cooler air is roughly along the Kansas/Nebraska
border. It is possible storms form along this outflow boundary as
evidenced by agitated cumulus in Cheyenne and Rawlins Counties.
At this time and through the next hour or two, would not expect
NEW development in SW Nebraska. But, with sunny skies now over
this area, it is possible the environment modifies back into a
more supportive environment for severe weather.

2. NE Colorado into the border merger of KS/NE/CO. Currently,
storms are located across western Yuma County. They are moving ESE
into a more favorable environment (high instability, moisture
convergence, decently sheared) so it is possible storms continue
to expand in coverage and increase in intensity. Main threats
with these storms will be damaging winds as a potential complex
forms, but some small hail will also be possible with the
strongest cells. It's also interesting to note that there is some
agitated cumulus across northwest Kansas, so it's possible a storm
or two develops ahead of this line. If a storm is able to develop
ahead of the line in NW KS, then the hail threat would be higher
with isolated storms.

3. Eastern Colorado. A larger NW to SE oriented line has formed
across Lincoln and Kiowa counties in eastern Colorado. These
storms are moving northeast into a more favorable/unstable
environment so would expect storms to persist and perhaps get
stronger. Recent high resolution guidance (HRRR, 18z NAM 3 km)
favors this area of storms to move east into NW Kansas and become
the main/dominant storm complex. Not 100 percent certain this will
happen as the environment tends to favor the northern complex
(unless that complex hits the area of colder air across SW NE mentioned
in section 1). But, either way, both complexes in Colorado should
continue east across the border over the next couple of hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the entire Tri-State
area until 8 PM MT/9 PM CT. Hazards include up to 2" hail and
damaging winds gusts up to 70 mph.

This afternoon - Tonight... An upper level trough is moving east
across the Rockies and into the High Plains sending a cold front
across the Tri-State area this evening. Despite last night's
activity, the environment is favorable once again for severe storms.
A few shortwaves are expected to move across the area this evening,
helping these storms continue to move across the Plains. Storms are
already beginning to fire as a line of discrete storms move
northeast from SE Colorado and east from the Front Range. The severe
ingredients/parameters are weaker than yesterday; however, that may
not be much of a limit for these storms today as we are already
witnessing a few severe thunderstorms in SW Nebraska. MLCAPE is only
around 500-1500 j/kg and most of the weak CIN seen in the SPC
Mesoanalysis has degraded. Lapse rates are also weaker at 6-7.5 C/km
with effective bulk shear at 30-45 kts from the WSW/W. Shear is
currently at the higher end of the range east of KS Hwy-25 where
CAPE is also a little better. As the storms progress east across the
CWA, the storms are expected to become more widespread, possibly
into a more complex linear storm mode as the environment becomes
more favorable. A concern though is how well that environment holds
together after sunset. The hazards with these storms include large
hail up to 2" and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Frequent
lightning and heavy rain are also a concern this evening. Storms
area expected to impact the area from 4 to 11 PM MT. Overnight lows
are expected to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s tonight with
northwest winds around 10-15 kts.

Saturday - Saturday Night... The SW to NE oriented upper level
trough will continue to push into the forecast area; however, high
pressure over the eastern CONUS will keep the trough axis over the
NE panhandle. An inverted surface ridge will try to nudge along the
lee side of the Rockies. Clouds are expected to stick around much of
the day tomorrow, with a few areas clearing out in the late
afternoon hours in time to see a few rays of sunshine. There is
potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms beginning around
mid-day and continuing into the early evening hours. With the worked
over environment from the previous two days, no severe weather is
expected if any storms develop and move across the area.
Temperatures are expected to be cooler tomorrow with highs in the
70s and overnight lows returning to the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021

A stubborn pattern sets up for the beginning of the long term
period. Guidance shows an upper trough extending from the northern
Plains southwest towards the Desert Southwest. To the west, an area
of high pressure prevails in the Pacific Northwest while another
high spins over the east coast. With the region depicted either
along the trough axis or on the backside of the trough, we should be
under west to northwest flow Sunday through at least midweek as this
blocking pattern prevails.

While there is some weakening of the trough midweek, it looks to
deepen on Thursday and Friday when a closed low comes south from
Canada and merges into the trough. This setup results in chances for
showers and thunderstorms each day Sunday through Friday as
disturbances work their way through the flow. No day stands out for
severe weather at this time.

A warming trend is forecast through the long term period. Expect
highs in the 70s to low 80s on Sunday and Monday, followed by a
gradual warmup and highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s by Thursday.
Low temperatures remain mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected during the TAF period. A SW to
NNE oriented line of showers and weak thunderstorms are moving
within the western vicinity of both MCK and GLD terminals as of
17Z. Around 22Z, storms will begin to develop over eastern
Colorado and move east across the area, impacting GLD around the
00-03Z time frame and MCK around 01-04Z. Hazards with these storms
include large hail and up to 70 mph wind gusts. Winds are expected
to vary from NW to E/SE this afternoon ahead of any developing
storms with a few gusts possible around 20 kts. After the storms
move out of the area, VFR conditions should return with NW winds
around 5-15 kts through the end of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...RRH
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...KMK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
445 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-261300-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
445 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021 /545 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the entire Tri-State
area until 8 PM MT/9 PM CT for up to 2 inch hail and damaging wind
gusts up to 70 mph. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
move through the area from west to east through 11 PM MDT (midnight
CDT).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Hazardous weather is not anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated. We would appreciate reports of
hail in excess of one inch in diameter, wind gusts in excess of 55
mph, and storm related damage via telephone and social media.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
456 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021

COZ092-KSZ027-252330-
Cheyenne County CO-Wallace KS-
456 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTIES IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

At 456 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Weskan, or 16 miles west of Sharon Springs, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Weskan and Arapahoe.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
east central Colorado...and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3867 10212 3881 10226 3905 10196 3883 10172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 232DEG 24KT 3882 10204

MRC